Spread Options: Dr. Saturday’s Week 3 picks against the spread

After a week at 7-2-1 we squeaked out another week above .500 at 5-4-1. Our season record is now 12-6-2. Thankfully that doesn’t count the picks at the bottom. Those have been a disaster. Let’s see what Week 3 has in store.

Florida State (-7.5) at Boston College, 8 p.m. ET FRIDAY: Was Saturday’s game against USF a true indicator of what Florida State has in 2015 or was it simply a bad game? Running back Dalvin Cook’s monster performance made it a much more palatable game; quarterback Everett Golson did not start out well. We think Florida State bounces back. While it’s not a blowout, the Seminoles win by 10 or so.

Illinois (+9) at North Carolina, Noon ET: Why should we trust North Carolina? Hell, why should we trust Illinois? This line feels a bit like a prove-it game for the Illini, which is 2-0 with two blowout wins. Those two opponents have been Kent State and Western Illinois. Either team winning here isn’t surprising, but we like Illinois straight up if forced to choose.

Air Force at Michigan State (-24.5), Noon ET: We usually like to stay away from lines over three touchdowns unless there’s a compelling reason. The compelling reason here is the absence of Air Force quarterback Nate Romine, who is out for the season with a knee injury. It’s always possible that the triple option will give MSU fits and keep the game close, but without Romine, this could be over by halftime.

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Temple (-10) at UMass, 3 p.m. ET: Let’s keep the Temple train rolling. The Owls pulled away in the second half against Cincinnati thanks to four Gunner Kiel interceptions. But UMass just lost to Colorado, a team that had lost nine-straight games. The Temple defense should keep QB Blake Frohnapfel in check and Temple RB Jahad Thomas should have another big day.

Louisiana Tech at Kansas State (-9.5), 3 p.m. ET: This line seems a little low for Kansas State, who was favored by much more on the road at UTSA last week. Is it because we’re still not sure what the Wildcats are with backup QB Joe Hubener? Until the second half the Kansas State offense looked fairly impotent. But the defense has been stout so far. Louisiana Tech QB Jeff Driskel could struggle.

Nebraska (+3) at Miami, 3:30 p.m. ET: After watching BYU’s miracle win No. 2, the Cougars are probably better than we thought. That helps Nebraska. And Miami’s first half against Florida Atlantic in Week 2 was a bit adventurous. Call this one a hunch and nothing more, which means we’ll probably get it wrong.

Western Kentucky (+2) at Indiana 4 p.m. ET: It’s the second time this year that the Hilltoppers have been in a close to a pick-em game at a Power Five opponent. And we like them once again. As two-point favorites they pushed against Vanderbilt in a 14-12 win in Week 1. But the Vanderbilt defense proved against Georgia that it wasn’t a Week 1 fluke. Indiana does not have a defense close to Vanderbilt’s.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (+3) 7 p.m.: Colorado’s loss this season is to Hawaii. Colorado State’s is to Minnesota. Yes, the Rams lost at home and Colorado traveled to Hawaii, but how in the world is CSU getting points here in a neutral-site game? Look for Colorado State QB Nick Stevens to throw for multiple touchdowns.

Ole Miss at Alabama (-7.5), 9:15 p.m. ET: Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly has looked superb through the first two games of the season. But let’s also consider the competition level. While Alabama has shown a tendency to struggle against the deep pass in recent seasons, Kelly is getting one hell of an indoctrination into an SEC road game. Don’t be surprised if Kelly has a game resembling Bad Bo Wallace.

BYU (+16.5) at UCLA 10:30 p.m. ET: How in the world is this line so much greater than the game just above it? It’s also a game between two teams inside the top 20 with freshmen quarterbacks, though BYU’s Tanner Mangum is nearly four years older than UCLA’s Josh Rosen. The UCLA freshman should sparkle again, but given BYU’s flair for the dramatic so far, this shouldn’t be a blowout.

LOCKS OF THE WEEK

Nick Bromberg (0-2): Georgia Tech (+2.5) at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. ET: Can the Notre Dame defense stop the triple option? Maybe. But not enugh for the Notre Dame offense to have a chance. DeShone Kizer shouldn’t stumble too much in his first start, but without his starting running back and tight end he’s going to find it pretty tough to move the ball on the Yellow Jackets. This may not even be close.

Sam Cooper (0-2): Cincinnati (-20) at Miami (Ohio), 3:30 p.m. ET: OK, so my first few picks haven’t gone too well. I’ll chalk it up to bad luck. I mean, who could have predicted Marquise Williams would throw two INTs in the end zone against South Carolina or Malik Zaire would break his ankle at Virginia? The picks were good; the luck was bad. That’s what I’m telling myself. Anyway, this week I’m feeling good. Cincy put up 557 yards of offense but turned it over five times in a loss to Temple. Gunner Kiel and the Bearcats will bounce back against a Miami team that lost 58-0 to Wisconsin last week.

Graham Watson: Illinois (+9) at North Carolina: I am getting on the “Hire Bill Cubit” train and going with Illinois +9. I think the Illini are a better team now that coach Tim Beckman is gone and I think North Carolina is getting a little too much credit here. Wes Lunt and Geronimo Allison have been a great QB-WR tandem already this season and I see that trend continuing against the Tar Heels’ defense. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Illini won this game outright.