Week 3 Expert College Football Picks – 247Sports.com 
Once again, here are my picks for the games in Week 3 of the college football season. These picks were made using a least squares optimization model that assigns ratings to all FBS teams and uses those ratings to project the outcome of every college football game.
Historically, the model has correctly picked 52 percent of games against the spread over the last 10 years and 71 percent straight up over that same time. Over the past three seasons, the model has been even better, getting 56 percent of the games against the spread right and 74 percent correct picking them straight up.
Through the first two weeks of this season, the model is 70-66 (.515) against the spread and 129-32 (.801) straight up. It has been consistent week to week, going 27-25 (.519) against the spread last week and 43-41 (.512) the week before while going 60-17 (.790) straight up in Week 2 after going 69-15 (.821) straight up in Week 1.
The model has performed better in Power 5 games thus far. In the opening week of the season, it went 21-18 (.539) against the spread and then 28-25 (.529) last week. Straight up, the model was 48-5 (.906) picking games straight up in Week 1 and 46-8 (.852) last week. Overall in Power 5 contests, the model is 49-43 (.533) against the spread this year and 94-13 (.878) straight up.
As for this week’s picks, of note is the model picking the home seven-point favorite in each of the big SEC West showdowns in Alabama and LSU over Ole Miss and Auburn. The model also projects Georgia Tech to go to South Bend and not only beat Notre Dame but cover the three-point spread this week. It also has Kentucky, a three-point home underdog, upsetting Florida, along with Texas covering but not beating Cal and Clemson covering a 6.5-point spread on the road against Louisville.
For the latest odds, visit OddsShark.com.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
