Subway Series: 8 things to know on Yanks-Mets

This weekend the Yankees and Mets will play the second leg of the 2015 Subway Series in Citi Field. The Yankees took two of three from the Mets in Yankee Stadium back in April, but that was a very long time ago. Both clubs — but especially the Mets — look very different right now.

This is the first time the Yankees and Mets have both been in contention this late in the season since 2007. The Yankees lost to the Indians in the ALDS that year while the Mets infamously blew the NL East on the final day of the season. They were up seven games on the Phillies with 17 games to play. Not a fun ending to the baseball season in New York that year.

The Mets are in first place in the NL East with an 83-63 record, eight games up on the Nationals. The Yankees are 80-65 and 3 1/2 games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East. They’re 3 1/2 games up on the Astros for the first wild-card spot. Here are this weekend’s scheduled pitching matchups:

Friday (7 p.m. ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Steven Matz
Saturday (1 p.m. ET): RHP Michael Pineda vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard
Sunday (8 p.m. ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Matt Harvey

There is no window-dressing for this edition of the Subway Series. Both the Yankees and Mets are in contention and these three games mean a lot to their postseason chances. Here are eight things to know about the series.

1. The Yankees need these games more than the Mets.

Like I said, the Mets have a comfortable eight-game lead in the NL East at the moment. Our Sportsline Projection Model gives them a 99.6 percent chance of winning the division right now. They’re in a great position, even if the local tabloids want you believe losing two straight games to the Marlins this week is the start of a collapse:

The Yankees, meanwhile, open a three-game series against the Blue Jays in Toronto on Monday. That’s a huge series. One of the biggest of the season so far. New York wants to knock as many games off Toronto’s lead as possible this weekend to give themselves the best chance of passing the Blue Jays for the division title.

At the same time, the Yankees always want to increase their lead for the first wild-card spot. They won’t want to play the wild-card game, but, if they have to, they want it to be in their ballpark. The Mets have a comfortable lead and can relax a little down the stretch. The Yankees? They need every win possible.

2. The Mets have a great offense, and it’s not just Cespedes.

There is no denying the impact trade-deadline pickup Yoenis Cespedes has had on the Mets. He is hitting .295/.345/.661 (172 OPS+) with 17 home runs, 42 RBI and 2.4 WAR in 43 games since coming over from the Tigers at the trade deadline. Cespedes has been brilliant.

He is not the only reason the Mets have gone from averaging 3.48 runs per game in the first half to 5.46 runs per game in the second half, however. Look at some of these performances since August 1:

Travis d’Arnaud: .301/.379/.577
David Wright: .289/.379/.434
Michael Conforto: .312/.384/.587
Wilmer Flores: .304/.344/.504

Cespedes has been incredible for New York. It’s also unfair to the other guys on the roster to give him most of the credit. He’s been the headliner but is far from alone. Lots of guys in the Mets lineup are clicking right now.

3. The Yankees won’t have A-Rod this weekend.

Since the games will be played in Citi Field, there will be no DH, which means Alex Rodriguez will not start any of the three games. The Yankees are committed to A-Rod as their full-time DH, so much so that he has not played the field since May 23. They have resisted playing him at third base (or even first base) in their other interleague games in NL parks this season, and there’s no reason to think this series will be different. The Yankees want 40-year-old Rodriguez to rest whenever possible.

4. The rest will be good for A-Rod.

A-Rod is pretty hot right now — he’s hit six home runs in his last 12 games. They’ll miss his bat this weekend, no doubt about it. That said, Rodriguez seems to have benefited greatly each time he has had multiple days off in a row in 2015. Here are his combined numbers in the five games immediately following two or more consecutive non-starts this season: .312/.377/.538 with six home runs and 19 RBI in 25 games.

The Yankees head to Toronto for that huge series with the Blue Jays after their series with the Mets. They won’t have A-Rod this weekend, but they will have a rested A-Rod against the Jays, and that’s a pretty big deal.

5. Harvey is approaching his innings limit, whatever it may be.

You may have heard about this, but Matt Harvey is rapidly approaching his workload limit for the season. There was a big hullabaloo about it 10-14 days ago. The Mets have devised a plan to ensure Harvey doesn’t throw too many innings in the regular season and is thus available in the postseason, and Sunday is one of the final regular season games he will be allowed to pitch.

Harvey is at 171 2/3 innings right now and he is not expected to throw much more than 180 innings this year. That’s a bit of a problem. There’s been some speculation Harvey’s start Sunday will be restricted, meaning the team will pull him after, say, four or five innings regardless of pitch count. The Mets are in “get ready for the postseason” mode right now, and if that means cutting Harvey’s start short against the Yankees in a nationally televised game, so be it.

6. The Mets rotation has been quietly mediocre over the last month.

No team in baseball has as much impressive young pitching as the Mets. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz either are aces right now or project to be shortly. (Remember, they have Zack Wheeler too. He’s on the mend following Tommy John surgery.) Bartolo Colon and Jonathon Niese are tasked with being the veteran mentors.

Despite all those impressive arms, the Mets rotation has been quietly mediocre over the last month. It’s flown under the radar. Their rotation has a 4.54 ERA over the last 30 days, ranking 19th out of the 30 clubs. Here are the individual numbers for their starters:

Colon: 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 40 innings
deGrom: 5.24 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 34 1/3 innings
Harvey: 5.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings
Matz: 2.61 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings (just came off the DL)
Niese: 8.77 ERA and 1.99 WHIP in 25 2/3 innings
Syndergaard: 3.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings

Not too great aside from Colon and those two starts by Matz. I’m sure they’ll be fine, these guys are way too talented to post 4.00-plus ERAs over the long haul, but the last month has been a bit of a struggle. Good thing the offense has come alive, huh? Earlier this season the Mets would not have been able to survive rotation performances like that.

7. The Yankees bullpen has been quietly mediocre over the last month as well.

No team in baseball can match the bullpen combination of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller. They are two of the 10 best relievers in baseball, maybe two of the five best, and the Yankees have both of them protecting leads. The duo has combined for a 1.59 ERA with 207 strikeouts (!) in 130 1/3 innings this summer. Video game numbers.

Despite having Betances and Miller, the Yankees bullpen has been something of a weakness over the last month. The relief crew overall has a 4.45 ERA, ranking 20th out of the 30 teams, and the non-Betances/Miller relievers have a combined 5.40 ERA in 71 2/3 innings. That’s not very good! The middle innings are a definite weakness for the Bronx Bombers right now. Guys like Justin Wilson and Chasen Shreve look like they’re out of gas.

8. There are some ridiculous narratives flying around.

Understandably, bragging rights are on the line. They are every series, especially between two rivals, either divisional or geographic. Yankees-Mets is a special kind of rivalry, but lately the storylines have gotten out of control. For example:

Yeah. Three games in September won’t determine whether the Yankees or Mets are New York’s team. Fans won’t change their affiliation based on this weekend. Most won’t, anyway.

Big series like this always come with some ridiculous storylines, and this one is no different. There is only one true storyline though: Both the Yankees and Mets are in contention, and it appears both will qualify for the postseason in the same season for the first time since 2006.

Prediction Time!

I totally nailed my prediction for the series in April, right down to which team would win each game, so I might as well try again. After all, if you’re batting 1.000 in this game, it means you aren’t taking enough swings.

So here is my fearless prediction for this edition of the Subway Series: Yankees win two of three. They’ll win Friday’s game thanks to Tanaka and then win Sunday’s game by beating up on the bullpen after Harvey is out of the game. The Mets will still win the division anyway.

A-Rod and David Wright will meet in the Subway Series this weekend. (USATSI)

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.