Matchups: Silva's Week 2 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

Houston @ Carolina

Texans-Panthers has a 40-point Vegas total, lowest of Week 2. Carolina is a three-point favorite. Even after a slow opener, the best play on the Panthers’ side is Greg Olsen taking on a Texans defense that got gashed by Travis Kelce (6-106-2) last week. Olsen’s DFS ownership could be surprisingly low as fickle players are often consumed by recency bias. Very few people who used Olsen last week will use him again. … Even as Olsen and the Panthers’ wideouts struggled, there were promising takeaways from Cam Newton‘s Week 1. OC Mike Shula demonstrated a commitment to utilizing Cam heavily on read-option plays and quarterback keeps. Newton’s 14 runs against the Jaguars tied for the second highest single-game total of Cam’s career. Now facing a Texans defense that last Sunday coughed up three passing TDs to Alex Smith, I’m intrigued by a Cam-Olsen stack in DFS tournaments. … Jonathan Stewart handled 72% of the Panthers’ Week 1 snaps, piling up 22 touches. While the results weren’t ideal (81 scoreless yards), Stewart’s usage was, and it’s only a matter of time before Newton’s increased rushing usage begins creating space for Carolina’s running game as a whole. In Week 2, Stewart is a solid RB2 even in a tough matchup with a Texans defense that held Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis to 71 yards on 22 carries (3.23 YPC) last week.

Newton’s Week 1 target distribution: Ted Ginn 7; Jerricho Cotchery 6; Stewart 4; Olsen, Corey Brown, and Devin Funchess 3; Mike Tolbert 2. … The Panthers employed a four-way wideout committee in last week’s win over the Jaguars. Starters Brown and Ginn played 75% and 59% of Carolina’s snaps, respectively. Slot man Cotchery (44%) and rookie Funchess (38%) mixed in on a rotational basis. It may be awhile before a Panthers receiver becomes legitimately dependable from a production standpoint. Funchess’ opener was a disaster, dropping 1-of-3 targets, having another intercepted, and catching the third for a gain of nine. In Week 1, the Texans’ secondary didn’t allow a Chiefs wideout to top 52 yards. … Although there was pre-game chatter of Tolbert taking on an “increased role” due to Carolina’s inept receiver corps, Tolbert played only 25% of the Week 1 snaps and gained 18 yards on two touches.

As three-point road underdogs in what projects as the week’s lowest-scoring game, Houston has a team total under 19 points. It’s an ugly situation for Texans skill players. … The Houston backfield is especially ugly. Coach Bill O’Brien employed a three-way RBBC in Week 1 against the Chiefs, with Alfred Blue (10 touches), Jonathan Grimes (7), and Chris Polk (6) rotating throughout. Grimes actually played the most, seeing a 53% snap rate. All three are poor flex options against a Panthers defense that limited Jaguars backs to 70 scoreless yards on 17 runs (4.12 YPC) on Opening Day. … After Brian Hoyer committed two red-zone turnovers that led directly to two Chiefs touchdowns in Week 1, the Texans threw in the towel on Hoyer this week, installing Ryan Mallett at quarterback. Mallett’s job will be the same as Hoyer’s was supposed to be: manage the game and don’t give the ball to the other team. Mallett has a big arm, but isn’t very good. Mallett’s ball placement is poor, and he offers little to nothing athletically. In 2014, Mallett was traded away by Bill Belichick for a conditional seventh-round pick — the least compensation possible — and in 2015 failed to beat out journeyman Hoyer in Texans camp. In two spots starts last year, Mallett went 41-of-75 passing (54.7%) for 400 yards (5.33 YPA), two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Fire up the Panthers’ D/ST this week.

Mallett’s target distribution off the bench last week: DeAndre Hopkins 6; Grimes and Keith Mumphery 2; Nate Washington, Garrett Graham, Cecil Shorts, and Ryan Griffin 1. … Hopkins was already in great shape from a usage standpoint with Hoyer under center, but the fact that he immediately asserted himself as Mallett’s go-to guy can’t hurt. All six of Mallett’s throws directed at Hopkins were complete for gains of 8, 14, 12, 17, an 8-yard touchdown, and a successful two-point conversion. Carolina’s coverage can be stiff keyed by underrated LCB Josh Norman, but Hopkins is a borderline WR1 on volume alone. … The Texans started Washington over Shorts in Week 1, but Washington and Shorts logged almost the exact same snap count. Washington was the preferred target of Hoyer in the first half. Especially considering Washington had just one catch in the final two quarters, the pecking order could change with Mallett now quarterbacking Houston’s offense. Until we get more data, I would not want to trust Washington or Shorts as a Week 2 fantasy start. … The Texans’ tight ends played minimal roles in Bill O’Brien‘s offense last year, and it looks like that’ll be the case again this season. Even in a Week 1 game where Hoyer and Mallett combined for 47(!) pass attempts, Graham, C.J. Fiedorowicz, and Griffin combined for six targets and two catches.

Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Texans 17

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

After a dismal opener, the Vegas line makers expect a Week 2 bounce back for the Saints’ offense. Facing a Bucs “defense” that Marcus Mariota showered with four TD passes in his first NFL start, New Orleans is a whopping 10-point favorite with a 28.5-point team total. Stack your lineup with Saints. … One of fantasy’s strongest Week 2 running back plays is Mark Ingram, taking on a Tampa team that last week surrendered 123 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries to Bishop Sankey, Terrance West, and Dexter McCluster (4.56 YPC). Whereas Ingram managed nine carries as the Saints played from behind in last week’s loss to Arizona, positive game flow should allow Ingram to pile up rushing attempts in this one. His increased usage in the passing game is icing on the cake. … We’ll get more info on the Week 2 availability of C.J. Spiller (knee) following Friday’s practice. My early guess is he will not play against the Bucs, and even if he does he’d be hard to trust after missing almost all of training camp. Much more so than Ingram, Spiller’s return would pose a big threat to the usage of Khiry Robinson, who rotated with Ingram in last week’s loss to Arizona, playing 36% of the snaps and gaining 70 yards on 13 touches. Robinson would be a lower-end flex option if Spiller doesn’t dress.

New Orleans’ weak pass-catching cast may be problematic for Drew Brees all year, but he should be viewed as a high-floor QB1 in season-long leagues and rock-solid DFS cash-game option versus Tampa Bay. In last week’s embarrassing 42-14 loss to the Titans, Lovie Smith‘s defense generated just two hits on Mariota, whom PFF charted as “under pressure” on only four dropbacks. Even with a suspect supporting cast, Brees ought to be a shoo-in for a multi-TD game. … Brees’ Week 1 target distribution: Ingram 9; Brandin Cooks 8; Brandon Coleman and Marques Colston 7; Robinson 6; Ben Watson 5. … Cooks had a quiet opener (4-49), but did burn Patrick Peterson for a 30-yard gain and played 99% of the Saints’ snaps. Now taking on a Bucs defense that Kendall Wright rinsed (4-101-1) in Week 1, Cooks makes for an enticing DFS stack with Brees. It’s notable that through 11 career NFL games, Cooks has averaged nearly 18 PPR points at home versus 9.8 PPR points on the road. The Saints, of course, are at home this week. … Just as he did this preseason, Coleman played ahead of Colston last week. Coleman logged a 78% snap rate to Colston’s 62% and posted a 4-41-1 line to Colston’s 3-29 on the same target count. While Coleman is firmly in the WR3 discussion, 32-year-old Colston continues to look out of gas. … Hill only played 24% of the Saints’ Week 1 snaps, seeing zero targets. Watson is in control of Saints tight end duties, starting and handling a 92% snap rate at Arizona. Watson should be in consideration for TE1 streamers against a Bucs defense that permitted a combined 4-61-1 receiving line to Titans tight ends last week and has historically been vulnerable to tight ends due to Lovie Smith‘s Tampa-2 defensive scheme.

It’s worrisome for the Buccaneers that their Week 2 team total is just 18.5 points against a defense as leaky as the Saints’. Then again, it should be expected after Tampa’s offense managed 14 points at home against the Titans last week, seven of which came in fourth-quarter garbage time of a 42-14 beatdown. Bucs fans need to hope Jameis Winston makes incremental strides over the course of his rookie season. Fantasy owners need to stream defenses against Winston. … Doug Martin‘s ADP skyrocketed all August, driven by the logic that Martin “looked good” in preseason games. Martin did look good, but his team is awful, and that can crush the fantasy outlook for any runner regardless of talent level. The Bucs’ offensive line got bulldozed by Tennessee, while Martin was rendered a non-factor by game flow as Tampa Bay’s defense hemorrhaged points. Not a passing-game back, Martin got out-snapped by Charles Sims in catch-up mode. Until the Bucs get better, Martin is going to have weeks where he legitimately hurts fantasy owners because he isn’t even in the game. At the Superdome, Martin is a boom-or-bust RB2 whom the Vegas line suggests is likely to bust.

Winston’s Week 1 target distribution: Vincent Jackson 11; Austin Seferian-Jenkins 7; Sims 5; Adam Humphries 4; Louis Murphy 3; Martin and Bobby Rainey 1. … While still something to consider, those target totals may be deemed irrelevant looking toward Week 2 with Mike Evans (hamstring) set to return. Evans practiced all week and on Thursday deemed himself “100%” healthy. If he truly is, Evans has a great matchup against a Saints defense missing top CB Keenan Lewis (sports hernia), FS Jairus Byrd (knee), and Byrd replacement Rafael Bush (torn pec) in a game where Tampa Bay projects to be trailing and dialing up pass attempts. … After an inefficient 2014 season, V-Jax remained inefficient in the opener, managing 51 scoreless yards on his team-most 11 targets. It’s commonly a bad sign when aging receivers can’t parlay opportunities into yards and fantasy points. Jackson is 32 1/2 years old. Now sure to lose volume with Evans back, V-Jax is a shaky WR3 even in a plus matchup. … Although one of his TDs occurred in garbage time, it was promising to see Seferian-Jenkins log an 80% Week 1 snap rate and go berserk (5-110-2) against the Titans. In Week 2, “ASJ” will face a Saints defense that yielded a combined 5-86-1 receiving line to Cardinals tight ends last week, including blocker Darren Fells‘ 4-82-1 pummeling of Saints rookie DB Damian Swann and WLB David Hawthorne. Seferian-Jenkins is a low-end TE1 with room for growth.

Score Prediction: Saints 30, Buccaneers 20

San Francisco @ Pittsburgh

The left-for-dead 49ers shocked the world in their dominant Week 1 drubbing of the Vikings. They enter Week 2 in a prime letdown spot. Six-point road dogs coming off an emotional national TV win and playing on a short week, San Francisco’s team total is under 20 points, even against Pittsburgh’s swiss-cheese defense. … Impacted by recency bias in addition to his reasonable cost, Carlos Hyde will be an extremely popular Week 2 DFS play. Hyde’s floor is raised by Reggie Bush‘s calf injury, which will increase Hyde’s workload and quite likely his passing-game usage. While Hyde has entered the RB1 realm in season-long leagues, this game’s Vegas line plus the matchup have me approaching “El Guapo” with caution in daily fantasy. Pittsburgh’s big weakness is in the air; last year’s Steelers ranked a respectable 17th in run-defense DVOA versus 30th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense metric. In Week 1, Pittsburgh limited Patriots running backs to 70 scoreless yards on 20 carries (3.50 YPC). Fire up Hyde confidently in your re-draft leagues. You may want to tread lightly in DFS.

A Colin Kaepernick–Anquan Boldin stack would be the ultimate DFS contrarian play while the public jumps on Hyde. Or, if you’re understandably skittish on underachiever Kaepernick, just go with Boldin as an affordable WR3/flex. Pittsburgh’s defensive backs were skewered in the NFL opener, coughing up 288 yards and four touchdowns while Tom Brady completed over 78% of his throws. Pro Football Focus charted Steelers DBs Antwon Blake, Cortez Allen, and Will Allen with six missed tackles combined. Particularly if the 49ers trail in this game and Boldin piles up targets, “Q” should go to work after the catch. … Kaepernick’s Week 1 target distribution: Vernon Davis 6; Boldin 5; Garrett Celek 4; Torrey Smith 3; Hyde and Bruce Ellington 2; Jerryd Hayne 1. … Combined with his 99% snap rate, Davis’ team-target high was promising to see. Unfortunately, Davis committed an ugly first-half drop while losing five targets to rotational TEs Celek and Vance McDonald. Even in a great matchup against the Steelers, Davis is a dart-throw streamer only in Week 2. … Signed by San Francisco to a five-year, $40 million deal in free agency, Smith played just 60% of the 49ers’ Week 1 snaps and saw three targets, catching one for 11 yards. As he usually does, Smith will mix in some big games over the course of the year. You’re on your own trying to predict when they’ll occur.

Including playoffs and regular season, the Steelers have played five games without Le’Veon Bell over the past two years. They’ve gone 0-5 and averaged 16 points per game. The Steelers are 19-10 with a 26.7 points-per-game average when Le’Veon plays. Bell will miss one more week, while Martavis Bryant has three games left on his own suspension. Expectations for Pittsburgh’s offense should be tempered in the meantime. … While the Steelers’ nearly 26-point team total theoretically bodes well against the 49ers, I don’t think Ben Roethlisberger can be trusted as more than a fringe QB1 until critical passing-game weapons Bell and Bryant return. It doesn’t instill confidence in Big Ben that San Francisco physically imposed its will on Week 1 foe Minnesota, holding Teddy Bridgewater to 231 scoreless yards on 32 attempts last Monday night, along with five sacks taken and an interception. … One positive that came from Pittsburgh’s opening loss to New England was its run blocking. While Maurkice Pouncey fill-in Cody Wallace remained a liability at center, the Steelers were otherwise able to move the Patriots’ talented defensive front on the ground, consistently creating alleys for DeAngelo Williams. It was frustrating that Williams was repeatedly pulled in scoring position, but he played 84% of the Pittsburgh’s snaps and parlayed 22 touches into 132 yards. Seeing legitimate every-down-back usage, Williams is an RB2 against the Niners. The Steelers’ ability to create running lanes also bodes well for when Le’Veon returns.

Big Ben’s Week 1 target distribution: Antonio Brown and Heath Miller 11; Markus Wheaton and Darrius Heyward-Bey 7; Williams 1. … Nothing of special note stands out about Brown’s Week 2 matchup, but Pittsburgh’s high Vegas point total and the 49ers’ relative inexperience at cornerback beyond Tramaine Brock should set up Brown for his routine big game. Being virtually uncoverable also helps. … At least until Martavis Bryant returns, it would make a lot of sense for the Steelers to keep involving Miller heavily in their passing game, just as they did at New England. Miller is at least a reliable pass catcher, while Wheaton and Heyward-Bey are obvious duds. Across the league, only Tyler Eifert (12) saw more opening-week targets than Miller, who is an underrated if low-ceiling TE1. … A complete fantasy tease, Wheaton has now played seven games without Martavis in the lineup the past two seasons. Wheaton has secured 27-of-46 targets for 332 scoreless yards, good for a 3.9-catch, 47.4-yard average without a touchdown. He’s a WR4, and will be a WR5 when Martavis comes back.

Score Prediction: Steelers 23, 49ers 20

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