Week 3 college football odds: The 10 best over and under picks – CBSSports.com
I was once again treading water in Week 2 with a 5-5 week in over and under picks, bringing the season total to 10-10. It’s time to break through with a winning weekend in Week 3, and I’m looking to a few big SEC games this week to help get there.
As always, I’m using a little combination of stats, trends, SportsLine projections and my gut to make these picks. You can always check out SportsLine’s projections on totals and spreads for all of Week 3’s games here.
I’m kicking off this column with a healthy dose of under picks once again, starting with the SEC on CBS Game of the Week in the battle of Tigers in Baton Rouge between LSU and Auburn.
Auburn at LSU UNDER 49.5: Auburn is coming off of a miserable performance against Jacksonville State that almost resulted in one of the biggest upsets in college football history. The Tigers escaped that close call with an overtime win, but the normally explosive Auburn offense looked especially mediocre against the Gamecocks.
Quarterback Jeremy Johnson has consistently failed to read underneath defenders and going against a very solid LSU defense that could pose some problems. LSU looked solid, but not spectacular, against Mississippi State in a tight 21-19 road win.
LSU quarterback Brandon Harris had fits against Auburn in 2014 and will be looking to redeem himself from that 3 for 14 performance on the road last season. I don’t think it will be that bad, mainly because I don’t think he’ll get a lot of opportunities to throw the ball.
Auburn’s best defensive quality is rushing the passer, so I expect Leonard Fournette to see a ton of carries and the pace of this game to be played at the Tigers pace — which is slow. I think we get a low-scoring, slugfest of a game in Death Valley. At nearly 50 points, I think this total is about six points too high and expect this to come in under the number pretty comfortably.
LSU plays Auburn in what could end up being a low-scoring battle. (USATSI)
Stanford at USC UNDER 51.5: Stanford scored 31 points last week — 31! The Cardinal still came in comfortably under the number against UCF despite that “outburst” in my Lock of the Week (year/decade/century). Two of those touchdowns were late, garbage-time scores including a 93 yard screen pass TD.
I don’t expect the Cardinal offense to find points very often against the Trojans on the road. I do feel they will keep it fairly close with a miserably slow pace and contain Cody Kessler and the USC offense a fair bit. I will fade Kevin Hogan against the number until he leaves The Farm, and even then David Shaw is the king of plus-territory punting because he hates fun and points.
Expect me to pick the Stanford under every week until they prove me wrong (and more than once). This one will finish 26-16 USC and a comfortable under.
Ole Miss at Alabama UNDER 49: Ole Miss’ offense has been AWESOME in the first two games. I think this Ole Miss team is a better team than last year’s squad, particularly on offense where Chad Kelly is an upgrade over Dr. Bo Wallace. However, with Laremy Tunsil still out due to his interminably long NCAA investigation, the Alabama front four should be able to produce some pressure on Kelly.
As for the Tide, Jake Coker doesn’t have the mobility of Blake Sims and that could spell trouble against the Ole Miss defensive line. Derrick Henry has been tremendous early this season, but the Rebels are going to commit a lot of attention to the run game and force Coker to beat them.
This game should mirror last year’s slobberknocker in Oxford, and I think it’s another 20-17 type final score in Tuscaloosa.
Cincinnati at Miami (OH) UNDER 60: Miami (OH) can’t really score, which is a problem. The RedHawks laid an egg against Wisconsin on the road last week and could only muster 26 against the Blue Hose of Presbyterian in Week 1.
Sixty feels like an inflated total here, and even if Cincinnati flirts with 40 points this week, I’m not sure the RedHawks are going to be able to push this past the number.
Temple at Massachusetts UNDER 54.5: Temple might be a legitimately good team. The Owls handled Cincinnati on the road last week and have a pretty nasty defense.
UMass, on the other hand, is not great. The Minutemen posted 14 points in Boulder in their opener last week, and I don’t see them finding a ton of success on offense against the Owls. This could get a bit ugly at home for UMass, but even if it does this should stay under the number.
Utah State at Washington UNDER 44.5: A battle of anemic offenses and pretty good defenses. Chuckie Keeton just isn’t the same guy that he was prior to the injuries, and it’s become sad to watch considering he was one of the most exciting college players just a couple years ago.
As for the Huskies, that offense was much better against a tomato can in Week 2, but the Aggies have looked strong on the defensive end through two games this season. I think this ends very similarly to the Utah State-Utah game last week with a 24-14 final that holds under the number.
UTSA at Oklahoma State UNDER 55.5: Oklahoma State’s offense has been underwhelming to start the season. The Cowboys put up just 24 points in Week 1 against Central Michigan. That’s OK. It happens in Week 1, but in Week 2 they got Central Arkansas at home so they surely would open it up, right?
Not so much. A 32-8 win in Week 2 doesn’t have me particularly high on the Cowboys offense right now and against UTSA — which is coming off a 30-3 beating at the hands of Kansas State — I think this line shouldn’t be over 50 but here we are at 55.5. Give me the under.
Florida State at Boston College OVER 49.5: The Seminoles looked less than stellar against USF in Week 2 and just look like they can’t commit to what they want to do on offense. Everett Golson’s been timid and underwhelming to start his Florida State career, but Dalvin Cook has been an absolute stud.
You can run it a bit on Florida State, and that’s what Boston College does best. USF and Texas State each had over 130 yards on the ground and neither of those teams are the caliber of running team as Boston College. Passing on the Seminoles is a terrible idea as they have arguably the most depth of any team in the country in the secondary, but the Eagles are perfectly happy to run it all afternoon.
Despite this being a run-heavy game, I don’t think that means it’ll be low-scoring. Both are capable of breaking big plays in the run game and, if Florida State will allow him to, Golson can uncork a deep ball over the top with the best of them. This one could be a sneaky fun game up in Boston, and i like these two teams to put up some serious points and yards on the ground.
South Carolina at Georgia OVER 54: I know Connor Mitch is out. I know Georgia’s offense looked average against Vanderbilt. But here’s the thing, Vanderbilt has a better defense than South Carolina and there is no team that Spurrier likes to play against than Georgia.
The last three times these teams have played in Athens, the total score has averaged 78.7 points. Something about this matchup just brings out the best in both offenses, and I think that continues this week.
Chubb, Sony Michel and the Georgia running game should have a monster afternoon against the Gamecocks’ defense, and Spurrier will empty the playbook to put points on the board against the Bulldogs. Purely a gut play here, but I like the over.
Texas Tech at Arkansas OVER 65.5: Yes, I did just watch Arkansas lose to Toledo at home last week. They did so while trying to throw the ball around the yard for some unknown reason. This week, Bret Bielema goes back to basics and runs the dang ball against an atrocious Red Raiders run defense.
Texas Tech’s two opponents have rushed for 544 combined yards this season. Arkansas’ defense gave up 239 passing yards to Toledo last week. Texas Tech hasn’t thrown for fewer than 437 yards in a game this season.
Forget what happened in Fayetteville last week. This is going to be a track meet, with the Razorbacks running all over Texas Tech and the Red Raiders slinging it over the top of Arkansas.
Also, Texas Tech covered the over all by themselves last week. Yeah. Points, points, points.
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