Player Analysis: By The Numbers Week 6
Some weeks go well and some not so well. Before the international break I was gutted, I’d broken my unbeaten run in the AMCR head-to-head league, put up a poor showing in the official EPL and a couple of average scores in both Perfect XI and Fantrax Beat The Bloggers.
So last week I went on holiday to a location that had no wifi, just my mobile phone, tethered through another phone, and the respective mobile apps for each product. It was a learning curve. Some of the apps work brilliantly, some are a real struggle but they can all be used if you put your mind to it.
So, in this technologically restricted space, without my usual stats scenario based spreadsheets and what-if calculators, how did I do? Well, I think it actually wet rather well. I moved up to 24th in the AMCR league winning my head to head with 134.8, I came 10th overall in the Perfect XI Rotoworld league with a score 184.75 moving me up to 15th overall. I racked up my first half decent score on premier league with 51 points although that leaves me still down in 142nd in the Rotoworld League. Lastly I moved up to 190th in the Beat the Bloggers league after my seriously average start.
All good then but what do I learn from it? Will I be sitting at home working it all out on paper and using the apps? Of course not. To paraphrase a famous TV show, ‘if a blind man regains his sight he doesn’t walk around with his arms stretched out does he?’ I will however learn not to over complicate things and to not make endless revisions. It seems obvious but it’s amazingly easy to slip back into bad habits.
So, onto this week’s BTB goalkeepers:
Firstly let me apologise for the link – Imgur seem determined to change their hosting and not in a good way – i’ll be moving to a different provider for next week.
Some week’s it’s hard to see who to choose – this week it’s not. We have only three goalkeepers that over a 32% chance of being successful; Hart, Mignolet and Boruc. They all offer value for money because the other 17 are in such poor shape but Boruc, with a 35% chance of success and a measly cost of 1500 seems the answer to everyone’s prayers! He’ll definitely be my goalkeeper.
Predictions
I had a tweet this week from @andreofleon chasing up this article after my holiday last week and it got e to thinking – what do my readers really want from me? Was he desperate for the goalkeeper picks, the fixtures predictor, the predictor from last week, the poisson distribution model that was so well commented on last season? I didn’t know.
So this is an open call – please contact me through twitter – my handle is @funtasyfootball or through the contact form on my personal website here and tell me what you like or more importantly what problems you need solving? I want to try and move this column into the heading of ‘required reading’ and your input I what I need to get it there.
For those of you who do want the normal guidance on performance from Bet365’s odds you can find the download sheet under the fantasy football section of my website detailed above.
So, I’ll leave you now and I look forward to a deluge of suggestions for me to get working on for next time.
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