Three-Man Weave: Which 2015 All-Star will miss out on selection this season?

With the draft and the bulk of free agency now behind us, it’s time to start taking stock of what’s transpired this summer and how it all figures to impact the upcoming NBA campaign.

This week, we discuss: Which 2015 All-Star will miss out on selection this season?

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Eric Freeman: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers. Every January, NBA writers proffer their ideal rosters for the All-Star Game. With very rare exceptions, it is always most difficult to choose the West guards. The conference has been so good for so long that even a drop in form from an established candidate such as Tony Parker does not always open up a spot for a young star. The likes of Chris Paul and Stephen Curry make it pretty tough to get a long look.

What Lillard has accomplished the last two seasons is therefore pretty remarkable. The now 25-year-old followed up his 2013 Rookie of the Year award with All-Star berths in each of the next two seasons (albeit as an injury replacement in 2015) as the Blazers established themselves as no-doubt playoff participants. Along with LaMarcus Aldridge, Lillard gave the Blazers two nationally relevant stars capable of lifting the team to contention … provided that the 13 other guys didn’t get hurt and leave them seriously shorthanded for a first-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Aldridge figures to join at least one of his new San Antonio Spurs teammates in Toronto for 2016’s All-Star Weekend, but Lillard can probably start planning a vacation now. With the Blazers set to rebuild, Lillard should lose whatever advantage he had in a crowded field. That does not mean his production will dip. In fact, Lillard would seem likely to improve upon his 21 points-per-game average as he soaks up more possessions in what figures to be an offense centered around his best attributes. Unless the Blazers emerge as a first-half surprise, though, the standings just won’t do many favors for their star.

Such is life in the West, where a player can improve personally and still see his reputation dip to the lowest levels of his career. Up until now, Lillard has experienced a pretty steady upward trajectory from highly impressive rookie to marketable star on a solid team. Aldridge’s departure poses the first serious challenge of his time in Portland, one that should test both his ceiling and that of the team. Whenever Lillard makes his next All-Star team, he’ll certainly have earned it.

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Dan Devine: Is it cheating to say “one of the four Atlanta Hawks who made it last year?” Penciling Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver into the 2016 East squad means you’re betting that Mike Budenholzer’s crew will rampage through the conference this winter the same way they did last one, which seems like an awfully tall order.

Plus, it feels like there’s a chance for a revival of Eastern All-Star talent. Paul George is back in the fold. A more comfortable and much wealthier Kevin Love could return to his All-NBA ways during Year 2 in Cleveland. Great leaps forward might be in the offing for rising wings Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bradley Beal; Goran Dragic will get a chance to hit the ground running in his first full season alongside the for-now-healthy-again Dwyane Wade in Miami; Stan Van Gundy’s linchpin pick-and-roll combo of the re-upped Reggie Jackson and about-to-be-maxed-out Andre Drummond will take aim at lifting the Detroit Pistons out of the doldrums; etc.

If George and Love regain their old form, and if a couple of the others reach a new level, the competition for reserve slots in the East could grow fierce enough that it becomes impossible for four members of the same team to make it, unless they all post exceptionally gaudy individual numbers or said team manages to once again win 80 percent of its games before the break. (Again: this seems like a long shot.)

Of the four, I’d peg Korver, an injury replacement for Wade last season, as the least likely to make the return trip. While the veteran sniper remains a critical cog in Atlanta’s motion offense, his postseason struggles showed that the right schemes can slow or even stop him, and it could take him some time to rediscover his rhythm and proper alignment after a summer of rehabilitating after ankle and elbow surgeries.

If you do consider that cheating — man, you’re a tough crowd — I’ll go with Tim Duncan.

I don’t expect the legend to take a demonstrable step back in game-to-game performance, not after turning in arguably the most productive season ever by a 38-year-old and earning his 15th selections to both the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams. But San Antonio adding Aldridge and David West in the frontcourt, and with Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard’s star on the rise, it seems likely Duncan will continue his gradual recession from centerpiece to complementary piece as the Spurs try to transition to new leadership while remaining as excellent as they’ve been ever since Duncan and Gregg Popovich joined forces.

If Duncan can play the background (and man the backline) while Aldridge, Leonard and Parker get the praise, helping the Spurs remain among the West’s elite while keeping a low-enough profile to get a long midwinter break without having “to do media six times before playing in the game for five minutes,” well, I’m guessing Tim wouldn’t mind that too much.

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Ben Rohrbach: Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers.

Hear me out for a second.

This is more a commentary on the quality and consistency of so many of the current All-Stars — and the level of competition beyond last year’s roster for the 25 spots available annually — than a statement about the future of Paul’s already illustrious career.

Among players whose careers are in the books, any list of the greatest point guards of the past quarter-century not named Magic Johnson must include (in no particular order): Isiah Thomas, John Stockton, Gary Payton, Jason Kidd and Steve Nash. Paul is sure to join that list; all that’s in doubt is when his career will come to a close.

Paul’s career usage percentage — the percentage of his team’s plays that he’s “used” (his possessions resulting in field goal attempts, free-throw attempts or turnovers) — is 23.7 percent, and he’s hit that number exactly in each of the past two seasons.

Of the players who cracked the NBA’s top 250 in career usage percentage, there are as many point guards whose careers barely reached their 30th birthday (i.e., Gilbert Arenas, Stephon Marbury) as those who continued success beyond their third decade in existence. And among the aforementioned group, only Thomas made that list of 250, as his career 25.3 usage percentage comes in at No. 62 (Paul is 111th). 

Considering Paul turned 30 this past May — during a season in which he averaged 35.1 minutes while playing 94 combined regular-season and playoff games — let’s take a look at Thomas’ per-game averages before and after his 30th birthday, per Basketball-Reference.com:

Before 30 (10 seasons): 19.8 points (52.1 true shooting percentage), 9.7 assists (3.9 turnovers), 3.7 rebounds and 2.0 steals in 36.7 minutes per game, 18.8 Player Efficiency Rating

After 30 (three seasons): 17.2 points (49.5 TS%), 7.6 assists (3.4 turnovers), 3.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals in 35.3 minutes per game, 15.6 PER

By comparison, Paul’s production has been even better than Thomas’ to this point:

Before 30 (10 seasons): 18.7 points (57.8 TS%), 9.9 assists (2.4 turnovers), 4.4 rebounds and 2.3 steals in 36.2 minutes per game, 25.6 PER

Granted, Thomas’ career was cut short by an Achilles tendon tear at age 32, but he had already decided to retire at season’s end in 1993-94. Regardless, his production dip is a testament to the toll taken on one’s body by being both a prolific playmaker and scorer, particularly when you’re roughly 6 feet tall. Considering Paul also offers All-Defensive effort, we can at least begin to wonder when it will all catch up to him. 

After all, Paul has one knee surgery in his past, and a hamstring injury during the most recent playoffs may have cost the Clippers the Western Conference semifinals. (Ironically, Paul missed a Game 2 loss to the Houston Rockets on his 30th birthday).

All that being said, Stockton, Kidd and Nash carved career paths that stretched past their 40th birthdays, taking steps to limit their exertion on both ends of the floor. And even Thomas made the All-Star Game at age 30. But while Thomas was vying for an Eastern Conference roster spot in 1992 against the likes of Washington Bullets point guard Michael Adams, Paul faces competition from Curry, Lillard, Parker, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley and others out West. Even the slightest of drop-offs could cost Paul a ninth straight All-Star appearance.

Now, watch Paul submit an MVP campaign on his way to the 2016 NBA title. That’s how slim the margin of error is for backcourt supremacy in the Western Conference.

Previously, on the Weave:

Which Western Conference contender is the most vulnerable?

Which Eastern Conference contender will make it up to No. 2?

Which young player will make the biggest leap to stardom?

Which coach will be on the NBA’s hottest seat in 2015-16?

Which rookie landed in the best spot?

Who will be this season’s most entertaining trainwreck?