Rangers defeat Astros, now half-game behind

On Monday night, the Astros and Rangers commenced a big four-game series in Arlington, and the Rangers took the opener by a score of 5-3 (box score). It was a to-and-fro affair, with the Rangers twice coming back from down a run. The big blow came in the eighth, when Prince Fielder did this …

That was Fielder’s 19th home run of the season but only his second this year in a “late and close” situation. Also note that said homer reduced Houston reliever Will Harris to bunny-hopping out of sight …

Forthcoming: Prince Fielder, conquering hero …

(Image: USATSI)

In any event, Texas closer Shawn Tolleson, who’d never recorded a save prior to this season, made the lead hold up. He’s now 32 for 34 in save opps this season.

All of that leads us to this, which is a screengrab of the current AL West standings …

Yep: The Rangers, who as recently as July 22 were 9.0 games out and in third place, are now even in the loss column with the first-place Astros. Three more to go in this series, and then the two teams will meet again for three games in Houston starting on Sept. 25.

As for that AL West road ahead, the SportsLine Projection Model coming into Monday’s action gave the the Astros an 80.8 percent chance of winning the division and the Rangers a 17.5 percent chance (the Angels checked in at 1.4 percent). So why the long odds for a Texas team that’s basically running even with Houston?

As you can see above, Houston has a big edge in run differential — and a big edge when you drill down to batted-ball-level data — so they project better than the Rangers moving forward. In large part, that’s why the Astros are still the favorites. Texas, though, has obviously made this the best division race in baseball, and there’s no reason they can’t continue defying expectations for another three weeks or so.

The upside for Houston? Jake Marisnick‘s hair looked great as he made his own judgment call at the plate …

There can be honor in defeat, you see.

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