Power Rankings: (In)accurately predicting the results of the 2015 Chase
Our Power Rankings are far from a scientific formula. In fact, it’s the perfect blend of analytics and bias against your favorite driver. And you think we dislike your favorite driver, so it makes sense, right? Direct all your complaints to us at [email protected] and we’ll try to have some fun.
This week we’re changing up the format for a bit. First, we’re going to have 16 drivers and try to predict how the Chase will look like at the end of the year. Second, we’re going to count from 16 to 1 to have some sort of suspense.
Remember, drivers eliminated before Homestead have the opportunity to finish anywhere from fifth to 16th in the standings. So a driver who finishes sixth could have been eliminated from the Chase after race three. Fifth place is everything.
16. Paul Menard: Welcome to the Chase, Paul. We think you’re going to finish last. Actually, we think someone is going to do what Ryan Newman did and get to Homestead without being at threat to win in the first nine races. Menard could be that guy, but he’s going to have to be a steroided-out version of 2014 Newman. Menard has just four top-10 finishes this year.
15. Clint Bowyer: How fun would it be if a late spin in an elimination race helps Clint Bowyer and he makes it to the next round because of it? We’d laugh. And it’d be sure to incite the black helicopter set. Michael Waltrip Racing has had some races where Bowyer has fought a lemon of a car. If he gets one of those in the first three races, he could be out early. What happens first, Bowyer is eliminated or he announces where he’s driving in 2016?
14. Jamie McMurray: Welcome to the Chase, Jamie. Can you find some more speed? McMurray has seven top-10 finishes and will probably need five or so to have any hope in the Chase. McMurray has been really good at avoiding terrible finishes this year – the bad ones plagued his 2014 – and that’s a good strategy to get in the Chase. But is there going to be more speed for the final 10 races?
13. Ryan Newman: When the apocalypse hits the NASCAR planet, the roaches will be scurrying about the demolition searching for scraps and doing other roach-like things. The bugs will think they are the only things left in the NASCAR earth but will wonder what the rumbling is below them. The dirt underneath their feet will slowly crack. And rise up. What the heck is going on? It’s Newman, the last driver standing, emerging from his bunker via his Caterpillar excavation equipment.
12. Martin Truex Jr.: So what’s the real Truex in 2015? The driver and team that had 14 top-10 finishes in the first 15 races or the one that’s had three top-10 finishes in the last 11 races? As with everything, the answer is probably something in the middle. If you believe that momentum is a concept that exists in racing (and if it does, it may be a bit overrated), then Truex doesn’t really have it right now. If you believe that the 2015 rules package means Truex is a contender, well, you’re pointing to the first part of the season and placing your bets.
11. Jeff Gordon: Yes, the biggest and best storyline for the popularity of the Homestead race is Gordon being a part of the final four. We’re not going to sit here and say that the possibility of Gordon racing for the title in south Florida is impossible, just that it seems unlikely. The No. 24 is going to have to go on a Tony Stewart-type run to make it happen. Can you imagine the frenzy if he did?
10. Carl Edwards: Spoiler alert, we’re not picking all four Joe Gibbs Racing cars to make the final four at Homestead. Given the randomness of the Chase format, such an event seems incredibly unlikely. The odds favor one or more of JGR’s team’s suffering an issue in the first couple rounds that puts the team in a serious points hole. We hate to pick on Edwards, but he’s been the slowest of the four drivers over the entire season.
9. Kurt Busch: This guy has had just as much speed as his teammate, who we’ll get to in a bit. He just hasn’t had the consistency that Kevin Harvick has had. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Busch wins a race or two in the Chase and that would give him a big boost over where we have him slotted right now. We’re also fairly comfortable saying that no matter what happens on-track for Busch in the Chase, his 2015 Chase is probably going to be a little less dramatic than last year’s.
8. Denny Hamlin: If Hamlin is eliminated before the final race we don’t envision him getting out of the car to have ACL surgery. The only real benefit would be if he’s out of the Chase in the first round and has an extra seven weeks to rehab vs. maybe two or three. And we don’t think that’s going to happen either. Mark us down for a prediction that Hamlin is going to win at New Hampshire.
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Remember when there was fretting about Junior’s Chase prospects with a new crew chief? Kinda seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it? Right now the biggest question for the No. 88 seems to be on pit road. Junior should be fast, and if he can make it to Talladega he should be in good shape. While he crashed there last year, his Chase hopes were virtually gone because he hit the wall at Kansas.
6. Brad Keselowski: The Penske cars are the class of the “non-JGR” field right now, so expect both Keselowski and Logano to be contenders to the end. Can both of them get into the final round? Of course, but for team diversity’s sake we took one and basically flipped a coin. Sorry Brad. If it’s any consolation, we know these predictions will likely be wrong anyway.
5. Matt Kenseth: The No. 20 is on a roll. Hopefully Kenseth doesn’t get PTSD flashbacks when he heads to Phoenix if he’s still alive in the Chase at that point. If Kenseth does win the Chase, he’d become only the second driver to have a championship in both the season-long and Chase formats. And hey, maybe he’d inspire yet another set of changes to the way NASCAR decides its champion.
4. Kyle Busch: Here we go. We’ve gotten to the final four. What defines success for Kyle Busch in the Chase? While the it’s clear that a championship is the ultimate goal, does being in contention at the end mean something given Busch’s past Chase failures? Or is it win and that’s basically it? And can you make the argument that Busch’s season is already a success given what happened in February?
3. Joey Logano: One spot higher for Logano this year? If he’s in contention at Homestead we don’t know how many times that last pit stop in 2014 will be going through his head. Probably too many to count. Logano is going to win a championship soon. it could be this year. It could be 2020. But we’re confident that Logano is going to keep putting himself in a position to roll the dice.
2. Jimmie Johnson: Hey, Johnson is sticking with Hendrick for 2016 and 2017. We’re incredibly stunned like you are. And yeah, yeah, yeah the Hendrick cars aren’t the fastest ones on track right now. But are you really going to let that count out Johnson? When you’ve got a guy who has more Chase titles (6) than everyone else combined (4) you really can’t bet against him getting to the final race.
1. Kevin Harvick: But we’re not picking Johnson for his seventh title. We’re going with Harvick, who has been the strongest driver throughout the course of the 2015 season. He’s got 22 top-10 finishes in the first 26 races, which puts him on pace for eight or nine top-10s in the Chase. And of his four not-top 10s, only one has come without an issue (crash at Bristol, cut tire at Michigan, engine at Pocono). That race was at Richmond on Saturday, when Harvick finished 14th.
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
