Taking a look at the next hitters to reach 500 home runs

Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz became the most recent member of the 500 home run club Saturday. He did so despite an unusual path. Ortiz didn’t become a major-league regular until he was 24, and didn’t have his first 20+ home run season until he was 26.

It was only after changing teams that Ortiz became a star. After leaving the Minnesota Twins, Ortiz has hit an amazing 442 of his home runs with the Red Sox. Given his late start, and his age, predicting him to reach 500 home runs just a few seasons ago would have been risky. Ortiz has remained an exceptional hitter despite those obstacles, and was able to accomplish the feat.

[On this week’s StewPod: Jose Altuve joins us to talk about the surprising Astros.]

That point is: it’s pretty tough to predict which players will reach 500 home runs. Most members of the club got an early start to their careers, were excellent power hitters early on, managed to stay healthy over a number of seasons and remained effective even when they should have declined.

The league has been lucky enough to have been graced by some exceptionally talented young players in recent years, but expecting even a small portion of those guys to check all those boxes is foolish.

There’s a reason only 27 players have ever reached the milestone: it’s really freaking difficult to be that good over such a long period of time! That’s not going to stop us from looking ahead, though. Let’s take a look at which active players have a legitimate shot at reaching 500 home runs.

ADRIAN BELTRE
HOME RUNS: 410
AGE: 36
Beltre actually checks a lot of the boxes mentioned above. He got an early start to his career, and has been an effective power hitter over his 18 seasons. He’s mostly stayed healthy, and has even managed to stave off his decline. That said, it’s tough to see him reaching 500 home runs. At age-36, it’s unclear how much longer Beltre will play in the league. While injuries have impacted his slash line this year, he’s seen his power drop the last two seasons. He would need to see a big rebound from his power numbers in order to get to 500 home runs over the next three or four seasons.

VERDICT: Close, but unlikely.

MIGUEL CABRERA
HOME RUNS: 407
AGE: 32
Miggy is on track to be the next hitter to reach the 500 home run milestone. He reached the majors at a young age, and has been dominant since. Cabrera had his first 30+ home run season at age-21, and has consistently been among the best players in the game every year. The only issue here is injuries. Cabrera has dealt with some issues over the past couple seasons, but remains an exceptional hitter when healthy. If he can shake the injury bug, Cabrera seems like a strong bet to join the club.

VERDICT: Possible. Maybe even probable!

MARK TEIXEIRA
HOME RUNS: 394
AGE: 35
Teixeira’s huge bounce back this season put him back within striking range of reaching the milestone. It’s going to be tough, though. Teixeira has dealt with a number of significant injuries over the past few seasons, and it’s hard to project him for many 30 home runs years moving forward. As he showed in 2015, the power is still there, he just needs to stay on the field.

VERDICT: Possible, but not likely.

HONORABLE MENTIONS:
Carlos Beltran (388 home runs, age 38), Aramis Ramirez (385 home runs, age 37) and Ryan Howard (356 home runs, age 35) won’t reach 500 home runs during their careers. After Teixeira, they are the three closest active players to the milestone. We felt they deserved an honorable mention for that.

PRINCE FIELDER
HOME RUNS: 306
AGE: 31
Hey, if David Ortiz can do it, why not Fielder? At the same age, Fielder already has 46 more home runs than Ortiz. It’s possible, though, again, it’s unlikely. Fielder would have to remain healthy moving forward. That seemed easy enough a few years ago, when he was playing in every game, but it’s a much bigger question now after major neck surgery disrupted him in 2014. Since Fielder joined the league, there have been doubts about his ability to play at a high level as he ages due to his body type. Ortiz isn’t exactly the most svelte guy, so there’s some hope for Fielder.

VERDICT: Unlikely, but possible.

After Fielder things start to look bleak. Ryan Braun (255 home runs, age 31), Hanley Ramirez (210 home runs, age 31) and Matt Kemp (203 home runs, age 30) are interesting names, but all would need a lot of luck to get there. Justin Upton (189 home runs, age 27) is a pretty fun player to consider. He checks a lot of the boxes needed to get there, he just needs to keep playing at a high level moving forward.

There are, of course, some younger guys who deserve attention:

GIANCARLO STANTON
HOME RUNS: 181
AGE: 25
Stanton is quite possibly the most prestigious power hitter in the game right now. Health is a bit of an issue, though. Over the last five years, Stanton has played in over 140 games twice. That hasn’t stopped him from putting up gaudy home run numbers. He seems like the best of the young players to reach the marker next, he just needs to stay on the field.

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VERDICT: He’s in a good place, now he just needs to stay healthy

MIKE TROUT
HOME RUNS: 133
AGE: 23
Mike Trout is really awesome. Over his last four seasons, he’s done things we’ve never seen from a player so young. Unlike Stanton, he hasn’t shown any health issues. He’ll need to continue to do that and remain effective as he ages. It’s hard to think Trout will ever struggle in the majors, but it’s really damn hard to hit 500 home runs.

VERDICT: Exceptional start to his career. Now, just continue doing it for 15+ seasons.

BRYCE HARPER
HOME RUNS: 91
AGE: 22
If 2015 is the start of Harper’s peak, watch out! Harper has basically put up Barry Bonds-level numbers, and he’s just 22. We’ve all known about his potential since he was a teenager, so ability is not really a question. Staying healthy could be, though. Harper missed time the last two years due to thumb and knee issues. As he’s shown in 2015, he’s capable of being the best player in the game if he can stay on the field.

VERDICT: Was 2015 the start of an exceptional peak? If so, look out!

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