Offseason Beat: Reviewing the Bruski 150
Rankings are only as good as the analysis of the ranks that follows, and looking back every season at the successes and failures of the Bruski 150 is always fun, or funny, depending where you’re standing.
For my part I’m never going to be thrilled with my own rankings because I’m too busy picking them apart, but I do think this year I was better than the last. I got another top-3 finish in the big boys division of the National Championship of Fantasy Basketball and I generally cashed out in my important leagues. In the previous year I felt I scraped by winning 1-of-2 NFBKC leagues and over the last three years I’m 1-of-3 winning it all in a serious ringers league, including mad men like Eric Wong and others that I’m not even sure want to be named. Every year the B150 is the backbone of my draft strategy and it is the culmination of an extremely unhealthy amount of research.
It’s also a fearless list that I typically release as late in the drafting season as possible as to not tip off the rest of the fantasy public too quickly. There are usually a few high profile misses on my part, as well as a bunch of home runs, but the idea is to take public opinion and throw it out the window in an attempt to get maximum value.
I’ve seen some cursory analysis out there on the Interwebs on whose rankings are doing well, but nothing that has come close to a normalized set of ranks for the rankings. If anybody finds something like that out there I’d love to know about so let me know.
Now … the details. The Bruski 150 attempts to measure the cumulative value of players over the course of the season, which means that measuring injury risk is most definitely a factor just as it is for owners on draft day. They’re also measuring ‘Roto’ value, so your head-to-head builds, punting and playoff leagues take a back seat to true, overall value here. In fact, if you want the primer on all that I have to give you the link to last year’s B150 anyway, and in this day and age of posthumous rank changing I welcome you to take all the screen shots that you can.
You’ll note I order the list in 8-cat and I generally prefer that format, as does the NFBKC. I’ll rant at you guys about 9-cat throughout the year, but I do include ranks, ADP* and B150 ranks for both formats. The Win-Lose-Draw (W/L/D) column, also focusing on 8-cat, is where I give my very subjective ranking of my own picks.
Mostly, I’m measuring whether or not I beat ADP, whether I encouraged you or discouraged you accordingly, and the overall impact of that cat and mouse game. A big-time hit will get multiple Ws and a big-time loss will get multiple Ls. A waiver wire stud like Hassan Whiteside will be labeled ‘WAIVER.’ I may also notate that a player was a grinder, somewhat artificially enhancing his ranking in the case of low-end players. I’ll note that a player was injured or traded so a ranking is almost pointless, and I might give something a win or loss and then also explain that they were hurt or traded.
So feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know what you think. And without further ado, the analysis of the ranks….
*ESPN ADP used for 8-cat and Yahoo! ADP for 9-cat
ROUND ONE
Notes: James Harden played 81 games and rolled over opposing owners, and I had him a slot higher than his ADP but I won’t be crowing over it. The big story was that LeBron James started shooting too much from outside and Kevin Durant’s season was a disaster, so that left Harden to compete with Stephen Curry, Chris Paul and Anthony Davis for top honors. I called Curry a win for the B150 even though he finished in-between my No. 1 ranking and his No. 3 ADP. That’s because the top 5-6 picks are crucial to nail and I’d take that result anytime with my No. 1 pick.
Chris Paul also benefited from the dives that LeBron and KD took, but the story here was that he beat out Anthony Davis, who naturally couldn’t stay on the floor and finished at No. 4 where I had him. One last thing, Harden and Curry smoked the competition in terms of pure value.
Russell Westbrook was an adrenaline rush every night for owners and landed in the No. 5 slot despite playing just 67 games. Yes, some of that was augmented by KD’s absence and the other Thunder injuries, but he also took a serious hit in field goal percentage value because the OKC offensive system was … well … as bland as it ever was. And that was really too bad because any sort of inspiriation in that department would have led to a historic fantasy season. I had him at No. 3 and based on where he finished I’m calling it a win, though I wouldn’t fight anybody if they wanted to call it a loss.
Damian Lillard was a cold-blooded killer and I’m just happy to have had him higher than most. Ditto for John Wall where I barely edged out his ADP. Hindsight is 20/20 but I feel like we should have seen the LeBron thing coming. There was slippage everywhere last season, but with new teammates and another year on the tires it makes sense that he wasn’t getting to the rack more often. Klay Thompson was a big win for me as anytime you can sneak a third round pick into the top-9 that’s going to help change your season. And as great as that is I swung and missed on Kyrie Irving from a projection standpoint, but I’ll take the win over the ADP in a squeaker.
The Gasol brothers roasted me last year, as I was the only one around here that didn’t get on the Pau train after his monster preseason. Tom Thibodeau will leave a mark on a lot of guy’s long-term health in Chicago, and it’s arguable that Pau crapped out in the playoffs because of his unworldly workload, but he was a dominating force and key component of championship squads. Marc toyed with the idea of having a hurt knee, which was really the impetus for my being down on him, but 81 games later he slowly marched into that all-important first round.
ROUND TWO
I was in line with Eric Bledsoe’s ADP and the trade deadline really helped his cause, and he also beat expectations about his health. It’s hard to get down on anybody drafting DeMarcus Cousins, as we reported numerous times on the Cowbell Kingdom podcast that Pete D’Alessandro did a number on that squad and eventually the local media he was feeding followed suit. Paul Millsap gave me another win for the B150 before promptly falling apart in the playoffs. I’m calling Draymond Green a draw even though I came in much higher than his ADP. I knew he would outplay David Lee, but I just didn’t have the balls to predict he’d stuff Lee into a corner never to be seen again.
Gordon Hayward was a huge win for B150ers and so was Jeff Teague. I basically conceded defeat on my Tim Duncan pick in the notes section last season, and he’ll beat all of us again this year because that’s how he rolls. I’m calling LaMarcus Aldridge a draw because he cost owners that drafted him in the early teens a sizeable chunk of value. Playing through all those injuries was a bit of a lucky break as well, considering the gloom and doom reports mid-season. Despite the loss I’m attributing to Kawhi Leonard’s ranking, which has a major silver lining in that he was dominant when not suffering freak hand injuries, I feel like the second round was a good one for me.
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