Matchups: Silva's Week 1 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

Green Bay @ Chicago

Packers-Bears has a 49-point Vegas total — second highest of Sunday’s games — with Green Bay installed as a seven-point favorite. Sitting on a 28-point team total, Packers skill-position players are all sporting bright-green lights in DFS. … From both matchup and projected game-flow standpoints, this one sets up best for Eddie Lacy, who has scored a TD in each of his four career meetings with Chicago. After losing top DL Stephen Paea in free agency and NT Jeremiah Ratliff to a three-game suspension, the Bears’ run-defense personnel is the NFL’s worst entering the season. … While a huge Lacy game might not correlate seamlessly with a big Aaron Rodgers box score, Rodgers is in a similarly plum spot. The Bears will rely on ex-Ravens role player Pernell McPhee to key their edge rush, with declining 33-year-old Jared Allen across from him. Second-year LCB Kyle Fuller has seemingly lost his confidence since Calvin Johnson dismantled him twice (11-146-2, 6-103) in the second half of 2014. The Bears will start 30-year-old journeyman Alan Ball at right corner after releasing Tim Jennings. Chicago’s safeties are SS Antrel Rolle, who turns 33 later this year, and fifth-round rookie FS Adrian Amos. For as long as this game is in doubt, Rodgers should shower the Bears with completions. It can’t hurt that Rodgers has thrown three or more touchdown passes in five of his last seven dates with Chicago, including an absurd 72.7% completion rate, 11.2 YPA, and 10:0 TD-to-INT ratio in last year’s two Bears-Packers games.

Coming off a rookie season (38-446-3) that was somewhat pedestrian but still better than both Jordy Nelson (33-366-2) and Randall Cobb‘s (25-375-1), Davante Adams is a high-ceiling WR2 at Chicago and will be a popular play on DFS sites, where his price is cheap. Adams was an often-frustrating fantasy player as Green Bay’s third receiver last year, but did average 6.2 receptions for 88 yards in the five games where he saw at least seven targets. Now Rodgers’ No. 2 wideout, Adams should see seven-plus targets in the majority of this year’s games. … Cobb is expected to start after suffering a sprained AC shoulder joint in Green Bay’s third preseason game. A not-so-dark horse to lead the NFC in catches this year, Cobb is a high-upside WR1 against Chicago’s barely-there pass defense and may be underowned in DFS due to fears over the injury. … While newly-acquired James Jones‘ exact Week 1 role is unclear, he shouldn’t need long to unseat inconsistent sophomore Jeff Janis and raw third-round rookie Ty Montgomery for the Packers’ third receiver job. Albeit likely in his decline phase at age 31, Jones is going to flirt with fantasy WR3 numbers so long as he secures and maintains the No. 3 gig. Per PFF’s Mike Clay, the 2014 Packers used three-receiver sets on 90% of their passing downs, the highest rate in football. … Richard Rodgers overtook Andrew Quarless as Green Bay’s starting tight end and had a solid preseason, catching five passes for 58 yards and a touchdown on 70 snaps, about the equivalent of one full game. Rodgers is a sneaky low-end TE1 and ultra-cheap DFS play against a Bears defense that last year allowed the most fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends.

The garbage-time narrative will be bandied about on Chicago’s end, but it’s also conceivable the Bears get dominated in time of possession, and that their offense simply won’t be on the field enough to rack up touches, yards, and points versus Green Bay. Chicago’s top-three wideouts — Alshon Jeffery (calf), Eddie Royal (hip), and Marquess Wilson (hamstring) — all missed large chunks of training camp, making a slow start likely for the Bears’ offense. Jay Cutler‘s historical stats against longtime Packers DC Dom Capers are another red flag. Cutler has faced Green Bay 11 times since Capers took over as defensive coordinator, completing 186-of-332 throws (56%) for 2,272 yards (6.84 YPA) with a 13:22 TD-to-INT ratio. Defenses playing at home are typically better bets, but the Packers’ D/ST should be teed up this week. … Even in a bad matchup, Matt Forte is an every-week RB1 because he stays on the field regardless of game flow. The Bears lost last year’s two Packers meetings by a combined 62(!) points, but Forte still totaled 252 yards in those games, handling 20-plus touches in both. While expectations should be limited from a TD-scoring standpoint, Forte is a top-12 running back play in Week 1.

Martellus Bennett was the only Bears pass catcher to escape August free of injury. He caught 11 balls this preseason, including seven in Chicago’s regular season dress rehearsal. “Black Unicorn” is a top-five tight end in Week 1 and an underrated DFS option whom Cutler may lean on heavily. … Royal and Wilson are expected to play, though based on comments they made to the media this week, neither will be 100%. Jeffery returned to practice on a limited basis, but is shaping up as a game-time decision. Be wary of Jeffery if he is listed as questionable on Friday. Per Jake Davidow of Injury Predictor, players listed as questionable for John Fox‘s 2014 Broncos played just 35% of the time. … I’ll put another update below this paragraph before Sunday’s game, but for now I don’t think it would be reasonable to have lofty hopes for Bears pass catchers behind Bennett. They are not healthy, they don’t have great matchups, and their quarterback is likely to struggle. If Jeffery is active, he remains a must-play. Jeffery demonstrated an ability to perform at a high level at less than full health in 2014. Battling a nagging hamstring strain, Jeffery posted 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 13-of-15 fantasy-relevant weeks.

Friday Update: Jeffery participated in practice on a “limited” basis each day this week, and was listed as questionable on Friday’s final injury report. The Chicago Tribune reported Friday evening that “all indications” are Jeffery will give it a go against the Packers. Coach John Fox apparently wants to see how Jeffery responds in Saturday’s pre-game walkthrough before making a final decision. Again, if Jeffery is announced as active on Sunday morning, I think he’s a must-start.

Score Prediction: Packers 31, Bears 20

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Kansas City @ Houston

Chiefs-Texans has a Vegas total of 40.5 points, second lowest of Week 1 behind only Browns-Jets. This is a game to avoid in DFS and shy away from in season-long lineups. … The obvious exception on Houston’s side is DeAndre Hopkins, who projects as a volume hog as the Texans’ new No. 1 wideout. Hopkins is succeeding Andre Johnson, who last year ranked fifth in the NFL in targets. Hopkins finished 2014 as fantasy’s No. 14 overall wideout despite shaky quarterback play and a No. 21 ranking among wide receivers in targets. While Brian Hoyer‘s erratic accuracy is a concern for Hopkins’ efficiency, he does stand to benefit from Kansas City’s loss of top CB Sean Smith to a three-game suspension. It’s perhaps worth noting that Hopkins scored five of his six touchdowns in home games last year. With Arian Foster (groin) likely out until October, Hopkins figures to be Houston’s primary means of moving the chains. Hopkins’ current target competition consists of Cecil Shorts, Nate Washington, Garrett Graham, and C.J. Fiedorowicz. … In Bill O’Brien‘s first year as head coach, the Texans played run-committed, ball-control offense, leading the NFL in rushing attempts and ranking 30th in pass attempts. This approach was taken in an effort to “hide” their quarterback, which remains a trouble spot on Houston’s roster. O’Brien would very likely love to leave this game with Hoyer only attempting in the range of 18-22 passes. Even in two-QB leagues, this strategy isn’t a recipe for box-score success.

Shorts won the Texans’ second receiver job and will enter the slot in three-wide packages. 27-year-old Shorts is an above-average talent with position versatility and a top-25 fantasy finish on his career resume. If Shorts’ health cooperates, I think he’s a sleeper for 70 receptions this season. … 32-year-old Washington may log heavy snaps, but offers no real fantasy appeal as a rotational wideout on a run-first team. … Avoid TEs Fiedorowicz and Graham, who combined for 35 targets all of last year. 2014 third-round pick Fiedorowicz did start each of Houston’s final two preseason games and is worth monitoring to see if his role expands. … A big (6’2/223), methodical-moving plodder with 4.63 speed, Alfred Blue will handle lead-back duties until Foster returns. Blue turned in two slightly-memorable fantasy efforts as a rookie last season, posting a 13-78 rushing line in a Week 3 spot start at the Giants, and 36-156 in Week 11 at the Browns. Blue finished 2014 with a 3.12 YPC average behind one of the league’s top offensive lines, however, and was removed on passing downs for Jonathan Grimes. I suspect Blue may be a popular DFS play based on his somewhat recognizable name and role, and his cheap price. I think Blue could be a trap, particularly if the Texans involve Grimes and/or versatile Chris Polk more than expected. The Chiefs’ defense does present a favorable matchup with 346-pound NT Dontari Poe coming off back surgery and key run-defense cogs ILB Derrick Johnson and DE Mike DeVito returning from Achilles’ tears. View Blue as a low-end RB2 in season-long leagues. I think he’s a fade in daily, although I could end up wrong if game flow allows Blue to pile up carries in a matchup with a Chiefs defense that last season ranked bottom five versus the run.

As Ross Tucker and I discussed on this week’s Fantasy Feast Podcast, the Chiefs made a significant offensive line switch following the preseason, installing Donald Stephenson on Alex Smith‘s blind side and flipping failed LT Eric Fisher to right tackle. It’s not a stretch to say Fisher has been one of the NFL’s worst linemen the past two seasons. In Week 1, Fisher will more-often-than-not line up across from offensive-wrecking-machine LE J.J. Watt, which could theoretically require the Chiefs to give Fisher constant “help” blocks. Travis Kelce is one of the best blocking tight ends in the league. While Kelce remains a top-five tight end play in season-long leagues, I’m probably going to avoid him in DFS. It does not help that the 2014 Texans permitted the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends. … If Kelce indeed spends much of this game on the line blocking, the Chiefs’ passing-game beneficiary should be Jeremy Maclin, who is coming off a promising preseason. Many have clung to last year’s zero-touchdown-passes-to-wide-receivers stat as a decisive data point when shying away from Maclin, but the Chiefs look poised to manufacture touches for their new $55 million wideout. In August, Maclin caught 11 balls for 99 yards and two touchdowns. He gained eight yards on an end-around, worked at Z, X, and slot receiver, and scored one of his TDs lined up next to Smith at running back in the shotgun. Maclin begins the year as a WR2.

Behind Maclin, 32-year-old possession target Jason Avant, promising sophomore Albert Wilson, and third-round rookie Chris Conley are vying for playing time, with RB/WR De’Anthony Thomas also mixing in. All four receiving options bring something different to the table. They are role players and could work to cancel each other out as fantasy commodities. … This game’s low-scoring projection works against Smith as a two-quarterback-league start. The Chiefs’ Vegas team total is under 20 points. Expect a balanced approach on offense against the Texans, with a bevy of short passes designed to mitigate Watt’s impact on the game and release the football quickly. … Jamaal Charles‘ Week 1 draw got a slight boost when Texans ILB Mike Mohamed suffered a multi-week calf injury late in camp. Mohamed was Houston’s highest-graded inside linebacker at PFF last year. This is still a middling matchup for Charles, taking on a Texans team that last season ranked No. 16 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA, and added NT Vince Wilfork in the spring. Charles is an obvious RB1 start, but I’m off him in DFS this week.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 21, Texans 17

Cleveland @ NY Jets

The 39.5-point Vegas total on Browns-Jets is Week 1’s lowest. This is a game to fade nearly across the board in fantasy lineup decisions, particularly on Cleveland’s side. … Josh McCown was abysmal this preseason, seemingly seeing ghosts before all-too-frequently running out of the pocket. At this stage of his career, 36-year-old McCown looks scared of his own shadow. On the road, McCown should be a turnover-committing, sack-absorbing machine squaring off with a defense run by new Jets coach Todd Bowles, whose 2014 Cardinals ranked third in the NFL in blitz percentage and seventh in interceptions, and who is dubbing Gang Green an “offensive defensive team.” The Jets are my favorite D/ST play of Week 1. In New York, the presence of ultra-talented man-cover corners Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie with trusty Buster Skrine in the slot will allow Bowles to stay extremely aggressive. … The Browns’ likely three-receiver set will have Brian Hartline and Taylor Gabriel aligned outside with Andrew Hawkins in the slot and perhaps Dwayne Bowe entering in four-wide packages. In 2014, Hartline, Bowe, Hawkins, and Gabriel combined to score five TDs on 342 targets. That’s a 1.5% TD rate. For perspective, notorious non-touchdown scorer Harry Douglas has a better career TD rate at 1.9%. Dez Bryant‘s career TD rate is 9.2%. Especially with Bowe listed as a third-team wideout on Cleveland’s post-camp depth chart, you can safely ignore Browns receivers in Week 1.

The Browns haven’t won a season opener since 2004, and I wouldn’t bet on that changing this year. A theoretical run-first team, Cleveland “settled” on Isaiah Crowell as its Week 1 tailback starter by default, as Duke Johnson (hamstring, concussion) missed extensive training camp time and Terrance West was traded after continuing to frustrate coaches. On Sunday, Crowell will do battle with a Jets defense that finished 2014 ranked top five against the run and is now overseen by Bowles, whose Arizona defenses were similarly stout. Three-point underdogs on the road, the Browns’ Opening Day team total is barely over 18 points. Crowell is a low-RB2/flex option simply because he should get a bunch of run, but his matchup is brutal and his team is unlikely to spend much of this game in scoring position. … In season-long leagues, hold on tight to Johnson, for whom the Browns reportedly have “big plans” once his health rounds into shape. Johnson is easily Cleveland’s most versatile back and there were no signs this preseason of Crowell taking a second-year leap. Assuming he can shake the injury bug for an extended stretch, I wouldn’t bet against Duke becoming the Browns’ starting running back by October.

Last year’s Browns ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and 31st in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA metric. Cleveland’s defensive personnel suggests it should be stronger than that up front, but coach Mike Pettine‘s units have a history of soft run defense. As the coordinator of a loaded Bills defense in 2013, Buffalo ranked 28th against the run. Pettine’s resume suggests leaky run defense may be a function of his scheme. Whatever the case, this is a great matchup for Jets workhorse Chris Ivory, who was more involved than ever in the passing game under first-year OC Chan Gailey this preseason, and who faces very little threat for touches with only Bilal Powell and Zac Stacy behind him on the depth chart. In DFS this week, I’m smitten with an Ivory-Jets defense correlation play. … Pettine’s pass defenses have been much stronger over the years. His 2013 Bills ranked No. 4 versus the pass and last year’s Browns came in No. 8 while ranking second in interceptions (21). Long pick prone in his own right, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a tough sell as a two-quarterback-league starter in Week 1. In Gailey’s spread-style offense with the best weapons of his career, I do think there will be weeks where Fitzpatrick is usable in re-draft fantasy and DFS. This isn’t one of them.

Brandon Marshall also gets a rough Week 1 draw, likely facing shadow coverage from Browns top CB Joe Haden. Marshall did post a 6-95-1 receiving line in a 2013 clash with Haden, but needed 13 targets to do it, and that was when Marshall was 29 years old. He’s now 31. Marshall projects as a volume machine this season, but he’s more of a WR2/3 play in the opening game. I expect Marshall to be a borderline WR1 in weeks ahead. … Eric Decker gets an easier matchup versus Browns No. 2 CB Tramon Williams, who is 32 1/2 years old and was charged by PFF with eight touchdown passes allowed last season, third most in the league. Still, Marshall’s target-gobbling presence and the Jets’ likely smashmouth approach to facing Cleveland pose major threats to Decker’s usage. He’s on the WR3/4 fringe. … The Jets’ third receiver to open the year will be Quincy Enunwa, a 6-foot-2, 225-pound 2014 sixth-round pick out of Nebraska. Enunwa caught 12 touchdown passes as a college senior and appears poised for a significant role in Gailey’s four- and sometimes five-wide spread attack. Enunwa should be rostered in all Dynasty leagues and could become a re-draft sleeper if something happens to Marshall or Decker. … With Jace Amaro on I.R., the Jets’ tight ends will be Jeff Cumberland and blocker Kellen Davis. A sixth-year pro who’s never caught more than 30 passes in an NFL season, Cumberland earned Pro Football Focus’ No. 67 grade out of 67 qualifying tight ends last season. That’s dead last.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Browns 13

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