Week 2 college football odds: The 10 best over and under picks – CBSSports.com
Each week, I’m going to offer up the best overs and unders available on the college football slate. These selections are based off trends, with some help from SportsLine’s projections and, most importantly, my intuition.
Week 1 was a mixed bag for my over/under picks as I went 5-5 (3-2 unders, 2-3 overs). Not a good start, but not a bad start for the first week of the season with little information available on each team.
For Week 2, I’m abandoning the five and five model from last week and sticking with my bread and butter which is unders. I have seven under plays and three overs for your appraisal this week.
UCF at Stanford UNDER 45.5: This is my LOCK OF THE WEEK. UCF could only muster 14 points against FIU in the opener and Stanford’s offense is as conservative as any in the country. Stanford should win this one, but I expect a pretty ugly, low-scoring game (20-6 Stanford). You’re going to Stanford in this column probably every week as they went 9-3 on unders in 2014 and are 1-0 this season.
This opened at 43.5 and is up to 45.5, but I have a feeling that like Penn State and Temple last week, this one is going to get late action from sharps to bring it back down closer to that opening number. You could hold off until Thursday to grab this as it might creep up to 46, but if you wait until late Friday or early Saturday don’t be surprised to see it come back down.
Wake Forest at Syracuse UNDER 43.5: Unlike UCF-Stanford, this total is already down a half point so hustle to get this one in. Syracuse is going to a backup quarterback and Wake Forest is, well, Wake. I know they had an offensive EXPLOSION against Elon averaging 4.83 yards per carry, but don’t forget that last year in the ACC they averaged under 1.25 yards per carry.
Wake’s defense is pretty legit so I expect them to frustrate an inexperienced quarterback and I’m not sure either team can hit 20 in this one. This one probably finishes in the 17-13 range, and we just have to hope this doesn’t hit a couple overtimes. Wake is also going to be a staple of this column as they went 8-4 on unders in 2014.
Temple at Cincinnati UNDER 55: This actually could be a really interesting game to watch in a week full of really mediocre matchups. Temple’s defense is pretty nasty and is coming off a 10 sack performance against Penn State — albeit against an awful offensive line.
We haven’t seen Cincy this year and they can score a little bit, but the Bearcats went 7-6 in 2014 on unders and are opening their season this week against a good defense. This line has jumped from 51.5 open so hold off to see if this one doesn’t sneak up on 60 by Friday.
Rice at Texas UNDER 50.5: Texas’ offense is a dumpster fire right now and they just changed offensive coordinators after one week. They don’t have a functional quarterback so teams can just load up the box and shut everything down for the Longhorns.
Texas’ defense struggled early against Notre Dame, but they have a legit star in the middle with freshman linebacker Malik Jefferson. Rice is going to run the ball and run it a lot. 401 rushing yards last week for the Owls, but I think Texas’ front 7 will contain the big play — Notre Dame had 212 yards rushing, but it took 52 carries to get there.
Texas, like Wake and Stanford, are a very friendly under team. 1-0 this season after a 9-4 under season in 2014.
North Texas at SMU UNDER 61.5: Another line that’s rapidly rising and if you hold out you might just clear another key number (63). This opened at 56.5 and has jumped five points as of writing on Wednesday evening.
I know everyone’s all excited about SMU’s performance against Baylor, but putting aside that first play bomb, the Mustangs only racked up 14 points on the Bears. They are a running team that takes time off the clock.
North Texas’ offense put up 30 points three times in 2014 — SMU, Nicholls State and FAU. The Mean Green is not Baylor and I think this one sticks on the under, especially as that number continues to rise.
Utah State at Utah UNDER 45: This line is dropping so get it early before it takes a big dive on gameday — Friday. Utah State scored 12 — TWELVE — on FCS Southern Utah and the Aggies only threw for 110 yards. Utah’s front seven is nasty and you don’t run on them — ask Michigan’s 2.62 yards per carry average last week.
Utah’s not going to let the Aggies run the ball at all and the Utes are very happy to sit on the ball for six-plus minute drives as they slowly run over you with Devontae Booker. Not sure the Aggies reach double digits in this one, so give me the under.
Houston at Louisville UNDER 55: Louisville gave up 31 points to Auburn, but the defense played very well against one of the nation’s top offenses — take out the 82 yard fumble return and botched trick play to open the game that gave Auburn a 27 yard field. The Cardinals held one of the top rushing offenses in the nation to just 4.63 yards per carry and 5.27 yards per play overall.
Houston’s going to be a good offense under Tom Herman’s guidance, but I think they will struggle on the road against that Louisville defense. The Cardinals make the transition full-time to freshman Lamar Jackson and I expect he’ll continue to be a bit inconsistent, but make up for it with a few big plays.
A lot of running from Louisville in this one and I see them winning 31-17, but the under hits fairly comfortably.
Miami at Florida Atlantic OVER 55: Finally, we’ll give out an over. FAU’s offense is pretty solid, but they can’t exactly stop anyone on defense. Miami’s defense is good, but not great, but I think Brad Kaaya has a big game against the Owls and this one covers the over fairly comfortably.
Remember, FAU just gave up 47 to Tulsa — 41 in regulation — so I don’t think scoring’s going to be a big issue for the Canes. FAU gets a few touchdowns themselves in this one and keeps it interesting for a bit in the Schnellenberger Bowl, but Miami pulls away in a bit of a shootout. 38-24, Canes.
Marshall at Ohio OVER 60: Marshall gave up 31 to Purdue. Ohio gave up 28 to Idaho. Neither of those teams is what we’d call an offensive powerhouse, so yeah, I expect some points to be scored here.
Both teams went over 40 points in wins in Week 1 and this one should be a track meet with not a lot of resistance from the defenses. Ohio wasn’t a good over team last year (3-9), but Week 1 has me feeling like that trend is changing. Light up that scoreboard in a good old-fashioned MAC-CUSA battle.
UTEP at Texas Tech OVER 65.5: Texas Tech is a fantastic over team. That defense is as porous as swiss cheese — they gave up 45 to Sam Houston State! — but the offense is pretty nasty. They have one of the nation’s best offensive lines and Kliff Kingsbury’s group plays with tempo and loves to hit the big play.
UTEP is coming off a loss to Arkansas where they were held to 13 points — which I think is what’s holding this number at just 65.5 — but against the Red Raiders they should be able to up that number fairly significantly. I expect another shootout down in Lubbock and I also expect I’ll be suggesting a fair number of Texas Tech overs this season.
Stanford is going to be under gold all season long. (USATSI)
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