Goal Line Stand: Week 1 Rankings
For the first five years of Sam Bradford’s career, the theme was always what he didn’t have. Weapons. Coaching. An offensive line. Health.
Now the story is what he has: Chip Kelly. Philadelphia’s visored dissident made competent quarterbacks out of Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez, players with half Bradford’s throwing ability. But if Foles and Sanchez were replacement parts for an otherwise roaring engine, Bradford is a complete reclamation project. The No. 1 overall pick of the 2010 draft hasn’t thrown a regular season pass since October 20, 2013. His last 16-game season was in 2012. And though Bradford’s Rams struggles never lacked an alibi, they were not all his environment’s fault.
A 58.6 percent passer over 1,760 career throws, Bradford can be skittish in the pocket and wildly inconsistent on a throw-to-throw basis. He’s typically struggled in the red zone, and isn’t necessarily better when he has more time to think. He let a bad situation bring out the worst in him in St. Louis.
Now it’s Kelly’s turn to bring out the best. Kelly’s breakneck system resembles the record-breaking one Bradford helmed at Oklahoma far more than anything the ex-Sooner was asked to run in St. Louis. Bradford is at his best when he’s in rhythm, getting to react instead of waiting for something to develop. That’s the game Kelly wants to play, imposing his will and racking up plays. He is not concerned with time of possession. When it comes to play design, the simpler, the better.
The early results have been promising. Playing with poise, precision and purpose, Bradford completed 13-of-15 preseason passes for 156 yards and three touchdowns. He brought the fight like it was a Saturday night in Ames, Iowa. The trick, of course, will be doing it in the regular season, not just a preseason utopia.
I’m betting he will. Liberated from the station-to-station myopia of Jeff Fisher’s offense, Bradford is finally getting the chance to play the kind of football that made him the No. 1 overall pick. Maybe he’ll get hurt, or maybe he’ll go down in the flames of the same old mistakes. I think he’s in the right place at the right time, one that will make him one of the season’s most compelling stories, and a bonafide QB1.
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Week 1 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: Jordy Nelson’s season-ending ACL tear cost Aaron Rodgers the best receiver trio of his life, but he’ll be allowed to ease into 2015 against the Bears. Rodgers tossed 38 touchdowns last season. 10 of them came against Chicago. That’s 26.3 percent. The Bears have vastly improved their defensive coaching staff, but not their defense. Rodgers isn’t going to throw for five touchdowns, but he’s Week 1’s surest bet at quarterback. … Forget Tom Brady’s “vengeance” narrative. It’s meaningless tripe. Brady always plays with the fury of 1,000 Mad Maxes. He’s not going to be any angrier on Thursday evening. He will, however, be facing arguably the worst cornerback corps in the league, and a pass rush that struggles to generate heat. Brady’s lack of weapons beyond Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman could quickly become a storyline, but it won’t be an issue against the former Steel Curtain. … As for the man Brady will be facing, Ben Roethlisberger will be missing two of his three top weapons, but piloting a pass-happy attack in a game that has shootout appeal. The Pats boasted one of the league’s top pass defenses in 2014, but are undergoing yet another makeover, and running out the questionable duo of Malcolm Butler and Tarell Brown at cornerback. My guess is that Ben’s week will be better from a fantasy than “real life” perspective.
Andrew Luck will be ranked No. 1 more weeks than not, but faces what could be his stiffest test of the season in Indianapolis’ journey to Buffalo. Defensive mastermind/elite game planner Rex Ryan has one of the fiercest lines in the country going up against one of the shakiest groups of blockers. I’m confident Luck will repeat last year’s QB1 finish, but this figures to be one of his quieter games. … Chip Kelly’s defense makes plays, but it also bleeds yards. The Falcons are going to have an almost impossible time stopping Kelly’s offense on the Georgia Dome’s fast track, but Matt Ryan should accumulate plenty of his own stats. … You can question the wisdom of the Cowboys putting the weight of the world back on Tony Romo’s shoulders, but not this week. Operating behind the league’s best offensive line against arguably its worst pass rush, Romo should have a field day, deferring questions about Dallas’ new look run game for at least another seven days.
An aging Peyton Manning’s adjustment to a more run-heavy offense is one of the most intriguing storylines of the season. The Ravens have been a nemesis, but travel to Denver with one of the more questionable defenses they’ve sported under John Harbaugh. Manning won’t have a leisurely afternoon, but it should be a productive one. … Jeff Fisher’s defense will try to tee off on Russell Wilson in the Edward Jones Dome, but it’s worth remembering that Wilson’s best fantasy performance of 2014 (40.3 points) came in St. Louis. Not that it has any real bearing on this week’s matchup, but the point is the Rams are not a matchup that Wilson fears. It helps that he has arguably the best supporting cast of his career. … Last year’s QB10, Ryan Tannehill enters 2015 with an improved supporting cast, and a firmer grasp of Bill Lazor’s Eagles-lite offense. Unless Tannehill finally develops a deep ball, major improvement on last year’s numbers is unlikely, but the Redskins are not an imposing matchup for opening day.
This is an admittedly cautious ranking for Drew Brees, but the Saints swear they’re going to be more balanced on offense, while Arizona has been a tough place to play for opposing quarterbacks during the Bruce Arians era. Brees’ weapons are very, very questionable. Brees is one of the defining players of his generation, but there’s a chance the 8-12 range is the new normal for him in weekly rankings. … Carson Palmer has one of the league’s best receiver corps, but humpty dumpty needs to prove he can put himself back together again before too much trust is placed in him as a QB1. … This could be the lowest Philip Rivers is ranked all season. There are just a lot of unknowns in San Diego. Rivers is healthy after battling debilitating injuries down the stretch in 2014, but is another year older. The Bolts are remaking their running game, while Rivers’ targets totem pole is unsettled. A slow start wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world. … Matthew Stafford has room to grow, as well, but last year’s QB15 is no longer the most projectable quarterback in the room.
Teddy Bridgewater has nowhere to go but up. … Will Cam Newton run enough to offset his near total lack of weapons? The answer could be “yes,” but the next question then becomes his health. … Alex Smith has an improved supporting cast, but going on the road to face J.J. Watt is not a fun way to start the season. … Marcus Mariota vs. Jameis Winston is the most fascinating matchup of Week 1, but it’s too early to trust either as more than a dice-roll QB2. Mariota was the more polished player in the preseason, and is a true dual-threat. Winston is more aggressive with a better supporting cast, but figures to be wildly inconsistent. Both players are true, blue QB1 prospects in an era of declining quarterback play, but don’t fire them up in re-draft leagues just yet. … Tyrod Taylor figures to run more than any other QB this week. We just have no idea if he’ll be effective doing so. It’s been a long time since a team intentionally started someone as unproven as Taylor in Week 1.
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