NFL Preview Week: Top QB draft prospects and which teams they fit
Quarterbacks always are in high demand in the NFL, as April’s draft showed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans selecting their passers of the future with Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota with the first two picks, respectively.
That demand won’t change much in 2016, although the available talent will have something to say about where quarterbacks will stack in the draft. At first blush, it might not be a banner year for rookie quarterback talent, but depending on how the college football season shakes out, there could be as many as four or five first-round picks at the position — or perhaps as few as one or two.
Still, there will be several teams eager to land talented passers and move on from their failed experiments at the position. An average of 12.2 quarterbacks have been selected per year over the past 15 drafts, with a low-water mark of seven last year (only five after Winston and Mariota) and a peak of 17 in 2004, the Eli Manning-Philip Rivers-Ben Roethlisberger year.
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Here are the teams — we’ll round up from 12.2 and give you 13 — we think will be most likely to draft quarterbacks in 2016 and which players might be good fits as things stand now.
Cleveland Browns — We don’t know if Johnny Manziel will ever pan out, but we do know that Josh McCown is little more than a stopgap — and just how long that gap stops is even in serious doubt. But, as always, there are so many variables with the Browns. Is Mike Pettine still the coach? Is Ray Farmer and his shaky draft track record still making the picks? Assuming there’s patience with the current regime in Cleveland (suppressing laughter), we think there’s a solid chance that the team would consider a QB high up in the draft if Manziel doesn’t show anything positive this season, and that chance might be even higher with yet another staff in place.
Who might fit?
All the top names — Michigan State’s Connor Cook, Cal’s Jared Goff and Ohio State’s Cleveland-born Cardale Jones — apply, but it’s worth noting that the #FailForCardale campaign is very much off and running locally and is likely to break the internet any day now.
Houston Texans — The team reluctantly selected Brian Hoyer as its Week 1 starter over Ryan Mallett as its starter, which should tell you everything you need to know about where Bill O’Brien stands at the position. He’d love an upgrade, and it’s a good bet that quarterback comes from the college ranks, where O’Brien can handpick his guy, steep him in the complex and demanding offensive system and maybe have something after a year or two. Assuming 2014 fifth-round pick Tom Savage is not some Rich Gannon-like, slow-developing talent, it’s a good bet the Texans take a QB at some point next spring.
Who might fit?
Yes, there will be the obvious connections between O’Brien and Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg given their time together in Happy Valley (and the fact that, to date, O’Brien by far has gotten the best out of him). Beyond that, we think Cook might be a good fit, as could North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz, who has intriguing measurables and good pocket presence.
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Buffalo Bills — Rex Ryan has yet to find his guy, unless we think that Tyrod Taylor might finally end that streak (and some people believe Taylor fills the bill there). Even if Taylor has some success in his first crack at starting, there’s still no guarantee he’ll be viewed by all parties in Buffalo as the future, and there remains doubt and skepticism in EJ Manuel despite some perceived growth there. Matt Cassel is merely a placeholder, so the assumption is that the Bills — especially now that they have a nearly full till of draft picks — could select one at some point.
Who might fit?
Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman has done excellent work in the past using athletic quarterbacks and maximizing their talents, as it appears he has done so far with Taylor. So we’ll project the intriguing Jacoby Brissett, who has been excellent at making off-script plays and seems to have the kind of moxie and athleticism to tempt NFL scouts.
New York Jets — Has Geno Smith exhausted his chances in New York? Does Bryce Petty have enough upside? These are the first questions we must answer. We are nearly certain that Todd Bowles is on solid footing unless he has a Cam Cameron-like debut as head coach. Bowles and new GM Mike Maccagnan might not be afraid to double dip after the Petty pick if the fourth-rounder doesn’t show terrific potential as a rookie.
Who might fit?
Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, assuming he returns, has shown more willingness than other coaches to employ spread elements in his offense if it fits his personnel. So we’d feel safe saying that quarterbacks such as Goff, Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs and TCU’s Trevone Boykin have skills that might interest the Jets.
St. Louis Rams — The Rams have an extra two picks from the Philadelphia Eagles in 2016 coming via the trade to acquire Nick Foles, and if Foles plays poorly it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Rams dip into the QB talent pool. Yes, even with the Rams using a third-round pick on Sean Mannion that doesn’t appear early on to be a great selection. With the team possibly moving to Los Angeles, it might be a good idea if they do to stir up some excitement with a young quarterback possibility. The status of Jeff Fisher as head coach also could have an effect on whether they draft one or not.
Who might fit?
Kessler has ties to L.A. and fits the mold of the “safe” selection the Rams seem bent on making at the position. Stanford’s Kevin Hogan is a mature but divisive prospect who has failed to grow in college commensurately, which makes him similar to Mannion in that regard somewhat.
San Francisco 49ers — Colin Kaepernick might be in a make-or-break season, and this franchise could be in full rebuild mode if this offseason is any indication. Even though Kaepernick is only turning 28 in November and has been given a long-term contract extension, it’s not the type of iron-clad deal that shackles the team to him if it wants to get out at some point. Why wouldn’t they consider drafting a QB this spring? Everything else is up in the air at this point.
Who might fit?
Given Kaepernick’s unique skill set, it’s hard to find a close match in the 2016 crop. If he’s around, it might make sense to draft someone like Jones (although it would cost them) or Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott (who would go far lower in the draft). If Kaepernick is cut loose or traded, or if the coaching staff is hacked up, who knows?
Cincinnati Bengals — You might have read on the internet that Andy Dalton stinks. It’s not a complete truth (he’s had some big games, and even a few big months, seriously), but the guy just can’t seem to put it all together for a full season and, most importantly, a postseason. Like with the 49ers and Kaepernick, Dalton’s contract is in no way the boat anchor the surface numbers would make it appear. The Bengals, too, have ways of getting out of it while chalking it up to collateral damage. Can A.J. McCarron play? No clue; the Bengals likely don’t even know yet. But Dalton doesn’t have a lot longer to not prove himself before a young gun is brought in.
Who might fit?
Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has worked with pocket passers such as Dalton, Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer but at one point seemed enamored with the run-pass capabilities of Terrelle Pryor. So while we made the Jones-Browns connection earlier, why not another geographical pairing: Cincinnati’s (by way of Notre Dame) Gunner Kiel, who has been putting up some monster numbers a few miles down the road and who at one point featured some 1980s-era Boomer Esiason-esque hair. Plus, you know, the kid can play some football and brings a different kind of swagger and energy to the position than Dalton does.
Washington Redskins — Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins came into the NFL together in the same draft class in 2012 and could exit Washington D.C. around the same time if Cousins doesn’t improve his consistency and his 2-7 starting record. A full reboot at quarterback isn’t out of the question, and at this point we have no idea how management views head coach Jay Gruden in Year 2 of a five-year fully guaranteed deal. Per usual, it’s a mess with little hope for the future. (Did that pick up your sprits at all by chance?)
Who might fit?
Assuming Gruden is still there — a big if right now — he’ll want an accurate, quick-thinking caretaker for the position. Cal’s Goff and, a bit further down the line, USC’s Cody Kessler might fit the bill. Redskins fans will take anyone whose knees are not shot and who might be mentally tough enough to last more than two seasons in town, with or without earning a death mark first.
Kansas City Chiefs — Alex Smith has been good for the team, and he might be on the verge of his best season with the Chiefs to date. But there’s a decision to be made on his contract at year’s end and Andy Reid drafted six quarterbacks in his 14 years in Philadelphia but only one (2014 fifth-rounder Aaron Murray) in three years with the Chiefs. Murray, Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray (on IR this season but recently signed to a two-year extension) might only have backup ceilings, so Reid could dip into the 2016 class at any point.
Who might fit?
Frankly, we’d love it if BYU alum Reid used a seventh-round pick on the Cougars’ Taysom Hill, who has suffered three season-ending injuries in a four-year span and will turn 26 next year, although we admit that’s not too likely. Reid doesn’t seem to mind shorter quarterbacks, so perhaps Florida State’s Everett Golson — with a spread background and experience this year in Jimbo Fisher’s pro system — would make some sense.
Arizona Cardinals — We won’t put it past Bruce Arians to dip back into the QB pool after his Logan Thomas pick failed to work out. What he seeks: size, pocket presence, desciveness and arm strength and downfield touch to stretch the field vertically. Carson Palmer turns 36 in December, is coming off his second torn ACL and will need to show something this season even though he earned a contract extension and was 6-0 as a starter last year.
Who might fit?
Cook has some Palmer-like qualities, Jones certainly fits from a skill-set standpoint and maybe Hackenberg could use a QB whisperer such as Arians to get him straightened out. But we also could see Brissett and Kiel as fits, too.
Chicago Bears — What, you’re not feeling Jay Cutler putting it all together this season? It’s a worn-out gag for Bears fans, who feel helpless with Cutler and helpless without him. There’s no future starter on the roster, and Cutler is dead weight. The Bears’ best bet is to draft a quarterback — preferably high — next spring and implore him to start the hostile takeover process as quickly as the youngster is able and ready. Offensive coordinator Adam Gase has worked with Tim Tebow and Peyton Manning, among others, and appears gifted enough to mold his offense around the traits of a talented quarterback instead of trying to shoehorn a player into a specific system.
Who might fit?
Gase is a Michigan State guy, so you have to think he’s at least got one eye on Cook this season. Goff would make a lot of sense, too, with some skills that are reminiscent of both Teddy Bridgewater and a young Aaron Rodgers (before Mike McCarthy made him fully into what he is today). A few hours down the road is a great sleeper in Wes Lunt, who could surprise some people this season in a pro system.
Philadelphia Eagles — What, you’re betting against Chip Kelly drafting a quarterback? Kelly never quite seems to love what he has at the position, and he missed out on Mariota this past spring, so until Kelly (Ahab?) gets his white whale he might continue looking, even if Sam Bradford has a breakout season and/or signs a contract extension. It’s clear Mark Sanchez is replaceable as a backup, and there’s no legitimate developmental option in the bullpen.
Who might fit?
Jones comes from a read-option offense, even though that’s not exactly his strength; still, there are crossovers from the Urban Meyer offense to the Kelly scheme. Boykin certainly has some Kelly-friendly ability, as do Dobbs and Prescott, although to a lesser degree. Goff certainly would be fun to watch operating Kelly’s scheme, and he has the arm endurance to handle a 200-throw practice with ease.
Dallas Cowboys — It still boggles the mind that Jerry Jones has drafted a mere three quarterbacks since Troy Aikman went No. 1 overall in 1989: Stephen McGee (2009), Quincy Carter (2001) and Bill Musgrave (1991). Jones is due for another one. Tony Romo is in the peak of his career at age 35, but for how long? Brandon Weeden doesn’t excite as a backup, and the third QB is … Jameill Showers, currently residing on the practice squad. New blood is needed.
Who might fit?
We could see Jones loving Kiel’s gunslinger mentality, but we also could see him offering a soft landing for Hackenberg if he were to tumble. In the middle part of the draft, a bigger-bodied prospect such as Indiana’s Nate Sudfeld or UMass’ Blake Frohnapfel might work. For a lower-round option, maybe Arkansas’ Brandon Allen could be in play.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
