NFL Picks Week 1: Cowboys, Colts, Patriots and Dolphins are winners – NOLA.com
Survivor Pools – also known as Knockout and/or Suicide Pools – continue to gain in popularity.
The way to play is simple: Put up the fee to participate (which generally ranges from $20 to $100 or more), and pick one NFL team to win each week. Get the pick right, and move on to Week 2. Lose, and you’re out.
The caveat, however, is each team can only be picked once. That means if you pick the Saints to defeat Arizona in Week 1 and you guess correctly, well, kudos to you on an unwise selection. But as it relates to the survivor pool, you cannot pick the Saints again the rest of the season (unless you remain alive into the playoffs, when generally the pool resets for remaining participants).
The last participant standing is the winner and takes home the loot.
We’re going to continue a weekly feature we started last season, in which I pick every NFL game. And for a little lagniappe (which means “something extra” if you’re not from Who Dat town) I’ll also let you know who I think will cover in case you’re into that sort of thing. Last season, I was 66 percent straight up and 54 percent against the spread.
Also, we would love for you to participate by joining our NFL Pick ‘Em League. The rules are simple: Choose the winner of each NFL game each week, then move them around in the order you feel most confident. You then receive points based on how many wins you correctly predicted and the confidence level you placed on each one.
For example, if you predict the Saints to beat Arizona and place the highest confidence on it, you’ll receive 16 points for the correct pick. Get it wrong, and you get zero for that one. Receive 15 points for a correct second choice, and so on down to one point for a correct pick you have the least confidence in.
To join and compete against us at NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune, you’ll need to have (or create) a CBSSports.com ID. It’s very easy to create one, and participate.
It’s free, and those who “beat the experts” will be mentioned here in the weekly column on Tuesdays. The winner of the league will be featured at season’s end.
TO JOIN, CLICK HERE. The PASSWORD is NOLA. If you have any trouble, feel free to email me at [email protected].
And it won’t be a secret who I’ll be picking from week to week. That’s what this column is about. On a weekly basis, I’ll offer advice on the teams to pick from top to bottom. If you don’t agree – or even better if you do – please feel free to offer your comments below.
Looking forward to competing against you and helping you win your Survivor Pool!
Let’s get started with Week 1 (home team in bold):
16 points: DALLAS over NY GIANTS, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
This is one of the toughest Week 1s I can remember, and the Survivor Pools are going to be chopped up right off the bat. After battling with which game I like most – this one or Indianapolis – I went with the Cowboys because they’re opening at home. Tidbit: Although they lost their opener last season to San Francisco, Dallas won their regular-season opener at home against the Giants in 2013. Spread is a bit high, though. Against the spread: Giants plus-6.5.
15 points: INDIANAPOLIS over BUFFALO, Sunday at noon
One of the favorites to win Super Bowl 50, the Colts certainly have upgraded their personnel in an attempt to do so. Buffalo also seems to be a bit better, and it will be interesting to see how Rex Ryan’s brand of football will work in a different corner of New York. When it comes down to it, do you really believe Tyrod Taylor is going to beat Andrew Luck in Week 1? Against the spread: Colts minus-2.5.
14 points: NEW ENGLAND over PITTSBURGH, Thursday at 7:30 p.m.
Ahh, the controversy is finally over. At least for now. I generally think the Steelers will end up as the AFC North champion and a contender to make a run at the title. But I wouldn’t want to play a ticked-off Tom Brady with something to prove right out of the (Deflate)gate. I don’t think you could go wrong making this your pick. Against the spread: Patriots minus-6.5.
13 points: MIAMI over WASHINGTON, Sunday at noon
This was the first game I noticed when looking for my top Survivor Pool pick, but then I thought “Do I really want to take Miami on the road in Week 1?” This will be a popular pick, but let someone else take the gamble. Obviously, Vegas thinks it’s anything but a lock. Against the spread: Dolphins minus-1.5.
12 points: DENVER over BALTIMORE, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Judging by the percentages of early picking, this seems to be the favorite among Survivor Poolers. Why does everyone seem to just dismiss Baltimore so often? While it’s hard to pick against Peyton Manning at home in his opener, I certainly don’t think it’s the cakewalk so many think it’s gonna be. Got bad vibes on the Broncos here, but I’ll pick them anyway. Against the spread: Ravens plus-4.5.
11 points: PHILADELPHIA over ATLANTA, Monday at 6:10 p.m.
Although I would consider Atlanta the early favorite in the NFC South, I think Philadelphia is the best team in the NFC. (And judging by my hate mail last week, there aren’t many who agree with me.) This could be one heck of a Monday night opener. I’ll take Chip Kelly over the rookie head coach in a squeaker. Against the spread: Falcons plus-3.5.
10 points: ARIZONA over NEW ORLEANS, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Oh boy. I guess all the Who Dats still flying on the magic carpet are going to take me to task for picking against their beloved Black and Gold to start the season. I’ll have to take the heat, because I don’t think this defense is going to be able to stop anyone in the early going, and the Cardinals’ D is too good to think the Saints will be able to pull of the upset in the desert. Against the spread: Cardinals minus-2.5.
9 points: TAMPA BAY over TENNESSEE, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
The Bucs are a prime candidate to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL, and they get a chance to start the season against the same old Titans. Against the spread: Buccaneers minus-2.5.
8 points: CLEVELAND over NY JETS, Sunday at noon
Vegas must really think the Browns are bad to have them as an underdog to this team – no matter where the game is played. I don’t agree with the sharks on this one. Against the spread: Browns plus-2.5.
7 points: SAN FRANCISCO over MINNESOTA, Monday at 9:20 p.m.
Although Colin Kaepernick seems to have regressed, here’s a chance for him to get back on track just a little. While I really like Minnesota to take a leap forward this season, especially with Adrian Peterson back, heading out to the West Coast on Monday night to start the season is a tough chore. Against the spread: 49ers minus 2.5.
6 points: HOUSTON over KANSAS CITY, Sunday at noon
Two teams going nowhere face off, and really, are you even considering taking this one to start your Survivor Pool season? Joe Q. Gambler and his friends seem to be putting their money on KC, which is enough for me to take Houston. Against the spread: Texans, even.
5 points: DETROIT over SAN DIEGO, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
The Lions have been a tough team to figure out over the past couple of years, while San Diego does a good job of letting people down. I have a feeling quite a few people will be knocked out with this one. Against the spread: Lions plus-2.5.
4 points: OAKLAND over CINCINNATI, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
And welcome to the “What in the holy heck are you talking about” portion of the show. If you read my predictions blog last week, you’ll know I am high on the Raiders. I also am very low on the Bengals. Well then, that makes this pick a lock, right? Against the spread: Raiders plus-3.5.
3 points: JACKSONVILLE over CAROLINA, Sunday at noon
While I do think the Jags are headed in the right direction, that’s not necessarily why I think they’ll win this one in an upset. It’s just hard to see the Panthers doing anything on offense with a one-headed monster. Cam’s good, but he’s not that good. Long season ahead for Carolina, and their fans will start off by saying “We really lost to the Jaguars?” Against the spread: Jaguars plus-3.5.
2 points: ST. LOUIS over SEATTLE, Sunday at noon
Hopefully, you’re still reading, although some of you are still reading just to get your daily laugh. No, I’m not smoking anything, and my fridge is on the fritz. Like I said last week, I like the Rams as the biggest surprise division winner. And if they’re going to hold true to my pick, they’ll need to win at home against the prohibitive favorites to prove me wrong. Against the spread: Rams plus-4.5.
1 points: GREEN BAY over CHICAGO, Sunday at noon
On the surface, this one seems easy. The Bears aren’t very good, and while the Pack has suffered some injuries to key players, they shouldn’t have much trouble in this rivalry game. Still, I abhor taking road favorites in division games, and I certainly wouldn’t do it – in a Survivor Pool or against the spread – in Week 1. Against the spread: Bears plus-6.5.
* Spreads are gathered from oddsshark.com on Tuesday of each week.
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2014 PICKS
STRAIGHT UP: Postseason: 6-5. Overall: 176-91 (.659)
AGAINST THE SPREAD: Postseason: 4-7. Overall: 127-108 (.540). (Didn’t start ATS picks until Week 3.)
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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