NFL preview week: Ten coaches on the hot seat in 2015
Only seven NFL head coaches were hired before 2010 as the annual Black Monday meat grinder chews up an average of three to six coaches in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league.
After four head coaches left their gigs a year ago (three were fired; Doug Marrone opted out of his deal), we see as many as 10 who could be in trouble heading into 2015 without producing more positive results.
Here are the 10 NFL coaches on the proverbial hot seat:
Jay Gruden — The Washington Redskins head coach has been embattled, as most Redskins coaches seem to be, from the day he took the job. He appears to be a headstrong, driven, offensively gifted mind, but that might not matter too much now — not with the layers of dysfunction reaching epic levels, even by Redskins standards. The RG3 power struggle was not won by Gruden; yes, he found a way to bench the quarterback he so clearly didn’t want running his team. But Gruden needs to be right about Kirk Cousins (gasp — he of the 2-7 starting record) or both RG3 and Gruden might be part of the annual Redskins housecleaning efforts.
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Gus Bradley — Look, Bradley seems to have desire and likeability in spades, and he knows defense. On top of that, there’s a patient owner in Shad Khan and a GM in Dave Caldwell who seem to have bought into the long-view future. That’s all well and good, but three-year plans are a tough sell on any fan base, much less one that has endured seven straight seasons without a winning record. Bradley has a cringe-worthy 7-25 mark and hasn’t proven to be enough of a game manager or quarterback developer (yet) to ensure his safe passage into 2016. Even if patience and promise still remain here.
Lovie Smith — You wouldn’t think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach in his second year with the team would be in too much trouble, not with a career 83-77 mark (including his 2-14 Tampa debut) and not with a rookie quarterback who could start 16 games. If Jameis Winston shows promise, Lovie’s handpicked quarterback surely will give him a stay of execution at least for another season. But another 2-14 season might be too much for any ownership of a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since — yep — the Super Bowl victory in January of 2003.
Chuck Pagano — It would appear odd that a team that was one game away from the Super Bowl would have a coach on the hot seat the following season, especially as the Colts boast an offensively gifted roster and stare a fairly cakey schedule in the face. But there appears to be a latent tension between Pagano and owner Jim Irsay over his contract, with Pagano turning down a one-year extension offer in the offseason and now heading into final year of his original four-year contract. Lame duck? Betting on himself? Whatever the case, Pagano has said it’s not a Super-Bowl-or-bust season, even if others wonder if Irsay — who once fired Jim Caldwell a year removed from a Super Bowl appearance — might want to go in a different direction if the Colts don’t end up in Santa Clara.
Tom Coughlin — Hot seat? Not exactly, perhaps. Coughlin likely has earned the right to walk away when he’d like, but that’s not to say that if the Giants struggle again this season (they have not made the playoffs the past three seasons) that Coughlin might not be strongly urged to step aside before he reaches the age of 70. There only have been a handful of septuagenarians who have been head coaches, and unless Coughlin can summon a magical run a la 2007 or 2011, there might be some pressure for Coughlin to step down and wait for his call for the Hall. As for the Giants, stow away the name of Brian Kelly; the Notre Dame coach is said to be a favorite of some high-up Giants brass and could be a prime replacement candidate, especially if the Irish have a big season.
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Jeff Fisher — There’s s sense in NFL circles that Fisher has found a way to walk between the raindrops with the Rams, showing little progress — records of 7-9, 7-9 and 6-10 — in his three seasons. He’s the NFL’s 14th-winningest coach and a respected member of the NFL’s competition committee, but that only goes so far. Owner Stan Kroenke has designs, we think, on moving the team to Los Angeles next year, and if the Rams don’t win — a tall order in a tough division if St. Louis fans bail and reduce any home-field advantage — Kroenke might have a hard time selling a retread coach (even one with L.A. ties) on the new community. This is a tricky situation to navigate.
Ken Whisenhunt — An uncertain ownership and front-office situation clouds the picture for Whisenhunt, who is coming off a 2-14 debut season in Nashville. He easily could be given a pass for inheriting a mess in 2014 and having to endure some likely growing pains with rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota learning on the job. But Whisenhunt still could be vulnerable if a new general manager with no ties or loyalty to him is brought in. Another 2-14 season might be too tough to stomach for a franchise that is trying to re-stoke excitement as it heads in yet another new direction.
Joe Philbin — Most arrows are pointing up in Miami. But that’s exactly what could make Philbin (23-25 in four seasons) vulnerable if the Dolphins don’t match expectations this season. Owner Stephen Ross has been publicly supportive of Philbin to this point, but Ross will want a better return on his investment with all the money he has spent the past few seasons on Branden Albert, Ndamukong Suh and an extension for Ryan Tannehill. With the New England Patriots potentially vulnerable with Tom Brady’s pending four-game suspension, the Dolphins need to strike now.
Jim Tomsula — This could be a one-year experiment. One-and-dones might be rare, but they are a little more common than many realize: Not counting interim replacements, there have been five (Bobby Petrino, Cam Cameron, Rob Chudzinski, Al Groh, Hue Jackson) who have lasted one season or less. The shakiness of the entire San Francisco 49ers organization is undeniable, and Tomsula’s public appearance hasn’t helped him appear to be a strong, steadying force. That won’t matter if he wins games and fields a competitive team this season, but it’s hard not to think he could be made an easy scapegoat and pushed under the bus for a sexier new candidate in 2016.
Marvin Lewis — Hasn’t Lewis spent most of his Cincinnati Bengals existence on such lists? Such is his lot in life, having rebuilt the franchise from the dregs and yet sporting an 0-6 playoff record he wears like a scarlet “A.” Four of the past five seasons, Lewis’ Bengals have been good enough to make the postseason but not good enough to advance beyond their first game. Part of that is on Andy Dalton, and part of it has been on ownership, which gave Dalton an extension and offered few viable long-term alternatives at quarterback. But Lewis, one would think, would have to win a postseason game this year to have a chance to continue coaching this talented team he helped build.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
