Chase Watch: There ain’t much drama heading into Richmond
If you were looking for a Richmond race full of drama for the final spots of the Chase, you’re probably going to be severely disappointed.
Without a bunch of surprises during Sunday night’s Southern 500 for drivers on the Chase bubble, the likelihood of drama at Richmond for more than one Chase spot was low. And there were no surprises. So while there are multiple spots up for grabs mathematically, there’s really only going to be one spot hanging in the balance at Richmond.
Anyone with a win in the Sprint Cup Series is in the Chase. That means Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Darlington winner Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch are in the Chase.
That leaves six spots for drivers who are currently winless. Those drivers are Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon, Paul Menard and Clint Bowyer. At the moment, none of those drivers are currently guaranteed a Chase berth. But barring a catastrophe at Richmond or an unexpected winner, they’re all going to make it.
If a driver currently outside of the aforementioned 16 wins Saturday night, one of the five drivers in the preceding paragraph will be knocked out. And as it stands right now, that driver would be Bowyer because he has the lowest point total of the five. But given the way the 2016 season has gone, the odds of a driver who hasn’t been named so far in this story winning are quite slim.
Slim also characterizes the Chase odds of Aric Almirola, the driver who is currently the first on the outside of the Chase. He’s 29 points back of Bowyer while Kasey Kahne is two points back of Almirola. To get into the Chase without a win, Almirola has to essentially gain 29 spots on Bowyer (or 39 spots on Menard) at Richmond. It’s 31 and 41 for Kahne. Yeah, it’s a tall task.
So why aren’t McMurray, Newman, Gordon and Menard locked in to the Chase? Because they aren’t a full race ahead of Bowyer. To be mathematically clinched into the Chase, the four would need to be 48 points (the points a race winner who leads the most laps earns) ahead of Bowyer. McMurray is 44 ahead of Bowyer. Newman is 32, while Gordon is 28 and Menard is 10.
Do you really think Bowyer will win the race and lead the most laps at Richmond while McMurray finishes 41st and gets passed in the standings by Newman, Gordon and Menard? While it’s possible, it’s not even close to likely. We won’t get into the minutae of the scenarios involving the latter three drivers, but trust us on this one. It’s going to be a major upset if more than one Chase spot changes hands at Richmond. And heck, it could be an upset if the Chase even changes at all.
But that’s alright. With the way that the summer has gone so far it’s hard to pick favorites for the final 10 races. What Richmond lacks in drama could be made up easily by the Chase.
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
