Nationals blow out Braves, turnaround coming?

For the Nationals, the prevailing reality is that, even after Thursday night’s ritual abuse of the Braves (WAS 15, ATL 1), they’re long-shots to make the postseason and thus erase their standing as the most disappointing team in a long time. After all, even after beating the Braves they’re six full games back of the Mets in the NL East, and 7 1/2 games behind the Cubs for the second NL wild card berth. Also keep in mind that we’re now ankle-deep into September. To bottom-line it, coming into Thursday the SportsLine Projection Model gave the Nationals just an 8.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.

That said, the Nats have before them an opportunity to make a race — or races, if we include the second wild card spot (and we should!) — out of this yet. We know about the in-a-vacuum, on-paper talent of the Washington roster. That’s at once the source of their high expecations and the foundation on which their ongoing 2015 washout is premised. Their near-term hopes aren’t about that, though. Here’s why the Nats, despite the deficit in the standings, the injuries, and Matt Williams’ managerial pratfalls, aren’t done yet …

The Nats have six more head-to-head games against the Mets. When you’re working from behind, as Washington is, getting a direct shot at the team ahead of you in the standings is just what you want.

But as noted duster-wearing independent contractor Omar Little said, “You come at the king, you best not miss.”

The “floor” for what the Nationals need to get done in these six games is winning four of them. Their first whack at the division leaders comes at home starting Monday. Then they’ll end the regular season with a three-game set in Queens.

Then there’s the rest of the schedule. The Nats have 29 games left. As noted, six of those come against the Mets. The other 23? They’re all against losing teams. Let’s look via screengrabs from the team’s schedule page …

Specifically, that’s 19 games against the Braves, Marlins, Phillies, and Reds. Those are some of the worst teams in baseball, and in most cases those teams are even worse after their deadline maneuverings. That’s one of the advantages of playing in a bad division in the era of the unbalanced schedule. As well, Washington gets to play 17 of those final 29 games at home. So a soft September gets even softer? Add it all up, and the Nats’ remaining opponents combine for a 2015 winning percentage of .444. That’s like playing the rest of your games, most of them at home, against a team that’s somewhere between the Brewers and Red Sox in terms of quality.

And what of the teams the Nats are chasing? Let’s have a look …

As you can see, the Mets also play an easy remaining docket (NL East!), but the Nationals definitely have the edge when it comes to the home-road breakdown. That’s the case also with regard to the Cubs, but the Cubs play significantly tougher teams the rest of the way. (It must be noted, of course, that the Giants are narrowly ahead of the Nationals in the wild-card queue.)

On another level, the Nats are as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. Ryan Zimmerman is back and raking, and Stephen Strasburg — recently limited by an upper back issue — figures to return to the mound against the Mets early next week. There’s no Denard Span, but Michael Taylor isn’t a bad fallback in center, especially once his value with the glove is taken into account.

In the end, no, the Nationals will probably not pull this off. Those above-cited playoff odds strike me as low but not to a staggering extent. That said, the schedule ahead — home-heavy, bad teams peppered with direct shots at the Metropolitans — will surely do its part. Now it’s on the Nats, at long last, to play like who we thought they were.

Are things finally looking up for the heretofore disappointing Nats? (USATSI)

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