Injury Analysis: Preseason Injury Quick Hits
Sports Injury Predictor has partnered with Rotoworld in 2015 to give you an even greater chance of winning your league this coming season. As a quick introduction we have an algorithm that figures out which players are more likely to get injured in the coming season. Follow us on Twitter @injurypredictor and check out our injury search engine here for the complete injury history and probability for every player in the NFL.
Draft season is kicking off and for most of us we are getting to that point of no return where decisions must be made on who we are considering at various rounds of the draft. There should be a huge focus on hitting those first round picks that will at the least meet the draft capital being invested in them. Evaluating risk and making sure you have a plan in place to mitigate the impact of these risks should unfortunate events occur is what will win you your fantasy football championship.
We did an article a few weeks ago that showed there is a very high incidence of injury recurrence when players get injured in the preseason. The crux of the piece of work we did focused on premier players who got injured in the preseason and how much more likely they were to get injured than those players who were not injured in the preseason. The takeaway was if a top tier player gets hurt in the preseason there is a 77% chance that they will get injured again at some point during the regular season.
Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, projections, exclusive columns, mock drafts and more, check out the Rotoworld Draft Guide.
Here is the breakdown of types of injuries that have taken place so far:
Total injuries: 73
Hamstring injuries
Hamstring injuries accounted for 38% of all preseason injuries. According to Medicinet.com hamstring injuries typically are caused by rapid acceleration activities when running or initiating running activity. Hamstring injuries are common in sports such as soccer, football and track. Injuries to the hamstring group of muscles can range from a minor strain to a major rupture. A minor strain is classified as a grade I tear, whereas a complete rupture, or tear, is classified as a grade III tear. Grade II tears are partial ruptures.
Below is a list of notable players who suffered from hamstring injuries (date of injury in parenthesis) along with some analysis as to how this affected their injury probability for the season.
Odell Beckham (6/1/15)
Significance: Medium
OBJ injured his right hamstring in OTAs and missed most of the offseason program along with the minicamp that followed afterwards. The injury was to his right leg which is the opposite leg than the one he injured last preseason. While he has been able to take part fully in the preseason and has not missed a beat with some great plays on the field the fact that he has struggled in the past with his hamstrings and that he is going so high up on draft boards makes this a mild concern.
LeSean McCoy (8/19/15):
Significance: High
So after spending his offseason throwing huge parties and weird tweets McCoy went down with a severe hamstring injury two weeks ago. You know it’s bad when the first thing uttered by the head coach is “don’t worry he didn’t tear the muscle from the bone”. Clearly they were worried that it was a very severe injury. Also, according to Dr. Jene Bremel of Footballguys.com images of Shady lying on the ground after the injury show him holding his leg high up near his buttocks rather than in the middle of the thigh. Strains at the end of the muscle are usually by the tendons and can take a long time to heal.
Either way, McCoy has not been seen on the field since and was not even close to suiting up for the two preseason games that followed.
Bad offensive scheme, reduced opportunity in the passing game, terrible QB situation and now a severe injury that has a high chance of recurrence. Avoid.
Dez Bryant (8/11/15)
Significance: Medium
Bryant sat out for two weeks after injuring his hamstring at the start of camp. We haven’t gotten a look at him this preseason and hamstring injuries to top tier players are worrisome due to the heightened chance of recurrence. We’re not recommending a fade by any means, Bryant has a legitimate shot to finish off the year as the number one wideout in the league. However, it’s something worth monitoring as we get closer to kick-off.
Editor’s Note: Help Rotoworld maintain its reputation as the leader in fantasy sports content by getting to know you better. Please take this survey to help us keep improving our coverage.
Darren McFadden (6/1/15 and 7/30/15)
Significance: Medium
McFadden getting injured should be about as surprising as snowfall in Minnesota. He has a very high chance of getting injured this season, previous hamstring injury in the offseason or not. It’s also worth adding that DMC is also easily one of the slowest healers in the league.
If we stepped into a time-machine and went back to 2012 when Run DMC was a top 10 overall pick it would be a problem. However in 2015 McFadden is basically free, playing behind a very beatable “starter” in Joseph Randle on an explosive offensive line. The discount you’re getting due to his injury likelihood actually makes him a bargain. He has looked electric in the last two preseason games and may only last a few weeks in the regular season but could very well be this year’s version of Ahmad Bradshaw.
Tre Mason (8/1/15 and 8/30/15)
Significance: High
Mason was primed to establish himself as the lead back with Gurley still rehabbing his knee and the Rams front office intent on bringing their new feature back in slowly as he recovers. Mason hurt his hamstring at the start of the preseason and then aggravated it again in the third preseason game. Mason has been listed as questionable for Week 1 by the coaching staff and his grip on the starting job may have already been loosened before Gurley even stepped on the field.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
