SEC Week 1 against the spread picks: Alabama a safe bet over Wisconsin – CBSSports.com
Sometimes I’m right, and I can also be wrong, of course, but I’m going to be here every Wednesday with against the spread picks for the entire SEC slate. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgement as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.
Ole Miss (UT-Martin), Missouri (SE Missouri State) and LSU (McNeese State) aren’t listed on most odds boards because they are playing FCS opponents, and therefore are not listed below. We do offer those picks over at the Expert Picks page, if you’re interested.
Thursday, Sept 3
South Carolina (-2.5) vs. North Carolina: A prominent theme for both teams this offseason has been improving on the defensive side of the ball. I’m not sure this early opener, on a neutral field, is where were are going to see the best bounce back from either unit. In fact, it has the potential to be a fun, high-scoring game. North Carolina’s offense, starting with a big offensive line up front, can steal the show here, but with a spread this tight and over/under that high I’m siding with the coaching advantage, which I think is with South Carolina. Gamecocks -2.5
Vanderbilt (+2.5) vs. Western Kentucky: I can’t be swayed from riding Brandon Doughty, Leon Allen and this Western Kentucky offense. I think Derek Mason, now leading Vandy’s defense himself, will have something in store for the WKU early, but Doughty is experienced enough to handle some in-game adjustments. Hilltoppers -2.5
Saturday, Sept. 5
Georgia (-35) vs. Louisiana-Monroe: ULM is experienced, but it’s not looking like one of the better teams during the Todd Berry era in Monroe. Georgia has an entire offensive backfield in need of working out, and spreading out those snaps and touches could increase the amount of expected scoring opportunities. Bulldogs -35
Auburn (-10.5) vs. Louisville: Todd Grantham got four looks at Auburn as a defensive coordinator in Athens, but the lasting image of the series from his vantage point was Nick Marshall’s deflected pass pulled in by Ricardo Louis. Josh-Harvey Clemons will be back in his first meeting against Auburn since that game as well, as part of a Cardinals defense that has reloaded with handfuls of transfer talent. I like the Tigers to win, but not enough to think they run away with the game. Cardinals +10.5
Arkansas (-33) vs. UTEP: Given the Hogs’ depth issues at running back, I can’t imagine Bret Bielema extending the game long enough to run up a seven-touchdown lead. Something more along the lines of 40-10 or 42-14 sound more likely. Miners +33
Tennessee (-20.5) vs. Bowling Green: Do you think Bowling Green can score 20 points against Tennessee? The Vols are talented enough to win this game, but covering the spread will require the Vols defense to either put up 45 or hold Dino Babers’ high-powered offense to less than 20 points. I think Bowling Green will score 20 but also fail to cover as this porous defense allowed more than 40 points on six different occasions last year, notably giving up 59 to Western Kentucky and 68 to Wisconsin. Vols -20.5
Texas A&M (-3) vs. Arizona State: I think Arizona State will have a great year but this is a tough spot for the Sun Devils. Texas A&M’s fast start each of the last two years has been a bit misleading in terms of success over the season (remember Kenny Trill for Heisman?), but the evidence from those pointsplosions does suggest that the Aggies will be ready to roll on Saturday. Aggies -3
Kentucky (-17) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette: This is one of SportsLine’s most confident picks of the weekend, and as a good company man, I’ll ride with the simulations and take the Ragin’ Cajuns. Mark Hudspeth has this program rolling after a strong to finish to 2014, his fourth straight 9-win season. The loss of quarterback Terrance Broadway shouldn’t set Louisiana back too much since he was banged up some last season. A big win would be great for Kentucky moving forward, but the Ragin Cajuns win too much to lose big in this spot. Louisiana +17
Florida (-37) vs. New Mexico State: Feels like a game where Jim McElwain can run the score up late if he wants to, though I’m not sure Florida is in a position to really roll the dice on extending the game given its offensive line depth. Still, scoring 40 might not take that many snaps when you consider that LSU, Texas and UCLA have all put up 50+ against the Aggies in the last two years. Gators -37
Alabama (-10.5) vs. Wisconsin: I’m totally ready to be proven wrong here, but until Alabama provides a quarterback that inspires confidence and a playmaker steps up on the outside, I’m going to assume a step back from the impressive 2014 levels of offensive production. That said, Wisconsin will likely try to run the ball against Alabama’s front with little-to-no success and this game could be a punting contest early. The Tide will pull away at some point and cover the spread for the third time in the last four years in these season opening kickoff games against Power Five opponents. Crimson Tide -10.5
Mississippi State (-21) at Southern Miss: This game, with a late kickoff in Hattiesburg, scares me a little, but Mississippi State seems like the kind of team that can win this game by 30, and definitely cover a 21-point spread. Maybe Todd Monken has this team fired up and ready to grab our attention with a 14-14 halftime score? We’ll see, but I’m riding with Dak Prescott. Bulldogs -21
Jeremy Johnson takes aim at Louisville in the Georgia Dome on Saturday. (USATSI)This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
