Rapid React: Tom Brady suspension overturned, ADP discount no longer applies
The DeflateGate saga has mercifully written its final chapter. No more talk of PSIs. No more endless, ridiculous spins. And no more unflattering Tom Brady courtroom sketches. First reported by Adam Schefter, the QB’s four-game suspension was nullified Thursday.
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It’s over (We sincerely hope).
Praise the football gods.
And for those entering the stretch run of fantasy draft season, the ruling couldn’t have come at a better time.
Over the past month, Brady was found on the discount rack. Going around pick No. 85 according Fantasy Football Calculator, he was a borderline QB1 with an obvious glaring flaw. If his four-game absence was upheld, he would’ve missed 30 percent of the fantasy regular season. Because replacement value at QB is easy to find in this air-heavy age, those who exercised patience at the position paired the two-time MVP with noteworthy fill-ins Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer and the Pats backup, Jimmy Garoppolo. In light of the overturn, however, taking out an insurance policy is no longer needed. Expect his stock to rise some 15-20 picks.
Will he be worth it?
Most believe Brady will unleash hell on the league, similar to what he did in wake of SpyGate. For a 38-year-old QB likely entering the penultimate phase of his career, that viewpoint, however, is a dangerous assumption. He doesn’t have Randy Moss this time around, though the wide receiver could certainly be coaxed out of retirement. Also, recall last year, Mr. Bundchen stumbled out of the gate. Over New England’s first four games, he averaged 197.8 passing yards per game and notched an uneventful 4:2 TD:INT split, an output which ranked him NO. 37 during that span. The face-plant immediately prompted “Is this the end?” questions.
But Brady quickly righted the ship.
From Weeks 5-12 he was the No. 3 among fantasy QBs, totaling just over 30 fantasy points per game in standard settings. Though he rebounded quickly, he wrapped up the regular season on a sour note, ranking outside the top-15 over the final five weeks.
Point blank, there are no guarantees Brady, possibly sans Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman to start 2015, will nuke defenses this year, even with a healthy Rob Gronkowski (Side note: He’s worth every penny in Round 1 with Brady under center). To be fair, three of his first four matchups (vs. Pit, vs. Jax, at Dal, at Ind) are very favorable. However, if he starts of strong, I would recommend selling high. I still feel Tony Romo, Ryan Tannehill, and Teddy Bridgewater are better, cheaper options over the long haul. A 4,100-yard, 30-TD campaign, which feels like a fair projection, would place him in the QB10-QB12 range.
Don’t overreach.
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