Sizing up September: 10 important storylines for the MLB stretch run
It’s September now. And while a good chunk of the sports world is going football crazy, we over here in the land of baseball are pretty excited about the month ahead of us too. We’ve got playoff races to watch, divisions to decide and postseason awards to lock up.
There will be excitement, disappointment, surprise and agony — and that might only be in the NL East.
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As we size up the month ahead, there are storylines abound, from these surprising teams like the New York Mets and the Houston Astros to the juggernauts hoping to escape disappointment like the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers.
So The Stew’s Mike Oz and Chris Cwik are here with the 10 most important storylines for the month ahead. Get ready, baseball fans, because this is going to be a fun one.
1. Can the Nats make a run … and what happens if they don’t?
No team will inspire more agony, anger and mockery than the Washington Nationals if they don’t make the playoffs. They were World Series favorites who will probably be also-rans by the end of this month. Entering Tuesday’s action, they’re nine games back from a wild-card spot and have a better chance of winning the NL East, where they’re 6.5 behind the New York Mets. If neither happens, if the Nats are sitting at home in October while people laugh about Bryce Harper’s “Where My Ring?” comment, there will be ramifications. Matt Williams will probably lose his job as manager, for one. And Harper’s MVP case — once thought to be a lock — may not be as strong. (Mike Oz)
2. The NL Central features the best three teams in the National League
The big question here is whether the injured St. Louis Cardinals can hold off the surging Pittsburgh Pirates. St. Louis has been able to remain in the driver’s seat all season despite injuries to Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday, among others. Though they might opt to rest some of their starters in anticipation of a postseason run, the Cardinals still look like the team to beat in the Central. Pittsburgh is absolutely a threat, but it’s tough to bet against St. Louis at this point. (Chris Cwik)
3. The Dodgers and the Giants battle for the West
As strong as the NL Central is, there probably isn’t room in the postseason for both the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have a 5.5 game lead in the division and still have the best World Series odds, according to Fangraphs. But the Dodgers have been an up-and-down team all year. While we’re waiting for them to show some of that $300-million muscle, they’re getting no-hit twice in nine days. So the Giants very much have a chance. They have the third-easiest schedule in baseball until the end of the season, playing the Rockies, Padres, Reds, D-Backs and A’s. The only above.-500 team on their schedule is, in fact, the Dodgers. They’ve got four games together at the end of the season in S.F. and they finish a three-game series in L.A. on Wednesday. (Mike Oz)
4. Will the Blue Jays finally break their playoff drought?
Get excited, Toronto fans, because it looks like that playoff drought is coming to an end. Everyone knew the Blue Jays could hit, but the team’s pitching staff has actually been much better since the trade deadline. Picking up David Price certainly helped, but R. A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Marco Estrada have all put up decent numbers as well. For a large portion of the year, the Blue Jays have had the best run differential in baseball. The Yankees are a big threat, but it’s starting to look like they won’t be able to unseat Toronto in the AL East. (Chris Cwik)
5. Are chickenpox the only thing that can stop the Royals?
The Kansas City Royals wouldn’t say it themselves, but they’re basically on cruise control. They’re 80-51 entering Wednesday, the best mark in the AL, and have a 13-game lead in the Central. Nobody’s catching them unless there’s a catastrophic collapse and that’s not happening unless the whole team comes down with a disease or something. So do you want to hear the latest news out of K.C.? There’s a chickenpox outbreak in the Royals’ clubhouse. Two players — Kelvin Herrera and Alex Rios — will be out for at least two weeks and the team is hoping no one is infected. Is that enough to derail the Royals’ postseason hopes? Hardly. But it might bring a little more chaos than expected to their final month. (Mike Oz)
6. Get ready for another crazy MVP debate
Unless Mike Trout or Josh Donaldson go into a complete tailspin during the final month of the regular season, we’re about to have one of the best MVP debates in recent history. Trout currently leads the pair in on-base percentage, but Donaldson has a slight lead in average and slugging percentage. He also holds a slight advantage according to fWAR, but it’s close enough that you could make the argument for either player. The numbers are close enough that the on-base difference might make Trout the frontrunner right now, but thankfully we have another month before we have to make that decision. (Chris Cwik)
7. Can Astros really win the AL West? Like, is that really happening?
Sometimes you just have to rub your eyes and ask if what’s in front of you is really happening. Like with the 2015 Houston Astros. We’ve loved the Astros’ underdog story all year and now, in September, things are getting really real. Like, this could actually happen. They’ve got a three-game lead in the AL West and even if that falls apart, they should be good for a postseason spot. The sneaky Texas Rangers are hanging out in division race, but the Los Angeles Angels, the favorites in the spring are 6.5 back. It’s won’t be a cakewalk into October, but the Astros look poised to at least get into the postseason. Yes, for real. (Mike Oz)
8. Did you bet on Kris Bryant to win the NL ROY award? Good!
Kris Bryant was the odds on favorite to take home the award at the beginning of the season, but found himself in a tough fight with Joc Pederson over the first few months. Pederson’s production has dropped off recently, but now Bryant has to deal with the pesky Matt Duffy. Duffy has a much higher average, but Bryant leads him in nearly every other offensive category. Pirates infielder Jung-Ho Kang is also lurking in the background. There’s still a chance both players can make a late surge, but Bryant still looks like the favorite. (Chris Cwik)
9. Will the Mets’ young starters to fresh in October?
Led by a young pitching staff, it’s looking like the New York Mets are bound for the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Having a young rotation is somewhat of a double-edged sword, though. While those young pitchers have played a pivotal role in the club’s success, there are concerns about innings limits. The club has already talked about giving Matt Harvey a rest, and it appears the same will happen with Noah Syndergaard. The Mets need both players to be fresh for a possible October run, but they need to make sure sitting their studs doesn’t lead to an epic collapse. (Chris Cwik)
10. The second AL wild-card is going to be the most chaotic race to watch
The playoff spot that will undoubtedly bring the most fun, chaos and unpredictability to baseball is the second AL wild card. The runner-up in the AL East, either the Yankees or Blue Jays should get the first one, but the second spot? Shoot, even the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are only eight games out. The Rangers own it at current (with a one-game cushion before Wednesday’s action), but the Twins, Angels, Rays and Indians are all within five games. If you’re looking for the race that will most likely come down to the final day, this is it. (Mike Oz)
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Mike Oz is the editor of Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @MikeOz
