BLS Roundtable: Pitchers poised for a Jake Arrieta-like breakout

You might not believe us, but we here at The Stew have acquired a time machine. Allow us to take you on a journey, all the way back to the year 2013.

You’re sitting in an establishment debating baseball with your friends. The topic of no-hitters comes up. Since it’s a fun game, you decide to ask your buddies which pitchers they think will throw a no-hitter during their careers.

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The first couple answers are typical. Your buddies rattle off all the biggest names in the game. Then, your pal across the table speaks up. He’s probably had too much to drink at this point, but it doesn’t matter. “Jake Arrieta,” he says. The table scoffs at him.

“Jake Arrieta,” you say, dumbfounded. “The guy with the career 5.23 ERA in the majors?” 

“I still believe he’ll figure it out someday,” your friend replies. 

Let’s travel back to the present. Your friend was right. Arrieta struggled mightily early in his career, but has blossomed into an ace with the Chicago Cubs. Now, at age 29, Arrieta is 17-6 with a 2.11 ERA this season. He has 190 strikeouts against 44 walks and has Sunday’s no-hitter on his list of accomplishments.

With that in mind, we’ve asked our experts to play a similar game. Which pitcher is next in line for a similar breakout? We’re looking for guys who haven’t put it all together yet, but have some skills, or have shown enough promise to make us believe.

MICHAEL PINEDA, NEW YORK YANKEES
Since arriving in the Bronx in a then-blockbuster trade with the Mariners in 2012, Pineda has not lived up to expectations. Injuries have been a major factor. After being an All-Star in his rookie 2011 season he missed all of 2012 with a rotator cuff injury then spent 2013 in the minors. His 2014 big-league season with the Yankees was off to a fine start before he was shutdown with a shoulder injury. He’s missed 25 games in 2015.

But the talent is there and if he can stay healthy for a 200-inning season, he has the potential to be very good. He has a five-pitch arsenal and tremendous movement though he’s lost some velocity since his rookie season. Pineda has the physical tools and potential to be a star, and to continue being drafted by me too early in fantasy drafts, waiting for him to breakout. (Ian Denomme)

DREW HUTCHISON, TORONTO BLUE JAYS
A popular breakout pick before the 2015 season started, Drew Hutchison has posted a 4.87 ERA in 25 starts and was even sent down to the minors for two weeks in August. If we can learn anything from Arrieta’s arrival as an ace though, it’s that sometimes it takes time for even the most talented arms to settle down and settle in.

For the second straight year, Hutchison’s ERA is significantly worse than his FIP predicts it should be. His strikeout (20.3%) and walk rates (6.7%) are both above league average, but his results so far don’t reflect the peripheral numbers. What’s holding the 25-year-old right-hander back is inconsistency with his slider and getting down on himself too quickly after a poor stretch on the mound. Easier said than done, but if he can clear those two hurdles, Hutchison’s got a chance to be real good. (Israel Fehr)

JAIME GARCIA, ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
After a promising rookie campaign in 2010, St. Louis Cardinals left-hander Jaime Garcia had pretty much fallen off the radar. Not necessarily due to performance, which has always been fair to pretty good when healthy.

But the problem has always been just that, staying healthy. From 2012-2014, Garcia made just 36 starts due to three separate shoulder injuries. When his name turned up on the disabled list again this spring, it was fair to question if he might be done completely. Now he’s back though and he’s finally looking completely healthy, which had led to impressive results. In 14 starts, he’s posted a minuscule 2.03 ERA. It’s a small sample size, but it’s also a reminder that Garcia has the ability to make a difference.

Garcia’s road to redemption might be slightly different from Arrieta’s because he’s never truly bottomed out, but a good run of health could put him on the same track to fulfilling his potential. (Mark Townsend)

RUBBY DE LA ROSA, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
It’s never been a matter of “stuff” with De La Rosa. His fastball averages 95.48 mph, and that was enough for the Red Sox and the D-Backs to take a chance on the youngster. Tommy John surgery delayed his chances of receiving significant playing time early in his career, but he finally became a full-time starter this season.

While his peripherals are solid, that hasn’t shown up in his ERA. De La Rosa’s 4.46 ERA is 10 percent worse than the league average. He’s managed this despite a solid strikeout rate, much better walk rate and strong ground ball numbers. Normally, when pitchers do those three things well, the results are better than this.

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De La Rosa’s biggest issue seems to be the lack of the third pitch and a home-run problem. When he misses his spots, or when his stuff isn’t perfect, it leads to a lot of big flies. Getting out of homer-happy Chase Field will help with that, and working with a new pitching coach could help him develop that third pitch. The stuff is tantalizing, he just needs someone to fully unlock it. (Chris Cwik)

TREVOR BAUER, CLEVELAND INDIANS
We’ve seen flashes from Trevor Bauer that suggest he’s getting close to delivering on his potential. Bauer, 24 and a former No. 3 overall pick, looked poised for a breakout this season, but he’s been a one-step forward, one-step back pitcher thus far. He looked good in the first half, but his post-All Star break ERA of 5.44 is not good at all.

Bauer struggles with walks (his 67 lead the AL this season), but when he’s on, he can be tough to hit. He’s had three games this season with 10 or more strikeouts. Bauer’s path could end up being like Max Scherzer, who was also drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks and traded away early in his career. They’re both smart pitchers who didn’t exactly thrill early on. Scherzer got it together and became one of the best pitchers in baseball. Bauer’s still just 24, so he has plenty of time to get right before he hits his prime. (Mike Oz)

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