Week 1 college football odds: The 10 best over and under picks – CBSSports.com
The college football season gets underway on Thursday, which also means the return of college football oddsmaking. We’ll have picks against the spread for you all week — and as always check out the great data and projections over on SportsLine — but right now it’s time to talk point totals and the best over and under bets for Week 1.
Each week, I’m going to offer up the five best overs and five best unders available on the college football slate. These selections are based off trends — at this point, all we have to go on is 2014 trends — with some help from SportsLine’s projections and, most importantly, my intuition.
Without further ado, here are the best overs and unders for Week 1 starting with my favorites, the unders.
Baylor at SMU UNDER 74.5: Yes, Baylor’s offense is great, and I know Art Briles isn’t afraid of running the score up a little bit, but SMU is an exceptionally bad football team. The Bears even showed mercy on the Mustangs in 2014 at home, beating them only by a final score of 45-0. Baylor might put 56 or, heck, even 63 on SMU, but it’s hard for me to see the Mustangs getting more than 10 points in this one — they were held to single-digit point totals in seven games last year. In short: Baylor scores a lot. SMU scores very little. Give me the under.
Michigan at Utah UNDER 46.5: Utah went under in 66.7 percent of games in 2014 and Michigan went under in 58.3 percent of its games. Each team has a good defense and run-heavy offense, so I expect a slow pace of play on Thursday night. This is going to be a physical, sloppy, nasty game in Salt Lake City that might not even sniff 40 points. Under, baby.
BYU at Nebraska UNDER 64.5: Both of these teams were great over teams in 2014 — BYU 69.2 percent, Nebraska 66.7 percent — but I’m going against last year’s trends for this pick. Mike Riley’s going to slow that pace down a little bit for the Huskers, and they don’t have the benefit of Ameer Abdullah in the backfield anymore. BYU gets Taysom Hill back at quarterback and they have talent on offense, but the pace keeps this one under the total. This won’t be a low scoring game, but it won’t be a shootout either and finishes somewhere in the mid-to-high 50s.
Texas at Notre Dame UNDER 53.5: The Longhorns hit the under in 69.2 percent of their games in 2014, and the offense hasn’t addressed its most pressing need, which is to get a competent quarterback. I like Texas’ defense, but unless Tyrone Swoopes took a tremendous leap forward this year, the Longhorns will continue to struggle putting up points. Notre Dame returns a lot of young talent on offense and Malik Zaire looked excellent in the bowl game to end 2014. It’s not a particularly high total at 53.5, but I think this one finishes just under in the high 40s, very low 50s. This isn’t a pick for the faint of heart as you’ll almost assuredly be sweating this one out ’til the very end.
Stanford at Northwestern UNDER 46.5: This point total legitimately cannot be low enough for me to take the over. Stanford went under in 75 percent of its games in 2014 and Northwestern was under in 63.6 percent of its games. You don’t have to have gone to Stanford or Northwestern to get that math. Neither team plays with pace or has anything close to resembling a dynamic offense. Stanford will get up by 10 points in the first half, which will be pretty much insurmountable for the Wildcats, and then the Cardinal will sit on the ball for eight minute drives until everyone watching’s spirits are destroyed. Under, a thousand times, under.
UNC and South Carolina should put on an offensive show on Thursday night. (USATSI)North Carolina vs. South Carolina OVER 64: Despite both teams having an under percentage over 50 percent in 2014, they each, on average, went over by four or more points. Consistency was not either team’s best attribute last season, but both can put up points in a hurry when presented with a less than stellar defense — and neither of these defenses would be described as particularly good. There should be a lot of points on the scoreboard in Charlotte on Thursday night, and when in doubt, I’ll take a Spurrier team to hit the over.
Oklahoma State at Central Michigan OVER 56: Both of these offenses can put up big numbers, but neither boasts tremendous defensive presences. Oklahoma State had eight games last year where the total reached 56 or more, while Central Michigan had five such games. The Cowboys are expected to take a step this year and be fringe contenders in the Big 12 behind the big three of Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma. They know that style points count, and Mike Gundy doesn’t pedal off late in games. Oklahoma State’s going to try and get 40-plus points and, in a track meet, this one runs over the total.
Arizona State vs. Texas A&M OVER 66: Arizona State went over 66 points in seven of 13 games in 2014; it eclipsed 59 on three other occasions. The three opponents that kept the point total under 59 against Sparky? Stanford, Washington and Utah — three of the four best scoring defenses in the Pac-12. Texas A&M does not have a very good scoring defense and the Aggies have a dynamic offense of their own. The Aggies were in games with point totals over 66 on five occasions last year and had four others over 59 points. I expect a lot of points and this one to creep across that over line in the mid-to-late fourth quarter of a close ball game.
Virginia at UCLA OVER 53.5: I’m buying in on the Josh Rosen hype — it helps when the 10 guys around him on offense are all returning starters from 2014. I think this one’s a revenge game of sorts for what was an ugly, sloppy game at Virginia last year. Lots of points from the Bruins with just enough from the Cavaliers to push this over the total.
Michigan State at Western Michigan OVER 58.5: Michigan State went over in 10 of 13 games in 2014 — 3rd highest over percentage in the country — while Western Michigan went over in eight of 13 games last year. The Spartans’ defensive reputation tends to make people believe they’ll hit the under, but they can put up points in a hurry. Meanwhile over on the Broncos side, P.J. Fleck is going to row that boat right along and try and keep up with Sparty stride for stride. Western Michigan keeps this thing just close enough at the beginning to force Michigan State to keep Connor Cook and the starters in for awhile and get this to an over.
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