Forde-Yard Dash: Biggest storylines, playoff picks and more – Yahoo Sports
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (slightly used Illinois gear sold separately at reduced prices at Tim Beckman’s house, which is also being sold separately at a reduced price):
[In this Dash: Playoff picks | What’s back | What’s not | Pressure gauge | Football paranoia ]
A WELCOME-BACK DECLARATION
To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson (who is none too happy about the state of Virginia football): We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, that among these are Football, Tailgating and the pursuit of Glory by our favorite college teams.
Thus, more or less, on July 4, 1776, America won the toss and elected to receive. And returned the kickoff for six. And proceeded to treat Great Britain the way Ohio State’s offensive line treated Oregon’s defensive front in JerryWorld to end last season.
And so was born a country in which absolutely anything can happen. A land of limitless possibility, and the latest reminders of that are quite evident some 239-plus years after T.J. and the underdog Colonists went deep on King George III. Namely, this: bizarre billionaire Donald Trump (1) is a viable candidate for president, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs (2) are ranked No. 2 in the preseason polls, and Vernon Adams (3) is the starting quarterback at Oregon.
New Oregon starting QB Vernon Adams has some big shoes to fill. (AP)
As recently as 2011, TCU was finishing a 16-year tour of college football orphanages and foster homes after being abandoned by the Southwest Conference and Big Eight when they semi-merged and formed the Big 12. After 72 years in the SWC, unwanted TCU wandered from the Western Athletic Conference to Conference USA to the Mountain West – shunned by the power structure and all but cut off from realistic national title contention – before realignment finally allowed entry into the Big 12.
The Frogs immediately regressed from annual double-digit victory totals to seasons of 7-6 and 4-8, and the establishment smugly assumed that the orphan should just be thankful to have a home. Then 2014 happened. They got the offensive formula right, went 12-1, shared the Big 12 title, shredded Mississippi in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl, returned almost the entire offense and, boom, here we are: TCU trails only Ohio State in the preseason pecking order.
Vernon Adams – not believed to be related to Declaration of Independence signers Samuel or John – is a similar made-in-America success story. Scantly more than two weeks ago, he was still tethered to FCS school Eastern Washington, where he had played with aplomb and distinction in near-total anonymity for three seasons. But upon successful completion of a math class and subsequent graduation from EWU, he created his own manifest destiny by moving further west to Oregon (4). He is immediately eligible and now is the starter on a top-five team.
This is, indeed, the Land of Opportunity. Seize it and celebrate it.
PLAYOFF PROGNOSTICATING
Because everyone has to have a preseason bracket prediction, here are the four teams The Dash believes will be there come early December:
Ohio State (5). The defending national champions have everything, but they also have a few concerns. First, four important players are suspended for the opener at Virginia Tech – three of them receivers, which compounds the importance of the season-ending injury to wideout Noah Brown. The fourth player suspended may be the best defensive player in America, end Joey Bosa. Second concern: the Big Ten East is no pushover, with Michigan and Penn State both seemingly on the improve, and Michigan State looming as probably the most powerful second-best-team in any conference. Despite all that, it would be a shock if the Buckeyes are not in the playoff.
TCU. The Frogs return almost every important offensive player from a team that averaged 46.5 points per game last year. And Gary Patterson knows how to coach defense. The sticking point is similar to Ohio State’s Michigan State problem: Baylor is an opponent that can keep TCU from getting to the Final Four. The Bears have beaten the Frogs the last two meetings, albeit by a combined six points.
Will Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide make it back to the College Football Playoff this season? (AP)
UCLA (7). Yes, The Dash is going back to the well that poisoned it last year. The Bruins were the national championship pick, a leap of faith that was betrayed immediately when they barely scraped past Virginia in the season opener on the way to going 10-3. But a leaky offensive line should be much improved, all the skill-position stars are back, and everyone is raving about new quarterback Josh Rosen. The defense will be better as well after the hiring of Tom Bradley as coordinator. The Pac-12 is going to put a team in the playoff, and there are more holes to fill at USC, Oregon and Stanford. So The Dash is dancing with the Bruins again.
WHAT’S BACK
The Dash notes four things that are making a return in 2015:
The Big Ten (8). The league won its first national title in 12 years in 2014, but snuck up on the nation in the process. This year, the preseason respect is real for a conference that had fallen behind the times. With the hirings of Urban Meyer, James Franklin and Jim Harbaugh, plus major bowl victories by Michigan State and Wisconsin last season, the bounce-back is gaining momentum. The league gets a pair of marquee opportunities Thursday night, with Michigan at Utah and Minnesota hosting TCU, plus the Labor Day spotlight on the defending champs. We will be talking about the Big Ten all year, and in more laudatory teams than in many years.
Jim Harbaugh (9). Someday, Harbaugh is going to be able to quote Michael Corleone: “Today I settled all family business.” He will beat Michigan State. He will beat Ohio State. He will win the Big Ten and compete for a national championship. That day is not today. It will take a while for the savior of the maize and blue to do some serious saving. But it will happen, and it will be interesting. His return to college football from the NFL is an instant adrenaline rush for the sport.
Tuesday Night Hyperventilating (10). That, once again, is the night when the CFP committee will release its Top 25 live on ESPN. The start date is Nov. 3, which is a testament to either the arrogance or the myopia of those in charge – it’s also the date of the general elections in America. While it’s not a major year in the election cycle, it’s still a conflict the committee would be wise to avoid. (Then again, this is the group that held a press conference at the Final Four in direct conflict with actual basketball press conferences at the Final Four. So perhaps The Dash shouldn’t be surprised.) Nevertheless, set your outrage schedule now for the weekly overreactions to the rankings.
Can Ezekiel Elliott carry the Buckeyes to another title? (AP)
The Star Running Back (11). For the past few years, the trend in football has been devaluing running backs. As the game gets more pass-centric, the focus has been on quarterbacks and receivers, and even the best backs have tended to get fewer carries. But that could change this year, with stars all over the map: Ezekiel Elliott at Ohio State; Nick Chubb at Georgia; Derrick Henry at Alabama; Leonard Fournette at LSU; Samaje Perine at Oklahoma; James Conner at Pittsburgh; Devontae Booker at Utah; Royce Freeman at Oregon; Donnel Pumphrey at San Diego State; and several others who can emerge.
The Dashette. Invite Jana Kramer (12) to your tailgate. Just in case she says yes.
WHAT’S NOT BACK
Four things we won’t be talking as much about in 2015:
The Anti-Hero Star Quarterback (13). From 2012-14, the leading man of the sport was a charismatic QB with a bad-boy streak that created as many detractors as fans. First it was Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M, then it was Jameis Winston at Florida State. In that time, they combined to win one national championship, two Heisman Trophies and 46 games – and created about 46 controversial storylines. The QB position will be a quieter place this season, which might be a good thing.
The Florida Gators (14). Why? Because the offense will still stink, even if it is better coached and better schemed than at any time during the Will Muschamp Era. Per the depth chart released Monday, the starting offensive line features a transfer from Fordham at left tackle and three others who have never started a game at the FBS level. The backups are all freshmen. And the quarterback playing behind that line (whoever he may be) is inexperienced. This is not an instant fix for new coach Jim McElwain.
The Atlantic Coast Conference (15). After a two-year run with Florida State going 27-1 and winning a national title, the ACC is the conference most likely to be shuffled out of the four-bid College Football Playoff. The Seminoles still have plenty of talent, but may be second-best in the league to Clemson. And not many people are willing to stick out their necks and call the Tigers a playoff team at this point. The Clemson schedule includes a non-league game against Notre Dame, a tricky Thursday night visit to Louisville and a game at rival South Carolina, where the Tigers haven’t won since 2007.
Chris Fowler (16). The nation’s tour guide for every fall Saturday is no longer on the best show on television, ESPN’s College GameDay. Fowler will, thankfully, call the Saturday night ABC game with sidekick Kirk Herbstreit, keeping their brilliant chemistry intact. Fowler’s departure from GameDay moves the impeccably prepared Rece Davis into the host chair and moves the marvelous and underrated Joe Tessitore into the Thursday night booth. Both of those changes will work out fine – probably even better than fine. But Fowler is a superstar host who will be missed on Saturday mornings.
WHAT MAY BE BACK
Four comeback candidates that aren’t sure things, but worth keeping an eye on:
Boise State (17). It’s been a few years since the Boise Bus was gassed up and busting through barriers into the college football inner circle. The Broncos have a lot of experienced returnees from a 12-2 team that defeated Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl, but still must break in a new starting quarterback and replace 1,800-yard rusher Jay Ajayi. The schedule sets them up for a possible third undefeated season in the last decade: Boise hosts Washington (and former coach Chris Petersen), then is at BYU in the first two games, and after that the coast could be clear. If you want to know the early favorite for lightning-rod playoff debate team, this is it.
Laquon Treadwell is back for Ole Miss after suffering a season-ending injury late in 2014. (AP)
Tennessee (19). The Volunteers have been locked in a miserable cycle of mediocrity for seven seasons, a staggering 22 games below .500 in SEC play in that time. Their travails have helped drag down the SEC East during that stretch. With Butch Jones having restocked the talent level in Knoxville, the Volunteers are due for a return to relevance – but with crossover games against Alabama and similarly resurgent Arkansas, plus a visit from Oklahoma, the schedule may conspire against them.
Penn State (20). Take these two things as articles of faith: offensive line play and quarterback play will be better than last year, if only because they couldn’t be too much worse. Now factor in a schedule that starts with six straight games in the state (five at home and a de-facto home game at Temple). Nine or 10 wins isn’t out of the question in James Franklin’s second season.
THE MAN TO THANK FOR A GREAT OPENING WEEKEND
The first week of college football is a great week, with interesting games all over the map. This is a relatively recent development, as schools slowly have moved away from guaranteed bloodlettings against Directional Tech.
The man to thank for this upgrade in our quality of football life? Gary Stokan (21), President and CEO of the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
Years ago, when the BCS added a fifth game to its annual stable, Stokan tried to maneuver the Chik-Fil-A into the BCS Championship Game rotation. Instead, the four bowls that had the monopoly on it – the Orange, Fiesta, Rose and Sugar – simply cut themselves an extra check by creating the double-host model.
So Stokan changed strategy and began looking at the front end of the schedule instead of the back end. The result was the creation of a neutral-site game in recruit-rich Atlanta that brought together a team from the SEC and a team from the ACC – the same formula that made the Peach Bowl/Chick-fil-A Bowl so successful for many years. ESPN was a willing partner as well.
The first game was in 2008, and it matched preseason No. 25 Alabama, in its second year under Nick Saban, against No. 9 Clemson. The Crimson Tide smashed the Tigers in an upset.
“Nick Saban would tell you, that was the start of their run,” Stokan said.
Alabama went back to Atlanta a year later and beat Virginia Tech, on its way to winning the national championship. Three years later, the Tide played (and smashed) Michigan in Arlington, Texas. A year after that, it was Virginia Tech again in Atlanta. Last year it was West Virginia in Atlanta, as Chick-fil-A began casting a wider national net for matchups. And this year ‘Bama is playing Wisconsin in Arlington.
What’s been good for the Tide can be good for others. Which is why we now have neutral-site games proliferating in Atlanta (Louisville-Auburn), Arlington (Alabama-Wisconsin), Houston (Arizona State-Texas A&M), Charlotte (North Carolina-South Carolina) – and, next year, Orlando (Mississippi-Florida State).
The go-play-somebody attitude is spreading to actual home-and-home series now, too. On Thursday, Michigan will play its first true road opener since 1998, at Utah. On Saturday, Texas will play its first true road opener since 1995, at Notre Dame. And on Monday, Ohio State will play its first on-campus road opener since 1998, at Virginia Tech.
Stokan described the Chick-fil-A kickoff game as a “five-way win” for schools that play in it. One, fans hungry for quality matchups win: he said both Auburn and Louisville sold out 30,000-ticket allotments for this Saturday, and TV audiences have been robust. Two, the coaches win, via TV exposure and the chance to make an impact with recruits in one of the most talent-rich football states in America. Three the athletic director wins – he gets a big check to play with (Louisville and Auburn each will get $3.25 million, and Alabama and Florida State will get $5 million apiece in 2017), without paying a seven-figure guarantee to a bad opponent. Four, the president wins because Chick-fil-A endows a $50,000 scholarship to each school. Five, the players win, because they get a high-exposure game against a quality opponent.
You know who else wins? The media, which has far better coverage options to start the season than it used to.
So the concept has caught on rather spectacularly: “Now we have people calling me, trying to get into the game,” Stokan said. “Somebody called me about 2025 already.”
First things first: he is currently working on filling games from 2018-21. Without naming names, it’s clear Stokan is hunting big game.
“We’ll look at teams outside the ACC-SEC matchup when we can put together a blockbuster game,” he said.
Given the recent satellite camp incursion South by Big Ten schools like Michigan and Penn State, wouldn’t it make sense if those and other schools wanted to play a game in Atlanta? Stay tuned on that. For now, give thanks for good viewing this Labor Day weekend to Gary Stokan, godfather of the neutral-site season opener.
PRESSURE GAUGE
Who is feeling it the most heading into the season:
COACHES
Urban Meyer (22), Ohio State. When you are the first unanimous preseason No. 1 in the history of the AP poll, expectations are as high as they can get. Meyer has the team to fulfill them, but any wobble will be met with widespread panic in Columbus. The Dash loves Meyer’s plan for dealing with the pressure: he shrank the focus and made it internal, emphasizing each individual unit becoming the best it can be. It’s a genius plan. As long as it works.
Gary Patterson (R), Trevone Boykin and TCU came up just short of making the College Football Playoff last season. …
Gary Patterson (23), TCU. Totally secure in his job, but the Frogs haven’t had this kind of prominence nationally since the Sammy Baugh days – and let’s be honest, there was no comparable media attention in the 1930s, just a few guys in fedoras taking notes. Patterson is his own dude, a bit eccentric and more comfortable when fewer people are in his business. How does he handle what could be a full season in the spotlight?
Steve Sarkisian (24), USC. A guy who has never lost fewer than four games in a season as a head coach has the No. 8 team in the nation and the preseason media pick to win the Pac-12. So you can guess who will be the fall guy if the Trojans – who lost a 1,400-yard rusher, a 1,300-yard receiver, their top two tacklers and top two in sacks – fail to meet expectations. Especially after Sarkisian’s ignominious appearance at the “Salute To Troy” function in late August. That already made him a punch line to Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin and some other Twitter wise guys. Losing on top of that would make him Lane Kiffin 2.0.
Brian Kelly (25), Notre Dame. Through five seasons in South Bend, Kelly’s record is one shining moment (the 12-1 2012 season that resulted in a BCS championship bid) and four years of eh (33-19). There is a lot of buzz about his sixth Fighting Irish team, especially regarding the defense. Getting back to double-digit victories would help convince the Irish faithful that Kelly is the man to wake up the echoes.
QUARTERBACKS
Vernon Adams. See above. Goes from Eastern Washington to the starter at powerhouse Oregon in the blink of an eye, replaces Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, is expected to keep the Ducks among the nation’s elite. Is that asking too much?
Whoever Urban Meyer Starts (26). Because his backup is a stud, too. And every time the starter throws an incompletion or the offense stalls, the TV cameras are cutting away to the backup on the sideline and fanning the flames of a potential quarterback controversy. (Best way to defuse the pressure: hand off to Ezekiel Elliott and let him trample everyone.)
Josh Rosen (27), UCLA. Touted true freshman was in for spring practice, which helped him win the starting job. Now all he has to do is replace a guy (Brett Hundley) who accounted for more than 11,500 yards and 105 touchdowna with the Bruins. Fortunately for Rosen, he is surrounded by experience and talent. But the schedule doesn’t give him much time to grow into the job.
Chad Kelly (28), Mississippi. Has made a name for himself thus far in college for reasons less laudatory than being Jim Kelly’s nephew. He was booted out of Clemson, went to junior college and then was arrested during the winter after a bar altercation in Buffalo, N.Y., and pleaded guilty to a non-criminal charge of disorderly conduct. Now he’s the “likely” starter for Ole Miss against UT-Martin on Saturday. All Kelly really needs to do is not screw up and the Rebels should be very good. We’ll see if he can manage that.
Notre Dame’s return to relevance will rely heavily on QB Malik Zaire (R). (AP)
Malik Zaire (29), Notre Dame. Played well enough in the Music City Bowl victory over LSU and spring practice to run off senior Everett Golson and claim the starting job. Zaire has a confidence that falls short of arrogance, and the Irish offensive coaches say he’s a diligent worker with a perfectionist streak. If he has a big season, so should Notre Dame.
COORDINATORS
Lincoln Riley (30), Oklahoma. He was the splashiest offensive coordinator hire in the nation, a 31-year-old whiz kid who lit up scoreboards at East Carolina and now will be tasked with getting the Sooners’ passing attack back on track after two years of puny production. Riley will be working with another guy who is new to Norman, Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield.
Relocated SEC defensive coordinators (31): John Chavis at Texas A&M; Will Muschamp at Auburn; Geoff Collins at Florida. SEC schools have a rich history of plundering each other for coaches, but even by their standards this was an active off-season. The Aggies pirated Chavis out of LSU and the Gators plucked Collins from Mississippi State, whereas Muschamp was available on the rebound after being fired as the head coach at Florida. Chavis and Muschamp should have a relatively easy time improving porous units. Collins inherits more proven talent but will have to keep the Florida defense dominant to compensate for another year of struggling offense.
Gene Chizik (32), North Carolina. There is an expectation this season that the faint-hearted Tar Heels will actually, you know, tackle. That they’ll reduce their ghastly stats of 2014 – 39 points and 498 yards allowed per game. That they’ll be enough of a deterrent that the Carolina offense doesn’t have to score on every possession just to hold serve. That expectation comes with Chizik, who was a very good defensive coordinator before he became a very bad head coach who happened to luck (ahem) into Cam Newton at Auburn.
Tim Beck/Ed Warinner (33), Ohio State. They combine to replace the guy who did as fine a job as any coordinator in the nation last year, Tom Herman. He was rewarded for his work with a revolving cast of quarterbacks in getting the head-coaching job at Houston. Now Beck and Warinner just have to not screw up a great thing, although the receiver position is in a state of injury-and-suspension-related flux.
ADMINISTRATOR
Mike Thomas (34), Illinois athletic director. For the moment. Last week the school announced it will have an online radio broadcast of its football games in Mandarin Chinese, since the school has more than 4,500 Chinese students on campus. Hopefully the announcing team of David He and Bruce Lu can find the Mandarin translation for “dumpster fire” to adequately describe the state of Illinois football – and the university as a whole. Thomas fired oafish football coach Tim Beckman a week before the season opener after an investigation alleged that Beckman tried to influence medical decisions and pressure players to play with injuries.
AD Mike Thomas (L) fired coach Tim Beckman Friday, one week before Illinois’ season opener. (AP)
Thomas should have fired Beckman after last season, his third on the job. It certainly would have spared him turning this season into a circus. Of course, Thomas is the guy who hired Beckman to begin with, and while it seemed like a solid hire at the time it backfired badly.
Illinois’ best hope for rebuilding is to clean house, which means taking Thomas out as well. But until he’s relieved of command, it’s his sinking ship to navigate.
FOOTBALL: THE PARANOIA CAPITAL OF SPORTS
Coaches close practices, erect barricades to keep the viewing public from seeing even a glimpse of anything, hide injuries, cover their mouths when talking on the headsets and generally behave like CIA operatives in the midst of the Cold War. So the trend of refusing to name a starting quarterback is not new or terribly surprising. But it now is reaching epidemic proportions.
Ten years ago, USC went 12-0 and made the BCS Championship Game despite ACTUALLY HOLDING PRACTICES THAT WERE OPEN TO THE PUBLIC. AND THE MEDIA. Have mercy on the soul of Pete Carroll, who clearly has had his career curtailed by excessive openness.
Yet today secrecy is all the rage, and never more than in the preseason when a team doesn’t have a clear-cut starting QB. Among the current citadels of secrecy:
Twenty-nine percent of the SEC (35). Alabama, Vanderbilt, LSU and Florida have yet to say who their first-team QB is. ‘Bama’s depth chart is especially humorous, listing five names and three “ors” at QB – the only name missing is Richard Todd. But at least the Crimson Tide and Commodores play opponents they could lose to – Wisconsin and Western Kentucky, respectively. As for the others? Apparently the Tigers need that extra secrecy edge to handle McNeese State, as do the Gators against New Mexico State.
Michigan/Ohio State (36). At least the Wolverines have produced a depth chart, even if it’s currently populated with a total 16 “ors,” including two at quarterback. The Buckeyes haven’t yet published one, although in fairness they also play four days later, on Labor Day. You could say Meyer is being evasive with his QB decision because of the seemingly different strengths of J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones, but Meyer himself said Monday, “If you look at J.T.’s game plan when he was our quarterback and Cardale, it’s very similar.” So if you believe Meyer – cough – this is simply a case of cloak and dagger for the sake of cloak and dagger.
Washington (37). Depth chart still lists a three-way battle for the starting job, between junior Jeff Lindquist, redshirt freshman K.J. Carta-Samuels and freshman Jake Browning. With a Friday game at Boise State, something tells The Dash that Chris Petersen has a pretty good idea who is taking that first snap on the blue turf. He just isn’t telling.
Louisville (38). This Monday from the always-transparent Bobby Petrino: “We will release a two-deep tomorrow and we are waiting because Auburn is releasing theirs tomorrow so we will do it at the same time. There will be some ‘ors’ in there, obviously at the quarterback spot and a couple of the offensive line spots where there is still competition. …” Maybe that’s the next step: keep the opponent guessing about who the starters are at guard.
POINT AFTER
Tanjong Beach Club
It was listed as one of Conde Nast’s top beach bars in the world in 2014, and it’s holding up very well in 2015. Wading into the idyllic lagoon that leads to the South China Sea, you’d think you were on Gilligan’s Island instead of being just a few minutes from a Manhattan-esque downtown. They pull it off quite nicely in Singapore.
Have a Beerlao Lager (40), the National Beer of Laos, and thank The Dash later. And you will thank The Dash later for recommending a light and refreshing beer in the very serious humidity of Singapore. Like, makes-New-Orleans-in-August-seem-pleasant humidity.
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