Draft Analysis: Player-by-Player ADP Notes
With draft season raging like Anquan Boldin after an eight-yard catch, here’s a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the top 120 players by ADP. These are not my personal rankings. My top 25s can be found here. ADPs courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com, and based on standard-league data culled from Saturday-Sunday.
Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, projections, exclusive columns, mock drafts and more, check out the Rotoworld Draft Guide.
Round 1
1. Adrian Peterson (RB1) — There’s no clear-cut No. 1 this season, but it shouldn’t be a 30-year-old back with 23 touches over the past 20 months.
2. Le’Veon Bell (RB2) — The two-game ban hurts, but so did Josh Gordon’s in 2013.
3. Eddie Lacy (RB3) — The owner of this year’s highest floor, Lacy is an auto-draft at No. 3 overall.
4. Jamaal Charles (RB4) — Both Charles’ ceiling and floor are lower than a handful of the backs going behind him.
5. Antonio Brown (WR1) — Safe and steady like a government bond, but a bit early considering the high-end depth at receiver and jumbled state of RB6-15.
6. Marshawn Lynch (RB5) — You could take him at No. 1 and win your league.
7. Dez Bryant (WR2) — The top combination of floor and ceiling at his position.
8. C.J. Anderson (RB6) — Ronnie Hillman looms. Anderson “safer” in the RB8-10 range.
9. Julio Jones (WR3) — I wouldn’t take Jones over clockwork Demaryius or stratospheric Beckham.
10. Demaryius Thomas (WR4) — Has compelling case to be first receiver off the board.
11. Jeremy Hill (RB7) — Hill is no longer a true bargain, but boasts No. 1 overall upside wherever he’s taken.
12. Matt Forte (RB8) — Forte isn’t a first-rounder, and arguably belongs in the third.
Round 2
13. Odell Beckham (WR5) — Beckham has the kind of upside you shouldn’t be able to find at No. 13.
14. Andrew Luck (QB1) — It’s early for a quarterback, but hard to argue with getting the odds-on favorite to be fantasy’s top player in the second round.
15. Calvin Johnson (WR6) — Megatron has peaked, but he’s not in the Fitzgerald Valley.
16. DeMarco Murray (RB9) — Far too low for last year’s RB1. At the very least, Murray is a no-brainer ahead of Forte and Anderson.
17. Rob Gronkowski (TE1) — Gronk will go in the first rounds of many drafts, so be glad if you get him in the second.
18. Randall Cobb (WR7) — I’m not taking Cobb ahead of A.J. Green, but his shoulder injury doesn’t appear to be a concern for Week 1.
19. LeSean McCoy (RB10) — His quarterback, coordinator and recent injury history are just three of the reasons Shady could struggle to match last year’s RB11 finish.
20. A.J. Green (WR8) — Green was the WR5 in both 2012 and 2013. He led receivers in yards per route run last season. He’ll easily outperform his draft position if he stays healthy.
21. Justin Forsett (RB11) — Crazy upside in Marc Trestman’s offense, but an even-crazier track record. RB11 is the right price for Forsett’s risk-and-reward cocktail.
22. Aaron Rodgers (QB2) — Jordy Nelson’s injury is a cobweb on Rodgers’ ceiling, but not enough to knock him from the top two at QB.
23. T.Y. Hilton (WR9) — I wouldn’t take Hilton ahead of Alshon Jeffery or Mike Evans, but he belongs in the top 12.
24. Lamar Miller (RB12) — Miller cloned Jamaal Charles’ 2014 while you weren’t looking. The arrow is still pointing up.
Round 3
25. Brandin Cooks (WR10) — There’s some wishful thinking required to take Cooks ahead of Jeffery and Evans, among others, but the top 10 isn’t outlandish.
26. Frank Gore (RB13) — Gore is a used part, but capable of big things in the Colts’ V12 offense.
27. Alshon Jeffery (WR11) — Jeffery should coast to another top-12 finish with Brandon Marshall out of the picture.
28. Jordan Matthews (WR12) — Aggressive, but Chip Kelly has coaxed superstar seasons out of two different No. 1 receivers in two years on the job. Many reasons to believe Matthews will make it 3-of-3.
29. Mike Evans (WR13) — Evans will finish in the top 12 if he stays healthy.
30. Mark Ingram (RB14) — Ingram was a potential overdraft that ended up going right where he should.
31. Latavius Murray (RB15) — Murray’s upside is legitimate, but his floor opens up into a hole that comes out on the other side of the earth.
32. Jimmy Graham (TE2) — Graham has the role and quarterback to atone for last year’s disappointment.
33. Alfred Morris (RB16) — This is probably still too high for a player who might get Pipp’d by Matt Jones.
34. DeAndre Hopkins (WR14) — This is the right price for a player at the crossroads of Brian Hoyer and infinite targets.
35. Emmanuel Sanders (WR15) — Fantasy drafters are showing surprising/warranted restraint with last year’s WR7, but this might still be too high.
36. Joseph Randle (RB17) — Just as likely to be dropped by mid-October as he is to run with DeMarco Murray’s old job.
Round 4
37. Davante Adams (WR16) — A “role pick” if there ever was one, Adams is far more realistic as a WR3 than high-end WR2.
38. Melvin Gordon (RB18) — Rookie backs are some of the most reliable underperformers in fantasy football, but this isn’t a bad price for a player with a three-hour mail route on first and second down.
39. Carlos Hyde (RB19) — Hyde’s slow start to camp and Reggie Bush are concerns, but the second-year second rounder has run well this summer. A sensible cost.
40. Ameer Abdullah (RB20) — Be honest with yourself — you’re projecting your own hopes and dreams onto Detroit’s rookie back. You’re also taking an understandable gamble on an electric runner’s role, talent and competition.
41. Doug Martin (RB21) — A riser if there ever was one, Martin is neither a bargain nor a reach.
42. Andre Johnson (WR17) — Does Johnson have another Lazarus act in him? Andrew Luck the right place to go for a resurrection.
43. Peyton Manning (QB3) — People are probably pricing in only half of Manning’s risk, but QB3 isn’t crazy talk.
44. Amari Cooper (WR18) — It’s an overdraft. Be happy if Cooper matches Sammy Watkins’ WR25 finish from last season.
45. Golden Tate (WR19) — Another overdraft, but Tate’s floor masks some of the upcharge.
46. Jonathan Stewart (RB22) — Stewart’s injury history is 40 pages long and comes in three languages, but this isn’t egregious based on the backs going behind him.
47. Andre Ellington (RB23) — Ellington has little shot at finishing as an RB2.
48. Chris Ivory (RB24) — A top-15 darkhorse you should be glad to get after Randle.
Round 5
49. Keenan Allen (WR20) — Allen is coming with surprisingly little markdown after last year’s catastrophe, but WR20 is not far fetched.
50. Arian Foster (RB25) — Foster soft-tissue injuries have become the stuff of legend, but you don’t let this kind of upside slide any farther down the board.
51. Brandon Marshall (WR21) — Like Allen, Marshall is being bought at full price, but he’s as plausible a rebound candidate as any.
52. Jeremy Maclin (WR22) — A top-15 receiver coming with a Dwayne Bowe discount.
53. Jarvis Landry (WR23) — Landry is polishing floors, not painting ceilings, but has WR2 potential all the same.
54. Russell Wilson (QB4) — Last year’s rushing numbers could prove tough to match, but there’s nothing unreasonable about this valuation.
55. Todd Gurley (RB26) — Jeff Fisher lets rookies age like wine in a cellar, but Gurley’s draft position and Fisher’s lack of job security should conspire to create a big early-season role.
56. Travis Kelce (TE3) — A perfectly reasonable spot to take a shot on a darkhorse for TE1 overall status.
57. Drew Brees (QB5) — The Saints are sobering up on offense, but Brees will still accumulate 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns.
58. Ben Roethlisberger (QB6) — Last year’s QB3 has to deal with suspensions, but is playing the best football of his life.
59. Greg Olsen (TE4) — Olsen’s odds of approaching last season’s career year improved exponentially with Kelvin Benjamin’s injury.
60. T.J. Yeldon (RB27) — Ticketed for a three-down role, Yeldon is shaping up as a real bargain after missing most of the preseason.
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