Going Deep: High-Target Receiver Sleepers

Fantasy football success comes at the intersection of talent and opportunity, but at this theoretical intersection opportunity is the highway and talent is the avenue. We have seen plenty of low-talent grinders like Zac Stacy vault into fantasy relevance simply based on volume, and there are plenty of theoretically high-talent players languishing on Dynasty benches because they cannot find playing time. Talent is great, but without the opportunity it is meaningless.

Nowhere is this relationship between opportunity and fantasy points more evident than at the wide receiver position. Every single wide receiver who finished in the top 20 of PPR last year had at least 115 targets, and Randall Cobb’s 127 targets were the fewest of anyone in the top 12. Of the 111 individual seasons with 120 targets or more over the last five years, just eight have resulted in finishes outside the top 30 in PPR scoring. If a player reaches 120 targets, they are very likely to return WR3 value.

All of this means identifying low-priced receivers with big-target upside is an important exercise when preparing for a draft. Here are some wide receivers going outside of the top 30 at the position who have a real shot at 120 targets this season.

Three steps to fantasy football glory. Buy the Rotoworld Draft Guide, stay up to date on all the breaking news at the Rotoworld News Page, and follow @Rotoworld_FB and @RMSummerlin on Twitter. Championship.

Davante Adams – WR32

This one is kind of cheating because he is already going inside the top 30 and his ADP will reflect that before draft season is over, but it is a great chance to talk about the most important news of the week. The season-ending injury to Jordy Nelson has created a massive target hole in the Packers’ offense. Nelson was the target on 28.4 percent of the Packers’ throws last season, and his 151 targets were the fourth most in the league. He had just one game all season with less than five targets.

Adams might not soak up all of those looks, but he is in a great position to take on the vast majority of them. Adams’ main competition for targets will be Randall Cobb, Jeff Janis, Ty Montgomery and Richard Rodgers. There is not much room for target growth for Cobb, who already saw 127 targets last season and had never gotten more than 105 targets in a single season before last year. He could certainly jump into the 140-150 range, but Nelson last season was the first player in the Aaron Rodgers’ era to break the 150-target mark. Rodgers tends to spread the ball around, even if he is spreading it around to names like James Jones and Jarrett Boykin.

The other three options are all even more unproven than Adams, who at least has a full season of snaps and 38 receptions under his belt. Perhaps whoever emerges out of the battle for the No. 3 sport takes the majority of Adams’ 66 targets from a year ago, and Richard Rodgers adds 30 targets to his total from last year. Not predicting any falloff from Andrew Quarless, who will almost certainly see less than 46 targets this year, we still have enough left over for Adams to reach 120. Those looks plus his touchdown upside – he scored 24 touchdowns his final year at Fresno State – make him a solid WR2 with the possibility for more.

Charles Johnson – WR30

Perhaps the most important thing to know about Charles Johnson’s chances of reaching 120 targets is where he stands on the depth chart. The news coming out of Minnesota this offseason has consistently painted a picture which showed Johnson as an ascending player. Norv Turner called him “far and away” the best receiver on the roster in February, ESPN’s Adam Caplan said Johnson was “the real deal” in training camp, and The Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Matt Vensel said Johnson is “the receiver Teddy Bridgewater trusts most.” Even with Mike Wallace in town, Johnson plays the right position and has the right profile to lead the team in targets.

The real question is how many targets are available in the offense? Minnesota threw on 58 percent of their plays and attempted 517 passes last year. Both numbers ranked in the bottom half of the league. More worryingly, Bridgewater’s attempts per game actually decreased as the year went on. Following the team’s Week 10 bye, Bridgewater averaged just over 29 attempts a game and attempted more than 30 passes in just two of seven games. Together with the potential impact Adrian Peterson could have on the run-pass split, these numbers do not bode well for Johnson’s target chances.

There is some reason for optimism, however. The Vikings only ran 981 plays last season, which is almost 100 less than Norv Turner called with Cleveland the year before and slightly less than Turner averaged in San Diego. There is a chance the Vikings increase the tempo in Bridgewater’s second year in the league. Even if they do not, Johnson was still able to manage 6.7 targets over the final seven games of the year, which is a 107 target pace. That is not quite 120, but a slight uptick in tempo or attempts could get him across the finish line.

John Brown – WR37

Saying John Brown has a chance at 120 targets is not the most courageous piece of prognostication considering he topped 100 as a rookie despite playing behind Michael Floyd for the majority of the year. With Floyd uncertain for the beginning of the year and likely stuck behind Brown on the depth chart regardless, it is not a far-fetched notion that Brown gets the roughly one extra target a game he needs to reach 120, especially if Carson Palmer is able to stay healthy and the Cardinals’ running game struggles again.

The great news is the drafting public has yet to realize Brown’s potential for growth. Though Brown was not efficient with his targets at any point last season, he was markedly better with Palmer under center. He caught 50 percent of his targets in games Palmer started and just 45 percent of the passes thrown by the other Cardinals “quarterbacks.” Natural progression in his second year could see him climb closer to the 55 percent career mark of DeSean Jackson, who has a similar usage pattern.

There are a lot of ifs surrounding Brown, but those ifs are not that far-fetched. It would be surprising if the sophomore did not outplay his current draft price, and he has the upside to be a weekly low-end WR2. That is an easy bet to make in the eighth round.

Devin Funchess – WR43

Like Adams, this one is cheating a bit because Devin Funchess’ ADP is sure to climb following the season-ending injury to Kelvin Benjamin. Unlike Adams, however, there is a real chance Funchess remains outside the top 30 despite Benjamin’s injury. There were plenty of people – present author included – who did not like Funchess in the pre-draft process, and Funchess does not have a great showing in a nationally televised game pushing him up the draft board like Adams does. Together, those two things could slow Funchess’ climb up the draft board. All in all that might be a good thing.

Funchess has a decent shot at 120 targets. Benjamin saw 26.6 percent of the Panthers’ targets last season while the rest of wide receivers on the roster saw a combined 31.9 percent. Greg Olsen could be asked to take on some of Benjamin’s targets, but he was already at 123 looks last season, which was the fourth highest among tight ends. Someone has to get those targets, and Jerricho Cotchery, Corey Brown, Ted Ginn or Jarrett Boykin are not better options than Funchess. At least we are not positive Funchess is bad, old or unable to function as anything more than a deep threat.

The concern with Funchess is he very well might be bad. Benjamin was inconsistent and inefficient last season, but he at least show an aptitude for using his size to win in contested situations. Funchess rarely did that in college, and he often times played smaller than his 6’4, 232-pound frame. On top of that, he has the same hands concerns as Benjamin. If Funchess stays outside the top 40 he is worth a shot on volume alone, but it will be difficult to select him ahead of receivers like John Brown or Eric Decker.

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.