Weekly Picks: The Bargain Hunter – Week 4
John Terry really didn’t need to give me more reason not to like him.
Terry has been the biggest flop in my industry expert’s league team so far this season. Through three weeks, he has totaled a whopping .3 points. There is no punctuation error here. That is supposed to be a decimal in front of the “3”. One-tenth of one point per game on average, and with a suspension, that average…well, it will stay right where it is. You cannot do less than (.1) or else you have nothing. I guess I can say Terry has technically been better than nothing.
In spite of it all, it was another great week for getting the result in draft leagues. I am now a combined 6-0 in the two highly competitive leagues I participate in, with the most points scored to date in one, and the third most (16 team league) in the other. My FPL side on the other hand…well, I am holding my wildcard but I have a lot of work to do after starting the season with disappointing contributions from the likes of Harry Kane and Sadio Mane.
What I couldn’t help noticing after last week’s Bargain Hunter was how many of the players I suggested were scooped up later that week in the two leagues I am in. On one hand, it is flattering knowing at minimum, I am thinking along the same lines as my colleagues, but even more pleasing is the notion that others may be considering my column before playing the wire. I rushed to Twitter to alert readers that if Bacary Sagna was still available in their league, to run out and get him because news had emerged that Pablo Zabaleta was at least another month away from returning to action. Within the hour, he was ransacked in both of my leagues.
I should take my own advice next time.
Before we look at this week’s selections, a reminder that we are entering the final week of the transfer window. Quality players are still being added to the game and if you are keeping on top of the player list in your league, you might get the edge on your rival in getting that player into your team before most even know they are available. Perhaps you witnessed a pretty good debut in Week 3 by this Pedro guy? Yes, he should be on the waiver wire in draft leagues now. Run, do not walk, to put in a claim. If it is a monetary bid, prepare to break the bank if you want to be the winning bidder. In my belief, you bid as much as you can while still leaving enough to make a few emergency moves. Pedro could be a top 10 overall player at season’s end. The ones to watch for and bid on this week are:
Pedro – CHE midfielder/forward
Florian Thauvin – NEW midfielder
Nicolas Otamendi – MCI defender
Otamendi should slot into the Manchester City defense immediately, though Eliaquim Mangala is doing his best to fend off the inevitable. City’s defense is much improved this season with a rejuvenated Vincent Kompany. In case you haven’t noticed, they have yet to concede once in three games. Otamendi is worth a #1 waiver claim and plenty of FAAB if you use a bidding process. Remember though that for leagues like Fantrax, defenders, no matter how good they are, do not generally put up as big of numbers as attacking players do. So while Otamendi needs to be owned, I would be a bit more frugal than with Pedro. Thauvin is a bit of a wild card. He should become a regular quickly at Newcastle. Pedro showed us immediately that he can adapt to the PL, but Thauvin still has to prove that. Plus the Magpies in general, with many new players trying to settle, are capable of flopping again this season and Thauvin could be another Remy Cabella. Worth a high claim but not too much FAAB cash I think.
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A reminder again of what I look for in my bargains and how I differentiate their value…
One Week Buys (OWB) – when a regular is suspended for a match, ineligible to face his parent club as a loanee, or his fill-in looks to deputize for only a week while the regular nurses a minor injury, this is where to find some replacements. They should only be looked at when you really need help at a position that week alone, and not looked at as long term plays. Best for salary cap leagues with unlimited transactions.
Short-term Buys (STB) – when a regular faces a multi-game suspension, an injury layoff lasting 2-5 weeks, international commitment, etc., this is where you look for players that can offer more beyond one week but do have a limited shelf life in most cases. Worth using a waiver claim or spending a bit more of your free agent budget (FAAB) than the One Week Buys. Can be useful in FPL format as long as you are comfortable with possibly needing to transfer them out in a few weeks.
Long-term Buys (LTB) – when a regular is either facing a month or more out or has lost his spot seemingly to someone better, these are the players that emerge as potential long-term investments and are therefore the most valuable of the group and worth paying up considerable FAAB for. Great for any format, but especially valuable in the FPL.com game.
THE BARGAINS
GK – Boaz Myhill (WBA) – There is no secret that Myhill is behind Ben Foster in the Baggies’ pecking order and that the former is merely holding the spot until the latter returns, but I still think it is criminal that Myhill is owned in only 37% of Fantrax leagues. Foster is not due back until some time in October, so there should be at least another month of Myhill and now that the tough fixtures of Manchester City and Chelsea from the first three weeks are out of the way, the West Brom schedule begins to lighten up. Rivals in your league may have stayed away because of the opening fixtures, and Myhill predictably isn’t near the top of the leaderboard. So while others sleep on his prospects, you can grab him and use him. Just have a replacement plan in place for when Myhill gives the spot back to Foster. He is wavering between a STB and a LTB.
DEF – Kurt Zouma (CHE) – Hard to believe that last season, Branislav Ivanovic and John Terry were at the top of the list for fantasy defenders, and now three weeks into the new campaign, they have COMBINED in the FPL game for a total of ZERO points. On paper, you could have me playing defense for Mourinho and I wouldn’t do any worse. Well, when things go bad in the PL, it usually signals a buying opportunity for an up-and-comer. Kurt Zouma was generally impressive last season when given his first real look and has already appeared in all three games so far this year. It stands to reason then, that until John Stone shows up, Zouma stands to earn some starts, definitely in Week 4 with Terry serving his suspension. Because the situation is unclear past Week 4, I will only recommend Zouma as a OWB, but understand he is capable of delivering much more than that.
DEF – Leandro Bacuna (AVL) – While Micah Richards and Jordan Amavi are owned in over 60% of leagues in Fantrax, Bacuna is owned in less than 30%. And though Richards and Amavi have outscored Bacuna in that format so far this season, Bacuna has plenty of appeal. He is lining up as a fullback, which is his designation in fantasy, but understand that he is capable of playing out-of-position and loves to get forward. It seems like he can be a OWB for this week if you are looking for an inspiration as Villa host Sunderland, however if you buy him, you may fall in love and hold on to him. Salary leagues and FPL managers can see him as a STB, with home games against the Black Cats and West Brom in the next three, with a road trip to Leicester sandwiched in between.
MID – Jack Grealish (AVL) – Absent from the first two weeks, Grealish was immediately handed a start in his season debut, and while he didn’t make any headlines, the underlying stats show that the youngster will have a fantasy impact most weeks. Last week, he got a shot on target and assisted another SOT. I would only expect more chances for him this week in a plus matchup at home to Sunderland, making him a very good OWB in salary leagues. Draft leagues should be thinking longer term with him, and he is worth a bit more than the minimum from a bidding perspective in the waiver process this week.
MID – Robbie Brady (NOR) – So much is made in fantasy Premier League about the out-of-position prospect (OOP). The chance to own a player classified as a defender but plays further up, allowing for attacking potential and clean sheet potential is like having cake AND ice cream together. Here, in a very rare occurence, I offer up a prospect that is playing Reverse OOP. He is showing that despite being designated as a midfielder while playing full back, where he is NOT rewarded for clean sheets, he is capable of being a useful player in draft leagues. He will probably never be picked in FPL leagues because of the OOP situation, but in draft leagues, he is doing quite well, outscoring the likes of Santi Cazorla and Mesut Ozil through three weeks. He takes corners and will pop in on the right free kick, always a plus in fantasy. I would add Grealish before Brady, but if you can only get Brady, give him a chance as a STB in draft leagues.
MID – Jordy Clasie (SOU) – Warning: as of this writing, Clasie is still recovering from injury and there is no guarantee he will lace his boots for Week 4. That said, with the international break following this weekend, one would expect Clasie to be back for Week 5 at the latest. If you have space to hold him for a week, you may want to get the jump on him this weekend. While so many Saints are being sold in this window, you know Clasie isn’t going anywhere, will be one of the first names on the teamsheet, and according to Ronald Koeman, will get involved in the attack. If you wait another week, you may have to spend a bit of FAAB to get him or need a high waiver claim. Get him in now and avoid those potential costs.
FWD – Max Gradel (BOU) – I had my eye on Gradel the moment the Cherries signed him, and was waiting for him to be added to the various fantasy games I play. For one reason or another, I could not make an argument for inclusion in any of my teams. I have been blessed with depth at the position. For those who have suffered at the forward spot so far, this could be a very nice addition for you. The standard thinking about AFC Bournemouth’s attacking prospects is that it begins and ends with Matt Ritchie and Callum Wilson. It took until Week 3 for the Cherries to score, but in that four-goal explosion, they showed how lucrative investment can be. While everyone is understandably cooing over Wilson’s hat trick, Gradel quietly popped up with an assist and took three shots on the day himself. I think you give him a look as a STB over the next few weeks, as the schedule gets quite tasty: home games against Leicester, Sunderland and Watford in the next five.
FWD – Salomon Rondon (WBA) – Featured last week as a new player to the game worth putting an initial claim on, Rondon is still vastly unowned in leagues and that needs to change in this waiver period. He made his first start for the Baggies last weekend in a tough matchup against the defending champs, (though defensively Chelsea are struggling to be fair) and put in a very solid shift, showing plenty of muscle to consistently win aerial challenges and has a good defensive work rate for a striker. He had a header off the bar against the Blues and I think in softer matchups. he will be a very good bet to score leading the line for the Baggies.
So that is what I have to offer at this stage of the Week, ahead of Week 4. Be sure to follow me on Twitter, @FuzzyWarbles, as I will update during the week any other prospects that may emerge or to alert you of prospects I have already promoted, who for one reason or another, suddenly has lost their appeal. We have a round of midweek Capital One Cup games on the slate, so you never know what can happen to the landscape ahead of Week 4.
Good luck to you all, my fellow hunters. May your arrows be green.
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