Draft Analysis: Abusing the Default Rankings
If there were one major change I could make in the fantasy world, pre-draft rankings would be a thing of the past and each fantasy site’s relative average draft position (ADP) would be the sole determinant of player listings in fantasy drafts.
Essentially, I want the market to decide where players are ranked.
Even with the unbelievable amount of information at our disposal, some fantasy owners are still influenced by pre-draft rankings. I urge anyone currently reading this column to be cognizant of not only what site you’re hosting your league(s) on, but also to be aware that each site’s rankings differ and vary wildly across the board.
To be clear, this column should not serve as rankings or ADP in and of itself; it’s an indicator of how to use pre-draft rankings to your advantage in drafts. Below you will find players that are ranked higher or lower than expectation, where each site has players that have generated “buzz” that has created discord across the fantasy community, and who you shouldn’t forget to scroll down the pre-draft list for.
Editor’s Note: Play against our writers in the Rotoworld Football Championship – a series of one-week fantasy contests on FanDuel with $20K in FREE prizes! Enter the Week 1 contest before it fills.
Yahoo.com
These ranks were accessed on Yahoo’s site between August 17-24th.
Players listed higher overall than expected:
29. Melvin Gordon
32. Latavius Murray
45. Peyton Manning
56. Tony Romo
82. Anquan Boldin
Strategy: Yahoo’s ranks are very quarterback-heavy through the first nine rounds, as there are a total of 14 quarterbacks in the top-100 overall. This type of pre-draft list panders towards fantasy owners who love to “wait on QB” and, in turn, capitalize on their league-mates who spend big on a replaceable position.
One interesting point here is Marshawn Lynch’s rank. It’s not that Lynch should or should not be ranked No. 1 overall, as this is a highly variable year at the top of drafts and there are 8-plus players with legitimate first overall arguments as Patrick Daughtery outlined here. It’s when you contrast Lynch with Le’Veon Bell and C.J. Anderson’s relative rank (see below), there is a decent buying opportunity for the latter two backs.
Players listed lower overall than expected:
5. Le’Veon Bell
14. C.J. Anderson
36. Jimmy Graham
69. Allen Robinson
93. Tevin Coleman
94. Charles Johnson (Wallace at 71)
112. Arian Foster
Strategy: Jimmy Graham is going from a team that ranked 4th (New Orleans) in plays per-game to a team that was 25th (Seattle) over the past two seasons. Additionally, it hurts Graham’s case that Seattle has been the most run-heavy team in the league during that two-year span (51.9%). But there is one major thing going in Jimmy Graham’s favor this year: touchdowns. Graham has converted 41 of his 102 career red zone targets (40.2%) into touchdowns and Seattle has run the 10th most plays inside of the 20-yard line from 2013-14. I’m into Graham in the early-3rd as opposed to the late-3rd/early-4th.
Charles Johnson’s ranking isn’t that low on the surface, but there’s a near two round gap between he and Mike Wallace (ranked 71 overall). Johnson has recently been called the receiver Teddy Bridgewater “trusts the most” and will line up as the Vikings’ “X” often this year.
We still don’t have a timetable for Arian Foster’s return (groin), but over the past five years when Foster is active he’s simply been the best back in fantasy football. He’s finished as an RB1 (top-12) in weekly PPR output 66.7% of the time and has provided an otherworldly 21.1 points per-game during that span. Even if Foster misses four-plus games, his weekly floor is tough to find in the bust-riddled 8th-11th rounds. I’m buying him in the 6th-7th round as my No. 3 or No. 4 running back on my roster.
Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, projections, exclusive columns, mock drafts and more, check out the Rotoworld Draft Guide.
Buzz/contentious players:
46. Ameer Abdullah
49. Martavis Bryant
51. Travis Kelce
99. Joique Bell
106. Tyler Eifert
142. Breshad Perriman
Strategy: There’s not much to contend with here. Just note that there are 53 overall spots separating SPARQ-freak (98th percentile) rookie Ameer Abdullah and the 29-year-old incumbent Joique Bell. Until Breshad Perriman (knee) starts practicing, his overall ranking and subsequent ADP will remain suppressed.
Don’t forget to scroll down for:
237. Terrance West
272. Jerick McKinnon
1999. Maxx Williams
2113. Tyler Lockett
2524. Lance Dunbar
Strategy: There aren’t many under-the-radar late round fliers going unnoticed in Yahoo’s draft applet. Lance Dunbar and Tyler Lockett are likely the two most compelling names to add to the end of your bench.
Editor’s Note: Keep reading to page 2 for a look at the ESPN and CBS rankings.
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