Correa holds lead in AL Rookie of the Year race
As we approach the homestretch of the 2015 major-league season, let’s take a look at where some of the postseason hardware appears headed at this moment. We started with the Manager of the Year awards on Monday, are looking at Rookie of the Year candidates Tuesday, and will hit the Cy Young candidates Wednesday and MVPs on Thursday.
As we’ve done in the past in this very space, these snapshots of where the individual awards races currently stand aren’t how we would necessarily vote and are instead predictions of what would happen, given the recent history of the BBWAA voting body.
Let’s run down the AL Rookie of the Year race as it appears to stand on Aug. 25, 2015.
[Players listed alphabetically within categories]
| FRONT-RUNNER |
Only 20 years old, Correa doesn’t necessarily lead AL rookies in statistical categories across the board, but he certainly looks like the best rookie out there on both sides of the ball. His stats measure up, too. He’s batting .282 with an .865 on-base plus slugging percentage — which is tops among rookies with at least 200 plate appearances. He’s also got 15 home runs, tied for best among rookies, and 11 stolen bases. The advanced defensive metric stats at shortstop aren’t as good as those of, say, Francisco Lindor, but they buttress his case at the best overall rookie out there.
Correa’s glove has been a plus at shortstop. (USATSI)
| IN THE MIX |
Francisco Lindor, Indians
He’s sneaked onto this list by hitting .352 with a .503 slugging percentage in the second half, adding to his defensive value at a premium position. He slugged only .384 in 1,880 career plate appearances in the minors, so perhaps his power surge is temporary and just for show. But they only call the award “Rookie” of the Year, so all he needs to do is keep hitting extra-base hits and making great plays at short and, if Correa falters, he could win it.
In a weak season for rookies (which this is not), a 20-year-old closer for a playoff contender with a 1.94 ERA might be in line to get the award. There are just too many players who contribute more because of their roles. He has been great, though.
Sano continues to make strides at the plate, hitting 11 homers and drawing 29 walks in 184 plate appearances. He would likely be among the front-runners if he had more playing time in the majors. He’s also been OK with limited time at third base (most of his appearances have been as a designated hitter). Thinking about having Sano and Byron Buxton for a full season must put a smile on the face of many a Twins fan. They’re going to be twin terrors for years to come.
| ON THE PERIPHERY |
He’s batting .295 with a .719 OPS and 24 stolen bases. The average and steals will get him votes. His defensive metrics in center field are not great.
He’s posted 133 strikeouts in 136 innings, the most prolific numbers in those categories for any AL rookie pitcher, along with a 3.44 ERA. He’s fading a bit in the second half, but looks good in the long term.
Lance McCullers, Astros
Just now getting back after missing most of August because of an injury, McCullers’ chances of winning the award have all but faded because of playing time. Still, he can make a big impact on the pennant race with a strong final five weeks, and might get to make a key postseason appearance (or appearances). His 3.12 ERA is best among rookies with at least 80 innings pitched.
His below-average 4.22 ERA, along with his 58 walks allowed in 106 innings, will hurt him in the voting booth. But if he keeps improving, Rodon easily could have the best expected fielding independent pitching of any AL rookie starter with at least 100 innings logged by the end of the season. The indications are that he’ll be the best rookie pitcher of this bunch in the future, even if he doesn’t do so well in ROY voting.
Having nearly just as good of a season as Osuna, it’s just that the Mariners aren’t in a pennant race, which voters will account for if the stats are close (and maybe if they’re not that close). Smith strikes out more per inning than Osuna (walks more too), but strands fewer baserunners. He has one fewer save. His xFIP is better than that of Osuna, and his line-drive rate is better. But it’s all close.
Devon Travis, Blue Jays
He got off to a hot start, and the stats he accumulated have staying power (despite a shoulder injury that’s kept him sidelined since the end of July). Going by Fangraphs’ wins above replacement, he’s still the second-most productive player (tied with McCullers) to Correa. The thing is, he’s still hurt (he’s set to see a specialist in Texas soon) and he’s running out of time. As we noted two weeks ago, in 239 plate appearances he has batted .304/.361/.498, while the average second baseman this season has a line of .262/.318/.383.
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