Chase Watch: Setting up for a relatively drama-free Richmond?
The 2015 Chase may have 15 drivers locked in when the green flag drops at Richmond on September 12.
Thanks to a relatively drama-free event at Bristol on Saturday night, all but one Chase spot could be decided when the series races for the final time in the regular season. While some drivers currently in the Chase had a much better night than others, if every driver maintains his position and points gap at Darlington on September 6 and a driver who has won before in 2015 wins again, Clint Bowyer will be the only nervous driver (currently in the Chase) in Richmond.
How so? 11 drivers within the top 30 in the points standings have won races. They’re locked in the Chase as long as they stay in the top 30. That leaves five spots – as of now – for drivers who haven’t won races. Let’s take a look at the standings.
12. Jamie McMurray (76 points ahead of Aric Almirola): All McMurray has to do is start the race at Darlington. OK, it’s a bit more complicated than that, but after finishing 11th at Bristol, he just needs to avoid catastophe while Almirola doesn’t win to clinch a spot in the Chase. That seems feasible, right?
13. Ryan Newman (+63 on Almirola): Newman finished 10th. His recipe for 2014 that got him to the final round of the Chase seems to be working again in 2015. Just keep on cooking, Newman.
14. Paul Menard: (+54 on Almirola): Paul Menard in the Chase! Yes, this is a legit possibility. Without laps led, he just has to finish less than six spots behind Almirola at Darlington (with a repeat winner or a winner from the drivers currently inside the Chase) to clinch a spot in the Chase when Richmond comes around. And a Chase berth means Menard will have to do interviews for the first time in what seems like forever.
15. Jeff Gordon: (+52 on Almirola): Gordon had a horrible night with his gorgeous rainbow car and made two late green flag pit stops. Well, relatively speaking given that the first green flag stop happened when he was in the top five. He finished 20th and just has to finish ahead of Almirola with close to the same parenthetical circumstances as Menard to lock in at Richmond.
16. Clint Bowyer (+35 on Almirola): If Bowyer doesn’t move to 15th without a new winner at Atlanta, he’s going to be the driver on the bubble. He can lessen the drama if he can finish 14 spots ahead of Almirola at Darlington even if he doesn’t pass Gordon in the standings. Why? Well, if that happens, the only way Bowyer gets knocked out of the Chase is if a driver outside the tentative Chase standings at Richmond wins. And given the way this season has gone, it seems highly unlikely.
Currently out of the Chase:
17. Almirola: He finished 17th, which isn’t terrible. But it’s not optimal given that Bowyer finished fifth and expanded his lead by 12 points.
18. Kasey Kahne (-37 to Bowyer): Kahne finished 16th. He won last year on Labor Day weekend in Atlanta. He may need to do it again at Darlington to get in.
19. Greg Biffle (-83 to Bowyer): Just win, baby.
20. Austin Dillon (-91 to Bowyer): Read the Biffle line.
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
