No. 5 Baylor: Can the Bears be even better with a first-year starter at QB?

Dr. Saturday will unveil its preseason Top 25 team-by-team during the next 25 days. This list is based on returning starters, schedule and prospects. However, we all know that once the games begin, things can change very quickly. Still, we thought we’d give our best guess heading into the 2015 season.

No. 5 Baylor

2014 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big 12

Returning starters: 9 offense, 9 defense

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2015 Outlook:

Baylor won 11 games in 2014, but the team and its fans probably don’t look back on the season all that fondly.

It could have been so much more if not for a lackluster performance in a Week 6 loss to an average West Virginia team.

You know how it went down by now. With a win at WVU, the Bears would have been the Big 12 champs and could have competed for their first national title.

But that didn’t happen. Baylor and TCU (who the Bears beat 61-58) each finished the regular season with identical 11-1 (8-1 Big 12) regular season records and were the conference’s co-champions, regardless of head-to-head results. Neither was selected for the four-team playoff and the Bears dropped a 42-41 heartbreaker to Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl.

All of that has left a bad taste in the Bears’ mouths headed into the 2015 campaign, where expectations are sky-high – our Top 5 ranking is a perfect example of that.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic with an abundance of talent on both sides of the ball.

Quarterback Bryce Petty is off to the NFL, but in steps junior Seth Russell to take the reins of Art Briles’ high-powered offense. He has an absurd collection of talent to connect with at wideout led by junior Corey Coleman (64 catches, 1,119 yards, 11 TDs) and sophomore KD Cannon (58 catches, 1,030 yards, 8 TDs). Shock Linwood (1,252 yards, 16 TDs) also returns at running back, as do six returning offensive linemen with starting experience.

Oh, and Baylor also has a 6-foot-7, 400-pound tight end named LaQuan McGowan. You may have heard of him.

The offense that averaged 48.2 points per game should pick up right where it left off.

On the other side of the ball, the biggest boost Baylor received in the offseason was defensive end Shawn Oakman’s decision to come back for another season. The 6-foot-9, 275-pound Oakman is coming off an All-American campaign that featured 51 tackles, 19.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks. He and the rest of the Bears starting defensive line are back, as are an experienced group of linebackers.

The Bears’ secondary was undoubtedly a weakness in 2014 and allowed way too many deep passes. The entire starting unit is back in 2014 and just by experience alone, you’d expect improvement.

Still, Baylor hasn’t exactly been known for its defense, but if it wants to get over the hump and into the College Football Playoff, it has to be more consistent. Allowing close to 40 points per game down the stretch isn’t going to cut it – especially with TCU looking like a team to fear.

Briles and company are going to preach “one game at a time” to the team all season, but you know the Nov. 27 trip to Fort Worth is already circled on the calendar. Provided neither team slips up against inferior competition this time around, that game has a high likelihood of deciding the Big 12 and impacting College Football Playoff seeding.

Player to watch: Seth Russell, QB

Year in and year out, there aren’t many programs that produce consistently great quarterback play like Baylor. He has been a backup to Bryce Petty for the past two years, and as a redshirt junior, he knows Art Briles’ offense like the back of his hand. Now it’s time to put that knowledge and experience to use.

Russell has been good, but not great, in relief of Petty. He’s completed 74-of-128 (57.8 percent) of his passes for 11 touchdowns and four interceptions in parts of 15 games for the Bears. At 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, he has the size and arm strength to stretch the field, but that completion percentage needs to be better in his first year as starter.

Russell has plenty of weapons to work with and three easy early-season games (SMU, Lamar, Rice) to get any kinks worked out before the Big 12 slate begins. And above all else, consistency will be key.

Breakout player: Devin Chafin, RB

Shock Linwood is a proven commodity for the Bears at running back, but he shouldered a significant load in 2014 with 251 carries — 150 more than anyone else on the team. If Briles wants to spread out the carries a bit more in 2015, Chafin looks to be a guy who could provide a solid 1-2 punch with Linwood.

Chafin rushed for 383 yards and eight touchdowns last year despite being limited by injuries that kept him out of four games. If healthy, Chafin has the size (6-0, 225) and speed to provide a nice boost for the Baylor offense as the perfect complement to the 5-foot-9, 195-pound Linwood.

Miss one of our Top 25? No. 6 Auburn, No. 7 Michigan State, No. 8 Florida State, No. 9 Clemson, No. 10 Oregon, No. 11 Georgia, No. 12 Notre Dame, No. 13 UCLA, No. 14 LSU, No. 15 Georgia Tech, No. 16 Arkansas, No. 17 Ole Miss, No. 18 Arizona State, No. 19 Oklahoma, No. 20 Arizona, No. 21 Tennessee, No. 22 Missouri, No. 23 Stanford, No. 24 Boise State, No. 25 Wisconsin.