August 21 MLB DFS Picks: Get Your Beef Welly On – SportsGrid
August 21 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
It’s another exciting night in MLB DFS as both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering six figure prize pools! Drew Dinkmeyer of the DailyRoto Daily Fantasy Rundown shares some picks and analysis to help get you started with your lineups.
Welington Castillo (ARZ) – Castillo has been exceptional against LHP in his career (.374 wOBA, .191 ISO, and 36.2 percent hard hit rate) and he faces a below average LHP in an elite hitting environment. David Holmberg has allowed a .369 wOBA, 2.18 HR/9, and 35.1 percent hard hit rate to RHBs as a big leaguer and ZiPS projection system calls for a .359 wOBA and .194 ISO allowed. Castillo gets a premier lineup spot behind Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock who are on base machines against LHP. The catcher position is deeper than usual on Friday so price point matters with Castillo, but anywhere he’s priced like an average hitter, I’m investing.
Chris Sale (CHW) – Sale faces a Mariners’ offense that ranks 13th in wRC+ against LHP with a K Rate just above the league average (21.2 percent against LHP). On paper, this looks like a neutral matchup for Sale, but when you take into account the stark park shift in his favor (US Cellular inflates scoring 20-25 percent above the league average, SAFECO deflates it around 20 percent below the league average) and the likelihood that the Mariners have outperformed baseline projections against LHP this season (Cruz -.471 wOBA, Gutierrez -.424 wOBA, Seager – .340 wOBA), there is reason to believe this is the best matchup Sale could get while staying in the American League. Our model projects this Mariners offense as slightly below league average against LHP with an above average K Rate. Sale, in many ways, is Clayton Kershaw without the extraordinary Kershaw price tag. Our model views him as the premier number one starter on a slate filled with high end pitching.
Like what you see? We go way more in-depth at DailyRoto.com, with advice from Drew Dinkmeyer, Mike Leone, and others, that produced three Millionaire Maker winners in 2014
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