Rotoworld Roundup: The Shy-Away Top 40
We’ve seen each team play a preseason game or two while closely monitoring camp reports on every skill-position player in the NFL. The recommendations in this column are inherently negative (see title), but based on the facts we’ve gleaned, represent an informed and reasoned projection.
This isn’t a list of overvalued players, necessarily, or projected busts. Those can be found in the 2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. This is a list of players I think you should consider approaching with extreme caution or even scratching off your cheatsheets based on the way they’re currently priced in the fantasy community. They’re guys I think you might want to consider drafting around.
1. LeSean McCoy
Let’s forgive McCoy for his disappointing 2014 for a moment. McCoy is transitioning from an Eagles team that last year led the NFL in play volume to a Bills offense overseen by Greg Roman, whose 2011-2014 49ers units ranked 24th, 30th, 31st, and 20th in offensive plays. Although Roman and Rex Ryan‘s Ground-N-Pound backgrounds might seemingly bode well for McCoy’s carry total, Shady’s usage is actually likely to decline based on the molasses-slow pace of Roman’s scheme. Roman also showed an aversion to funneling his tailbacks targets in San Francisco; Frank Gore entered Roman’s tenure averaging nearly four receptions per game from 2006 to 2010. On Roman’s watch, Gore averaged just over one catch per game.
Whether it be due to a toe injury or physical decline, McCoy showed symptoms of breakdown last season. He still juked well laterally, but consistently failed to beat defenders to the edge, and has never been a physical tackle breaker inside. McCoy’s yards-per-carry average dipped by nearly a full yard, while he lost red-zone work to Chris Polk and even diminutive Darren Sproles late in the season. On a quarterback-less Bills team, McCoy’s touchdowns are unlikely to jump significantly, and his rushing attempts and receptions project to disappoint as well.
McCoy battled recurring toe problems early in camp. After Tuesday’s hamstring strain, it might be time to scratch McCoy off your cheatsheet altogether.
2. Victor Cruz
This one’s simple. I’m shying away from Cruz with a singular datapoint in mind: A severe injury he suffered in Week 6 last season called a ruptured patellar tendon. These are all the NFL players I could come up with that have suffered ruptured patellar tendons in recent years:
Bucs RB Cadillac Williams, Eagles FS Nate Allen, Colts WR Austin Collie, Eagles RB Correll Buckhalter, Falcons OT Sam Baker, Vikings WR Greg Childs, Lions DE Jason Jones, Cowboys RB Ryan Williams, Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne, Browns CB Gary Baxter, Titans LB Gerald McRath, Bucs OG Davin Joseph.
Not many success stories there.
Camp reports have been positive on Cruz, but that was expected. I think the Giants would do well to get Cruz back as a low-volume possession receiver. I’m betting against Cruz returning as a fantasy asset, probably for the rest of his career.
At surface level, Sankey’s eighth-/ninth-round Average Draft Position seems reasonable-bordering-on stealing as a theoretical all-purpose back who’s projected to open the season as a starter. I try to aim a bit higher than Sankey with my middle-round picks, though. Sankey best projects as a committee back on a bad team that will frequently play offense in catch-up mode, preventing any of their individual rushers from piling up a high volume of carries.
And Sankey isn’t as versatile as he’s commonly billed. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has locked in Dexter McCluster as Tennessee’s designated passing-down specialist after Sankey graded out 53rd among 57 qualified backs in PFF’s 2014 pass-protection charts. Combined with McCluster’s specialized role, Sankey’s inability to pick up the blitz will cost him playing time on the majority of passing downs.
Then there’s the question of Sankey’s early-down role, which is threatened by between-the-tackles grinders David Cobb and Antonio Andrews. Neither Cobb nor Andrews offers flash or long speed, but it’s reasonable to believe at least one could emerge as a superior option to carry the mail on first and second down. Cobb certainly looked better than Sankey in Tennessee’s preseason opener. Sankey is a hesitant, often indecisive runner who averaged 3.48 yards per carry over the Titans’ final 12 games as a rookie.
Sankey is not yet 23 years old, and it’s within the realm of possibility that he’ll get better and take a step forward in his second year. But in all likelihood, Sankey is going to be a rotational back in a low-scoring offense. There are stronger swings in the seventh through ninth rounds of drafts.
Coachspeak has an impact. It definitely drives ADP. And when coach Bruce Arians announced a few weeks ago that Ellington would handle 20 touches a game this year, Ellington’s ADP was all but solidified. He doesn’t get past the fourth round in drafts.
Arians’ coachspeak is believable in that Ellington averaged 22 touches a game before hitting I.R. in Week 13 of last season. Arians’ coachspeak is unbelievable in that Ellington collapsed beneath that unsustainable workload, his YPC average dipping by more than two full yards from the season prior while picking up foot, sports hernia, and hip injuries over the course of the year. Considering the timing of Ellington’s preseason foot injury, he essentially broke down before the season even began. Arians’ coachspeak is also unbelievable in that the Cardinals invested a third-round pick into David Johnson — a bigger, more athletic version of Ellington — before signing Chris Johnson, another similarly-skilled back.
The team’s actions speak loudly here, and on Tuesday Arians formally opened the Cardinals’ starting running back job to competition.
This season, algorithm-based Sports Injury Predictor forecasts Ellington as the NFL’s most-likely running back to get injured, setting Ellington’s chances of missing time at 90%. Ellington is an ineffective between-the-tackles runner, and the Cardinals regularly pulled him out of the game in red-zone situations last season. Per Arians, FB/RB Robert Hughes will serve as Arizona’s short-yardage back in 2015.
Ellington proponents chalk up his diminished 2014 effectiveness to the injuries, but Ellington remains as high an injury risk as any back in football. Ellington is best suited to serve as a committee member, and the Cardinals’ running back moves suggest they agree. Not a touchdown scorer and now certain to lose volume, Ellington is a player to avoid where he’s currently valued by the community.
5. Zach Ertz
Ertz came out of Stanford as an NFL-ready pass catcher. He took a step forward as a potential three-down player in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 6 overall run-blocking tight end among 67 qualifiers. Ertz struggled in pass protection, however, and played only 50.2% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps. Starter Brent Celek played nearly 70% of the snaps and graded out as PFF’s No. 2 overall run-blocking tight end.
Ertz clearly has a higher ceiling, but Celek is preferred by the coaching staff on a team that utilizes three-receiver sets as its base formation. The Eagles have been running a three-receiver offense throughout training camp. Chip Kelly uses two tight ends in some packages, but Philadelphia is predominately a one-tight end team. Ertz would effectively have to “beat out” Celek to become a near-full-time player. That’s not happening, especially after Ertz underwent groin surgery on August 14.
I absolutely believe Ertz would take off if Celek got hurt. I also believe there’s a chance Kelly eventually embraces two-tight end sets as a big part of his offense, with Ertz and Celek on the field together and Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor at wideout. I’m leaving the door for Ertz to become a every-week fantasy starter later this year.
But those are a lot of “ifs.” Ertz needs to catch breaks to go from a borderline TE1 to a truly useful one. There are tight ends in similar situations available later in drafts; talented tight ends who could “hit” if the right scenario unfolds. I’m more willing to gamble a deeper double-digit-round selection on that happening for Tyler Eifert, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, or Kyle Rudolph than to pay the price for Ertz at his ninth-/tenth-round ADP slot.
6. Carlos Hyde
Although there are rare exceptions to this principle, you generally don’t want to draft running backs on bad teams. The 49ers’ Vegas Win Total dipped to 6.5 even before they lost Aldon Smith, very arguably the best player left on their roster. From the coaching staff on down, San Francisco’s offseason losses were staggering and are likely to prove devastating. To surprise retirements, free agency, injuries, and personality conflicts, this team lost an extraordinary amount of talent and leadership. The 49ers are a dysfunctional organization in utter disarray.
Hyde is two-down back on a team that may spend most of 2015 playing from behind, which could result in extended playing time for passing-game specialists Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter. How good is Hyde, really? His athletic profile is similar to Shonn Greene, and Hyde was able to wrest a mere six touches per game from 31-year-old Frank Gore as a rookie. If the 49ers’ defense took the worst of the offseason losses, the offensive line wasn’t far behind. Gone to Arizona, LG Mike Iupati was Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 run-blocking guard last season, behind only Baltimore’s Marshal Yanda. “Retired” RT Anthony Davis was a top-13 run-blocking tackle among 84 qualifiers. Starting C Daniel Kilgore is recovering from ankle and fibula surgeries, and won’t be ready for Week 1.
Even if Hyde is good — and it’s worth wondering whether he is — his situation has frustration written all over it. In fantasy drafts, let another owner take the leap of faith on Hyde. He may need to be a genuinely transcendent talent to overcome all the deficiences around him.
7. Joique Bell
Name any potential red flag on a fantasy back and Bell’s got it. 29 years old, Bell is at or near the age where running backs tend to fall off career cliffs. Bell has been ineffective, averaging 3.88 yards per carry the past two years. Bell has medical flags; he underwent a knee surgery last offseason before having knee and Achilles’ operations this past winter and being unavailable for Lions camp to this point. Bell has major competition in the form of playmaking second-round pick Ameer Abdullah, in addition to passing-game specialist Theo Riddick and impressive UDFA Zach Zenner. Bell is in danger of quickly becoming an old, banged-up, and inefficient member of a possible three-man committee.
Bell is still the favorite for goal-line carries in a potent Lions offense, and the TDs alone could propel him toward top-24 fantasy value. But Bell’s upside has been zapped, and Lions observers are already calling for the team to start Abdullah.
Bell should be avoided in favor of these higher-ceiling backs being drafted near or behind him: Chris Ivory, Tevin Coleman, LeGarrette Blount, Abdullah, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen.
8. Roddy White
Although there were bumps in the road, White wound up paying fantasy dividends in 2014, posting an 80-921-7 receiving line despite missing two games. The counting numbers look good on paper, but White’s game is fading. White ranked 103rd of 110 qualified wide receivers in PFF’s yards after catch per reception statistic (2.3), while nagging injuries haunted him for a second straight season. Beat writers have hinted White is getting outplayed by Leonard Hankerson at Falcons camp.
At the beginning of camp, White revealed he is experiencing recurring issues in his left knee. He needed the knee drained before June minicamp, and expects it to be drained again during the season. “My cartilage in my knee is not smooth,” White admitted. “It’s kind of rippled. You can elect to have surgery, but I just decided not to because I’m not a surgery guy. I just don’t want to do it. They gave me the option two years ago to have surgery. They said they would have to slice off the top of my cartilage, and I was like, ‘I don’t want to do that.'”
The age cliff can be devastating for old wide receivers. White seems primed to fall right off of it.
Floyd was Arizona’s least-productive receiver in Carson Palmer‘s six 2014 starts, posting a 16-game pace line of 45-693-5 on 80 targets. Larry Fitzgerald‘s pace was 85-1,288-5 on 109 targets in Palmer’s starts, while John Brown‘s was 53-840-8 on 104 targets. The Cardinals made no real effort to push the ball Floyd’s way, instead employing him as a high-volatility deep threat whose targets were sent far downfield and difficult to catch. In the offseason, there were rumors the Cards dangled Floyd in trade talks.
While Fitzgerald got healthy and Brown continued to hone his close bond with Palmer, Floyd suffered a major hand injury in the first week of training camp, dislocating three fingers so severely that they broke through the skin on his palm. Media reports only have Floyd missing 3-5 weeks, but coach Bruce Arians deemed the injury “unique” with no real precedent from which to work when forecasting a return timetable. Outside medical opinions envision Floyd as doubtful for Week 1.
When Floyd does return, it’s more than a little bit conceivable that Brown will have supplanted him for good on the depth chart. As Floyd will end up losing so much practice time, it’s unlikely his role and the way the Cardinals use him will change.
Don’t bet on Floyd becoming a reliable WR3 this season, let alone a WR2. He’ll likely remain a volatile, unreliable WR3/4 option. Brown is a far-better bet to break out.
10. Marques Colston
Lots of offseason fantasy articles have pegged Colston as a value pick in a Saints offense that lost 335 passing-game targets from last year. The opportunity for a step forward looks to be there. I’m just not sure the opportunity automatically goes to Colston. The Saints are intrigued by a number of younger wideouts on their roster and showed signs of souring on Colston last year. The only reason Colston is back with the Saints is because he agreed to a whopping $3.2 million pay cut. As another part of the reduction, Colston sliced his 2016 salary from $7.7 million to $3.2 million.
Colston’s role was reduced by Sean Payton last year. Dropping eight passes, Colston also saw the second fewest targets of his career despite playing all 16 games and in an offense that led the NFC in pass attempts while dealing with injuries to Brandin Cooks, Jimmy Graham, and pass-catching specialist Pierre Thomas. It’s not a stretch to say Colston was one of the least effective receivers in the NFL. He ranked 100th among 110 qualifiers in PFF’s overall wideout grades, also blocking poorly. At Saints camp, Cooks, Brandon Coleman, Nick Toon, and Willie Snead are on the rise. Payton has openly compared Coleman to Colston in terms of skill set, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Coleman soon begins eating into Colston’s snaps.
Colston is a declining, 32-year-old role player with a low-end WR3 ceiling. As Colston’s ADP begins to creep into round nine, be sure to aim higher with your single-digit-round picks.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
