Against the Spread: NFL Wins: Over/Under
Friday, August 14, 2015
Jeff Baldwin (@JeffBaldwin4) and Jeremy Wardwell (@jdwardwell5) are picking against the spread all season long in Rotoworld’s Season Pass, and it’s time for their NFL team Over/Unders. Jeremy and Jeff weigh in on team win totals and related team expectations for the upcoming season.
Indianapolis – Over/Under 10.5 wins
Jeff: The Colts head into this season after winning their second straight AFC South division title after another impressive eleven win season. QB Andrew Luck led them to the AFC Championship game only to be dismantled once again by the eventual Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. During the offseason, the Colts were able to sign WR Andre Johnson and RB Frank Gore which will help this offense to be even more potent. Wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks are no longer on the team. The Colts drafted wide receiver Phillip Dorsett who will compete with WR Donte Moncrief for the number three wideout spot. WR T.Y. Hilton will team up with WR Andre Johnson as the Colts will once again have one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. This offense is clearly poised to be better this year which is scary for the rest of the league. The biggest question mark similar to year’s will be the defense. Can this unit step up and play at a higher level and get the team to a Super Bowl? That remains to be seen. I see a similar type season for the Colts this year as they will clearly benefit playing in a weak division. The Texans losing RB Arian Foster for at least the beginning part of the season will only help the Colts coast to another division title. There is room for this team to get better on both sides of the ball as their win total could easily increase by a game or so. Given the fact that the Colts’ overall strength of schedule is deemed one of the easiest in the NFL as their opponents’ winning percentage is a lowly .417 makes them a solid over selection. The Colts have been a model of consistency over the last three years during the regular season as they have finished with exactly eleven wins each season. Look for the Colts to finish this season with 11-12 wins. Take OVER 10.5 wins.
Jeremy: The Indianapolis Colts have taken one step further in the playoffs each of the last three years, getting knocked off by the eventual Super Bowl Champion Patriots in last year’s AFC title game. This year, I expect them to make it at least that far again. Andrew Luck (Ranked the #2 QB by Rotoworld) has gotten better each season and now has more talent surrounding him than at any other point in his career. The Colts brought in Andre Johnson and drafted Phillip Dorsett to complement T.Y. Hilton in what will be one of the best receiving corps in league. In the backfield, the Trent Richardson era finally came to an end with the arrival of Frank Gore. Despite his age, Gore is in line to have a strong season as he won’t be called upon to carry as heavy a load as he did in San Francisco with the other offensive weapons around him. Defensively, Indy improved with the signings of DL Kendall Langford and LB Trent Cole who will help shore up an often porous front seven that gave up over 113 rushing yards per game. The Colts will play one of the easiest schedules in the league this season and could be 8-1 before their bye in Week 10. Look for the Colts to put up even more impressive offensive numbers this year and have a defense that while not spectacular will hold teams in check more than last year. I like the Colts at 13-3 this season with an outside shot at 15 wins. Take OVER 10.5 wins.
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Cincinnati – Over/Under 8.5 wins
Jeff: The Bengals once again fell short in the playoffs as they were defeated by the Colts in the Wildcard round. The Bengals managed to finish the season with ten wins which was an impressive feat given how many of their key players were injured during the year. WR A.J. Green suffered a toe injury which cost him some games and limited him in others. TE Tyler Eifert went down in Week 1 after suffering an elbow dislocation which forced him to miss the entire season. RB Giovani Bernard also went down which forced him to miss some time. RB Jeremy Hill took full advantage of his opportunity as the starter as he led the NFL in rushing yards and yards per carry over the final nine games of the season. Hill is the clear starter when the 2015 season opens up as Bernard will be the passing down back moving forward. This offense averaged close to 23 points/game last season despite all their injuries. Look for that number to increase this year with everyone healthy. QB Andy Dalton will have his share of weapons to choose from as he needs to lead to this team back to the playoffs and more importantly get a much needed playoff win. This team can’t afford another one and done in the playoffs. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals will need to be better this year in both stopping the run and limiting the pass after being ranked in both categories towards the bottom half of the league. Some positive news out of camp is how good DT Geno Atkins has looked. Atkins clearly wasn’t the same player last year after he tore his ACL in Week 9 of the 2013 season. If Atkins can perform up to his capability it will help this defense out tremendously in all facets. The Bengals haven’t finished with fewer than 9 wins in the last four seasons. This is a team that plays well in the regular season only to disappoint in the playoffs. I think this team will once again be in contention to win this division as they’ll finish the season with 9-10 wins. Take OVER 8.5 wins.
Minnesota – Over/Under 7.5 wins
Jeff: The Vikings finished the 2014 season with seven wins. They capped off the season playing competitive football as they’ll look to build off that momentum heading into the 2015 season. The Vikings get a huge boost on the offensive side of the ball as RB Adrian Peterson returns after being suspended a year ago. I think he heads into this season very motivated, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he produces at a high level despite his age and being away from football for a year. QB Teddy Bridgewater struggled early on after taking over as the starting quarterback in Week 3 after QB Matt Cassel went down with an injury, but played better as the season progressed. I think Bridgewater will continue to get better and wind up being a solid quarterback for years to come in this league. The Vikings made a trade for WR Mike Wallace which adds another solid weapon to this offense. Wallace will team up with WR Charles Johnson as the starting receivers. Tight end Kyle Rudolph is another weapon at Bridgewater’s disposal, but the main issue here is whether he can finally stay healthy. The Vikings’ offense averaged 20.3 points/game last season. Look for them to exceed that number this season with the return of Peterson and addition of Wallace. As for the defensive side of the ball, this unit has room to grow as they have a nice, young nucleus of players. The Vikings used their first three picks in the draft on defensive players which isn’t a surprise given Mike Zimmer‘s defensive-minded approach. The Vikings’ total here is 7.5 which is a number they can exceed. They need to be one win better than last season so with the return of RB Adrian Peterson there’s no reason why this won’t happen. Look for the Vikings to finish the 2015 season with eight wins as this franchise will continue to move in the right direction. Take OVER 7.5 wins.
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