Weekly Picks: PL Prediction WK 2
Every Thursday I will be previewing the Premier League fixture list, highlighting the relevant (as I see them) stats, trends and form lines. My focus will be the official PremierLeague.com game, but it’s all about plotting where the goals, assists and clean sheets are going to happen. So there is plenty to be adopted and adapted for whatever format you play.
As the season progresses I will also be applying my own ‘contrarian’ stance on FL matters, trying to squeeze an advantage by latching onto a players, stats or trends that the general market might not pick up. You are free to ignore this, of course. But if nothing else it will prompt a bit of light entertainment and ‘pub talk’…
Now, to business…
The opening weekend was predictably unpredictable, of course. And has left a couple of clubs teetering on the edge of an early crisis. Yes, Arsene… Jose… I’m talking to you. But as all us FL managers know, we are only ever one weekend away from turning it all round and covering ourselves in glory. So here’s where I see it happening this week. Starting at Aston Villa on Friday. Yes, folks, that’s Friday…
Friday fixture:
19.45 Aston Villa v Manchester United
Both won their opening fixture 1-0, with Villa’s new striker Rudy Gestede getting off the mark. United are yet to score (Tottenham’s Kyle Walker obliging last week). No team has lost more times to United in the PL era (34) the last win at Villa Park almost exactly two decades ago. United looked less than slick last week, with just one shot on target. Will be closer than history suggests.
Score Prediction: Both to stay unbeaten. 1-1
MVP Prediction: Matteo Damian looks very tidy and United defender to own. But Wayne Rooney has scored ore goals v Villa than against any other team (13).
Saturday fixtures:
12.45 Southampton v Everton
The loss of Leighton Baines is a ‘disaster’ according to Roberto Martinez, overshadowing the John Stones saga. Kevin Mirallas is also now doubtful, with a 75% fit Gerard Deufoleu standing by. Southampton’s opening day draw at Newcastle might not be the disappointment it looked at first glance, but anything less than a win here will make for a poor start.
Score Prediction: More problems for Martinez and Everton. 2-0
MVP Prediction: Graziano Pelle is already off the mark and looks sharper than last season.
15.00 Sunderland v Norwich
After their shocker at Leicester on opening weekend, this could be seen as either be the perfect match for Sunderland to put things right. Or they are 90 minutes away from an early crisis. Likewise, Norwich can wipe last week’s slate clean, or start looking at a long hard season. Both have goals in them – at both ends.
Score Prediction: I fancy goals. 2-2
MVP Prediction: Jermaine’s Lens and Defoe looked a class apart for Sunderland last week. There’s goals here for the shorter one.
15.00 Swansea v Newcastle
Swansea pulled another opening day stunner at Chelsea to rival the one at Man United last season. They look bigger, stronger, slicker and well capable of winning their first home match. Visitors Newcastle will be encouraged by their opening draw with Southampton, but this looks a long trip home.
Score Prediction: A solid start for a Swansea team quietly developing. 2-1
MVP Prediction: A goal and 6pts last week makes Bafetimbi Gomis the man to watch again this week.
15.00 Tottenham v Stoke
Both teams could’ve picked up a point in the opening weekend, but neither have anything to show. Another blank weekend would make it a bad start which might add a bit of tension. Stoke won both meetings last season but suspect they would be happy just to get off the mark here.
Score Prediction: Neither manager will relish another pointless weekend. 1-1
MVP Prediction: Christian Eriksen looked the man most likely v Man United. Should get more room.
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15.00 Watford v West Brom
Watford looked a real handful at Everton in GW 1 and will cause problems to those with even bigger hands than Martinez’s men. They scored goals from all over the pitch last season and will fancy their chance against a West Brom bruised from an opening day mauling. Plenty of team will come up second best v Man City but The Baggies need a reaction.
Score Prediction: Watford fans will see plenty of goals this season. I reckon another four more. 2-2
MVP Prediction: An assit last week and Troy Deeney can go one better.
15.00 West Ham v Leicester
Doubt these two will stay in the top four for very long, but no harm in enjoying while they can. West Ham got off to a flyer last season too but look better equipped to sustain a Top 8 challenge beyond Christmas. Leicester have won 25 PL points since April 1st – more than any other team – and only Yaya Toure (16) topped midfielders Mahrez and Albrighton’s 15pt hauls last weekend.
Score Prediction: 1-1
MVP Prediction: Only 2.5% benefitted from Marc Albrighton’s goal and double assist last week. Suggest one of two more do this week.
Sunday Fixtures
13.30 Crystal Palace v Arsenal
Arsenal have gone from many people’s quiet PL fancies to the brink of a crisis in the space of a week. They have beaten Palace in their last five meetings, but the gap is closing. Both matches ended 2-1 last season, 2-0 the season before. Suspect the gap will be closer still come Sunday.
Score Prediction: At this stage, both will settle for a share of the spoils. 1-1
MVP Prediction: No Arsenal player registered more than 2pts last week, so Jason Puncheon is the pick.
16.00 Man City v Chelsea
Talk of title deciders are premature, but this does give City the chance to put five points between them and Chelsea – and that doesn’t happen all that often. Aguero could start but Courtois wont and even more worrying for Jose will be right-back Ivanovic’s horror show v Swansea’s Montero last week. He’ll have Raheem Sterling to deal with (or not) this time.
Score Prediction: Chelsea at least a draw, City will take one. 1-1
MVP Prediction: David Silva’s subtlety is the order of the day here.
Monday Fixture
20.00 Liverpool v Bournemouth
Liverpool look a different beast from last season (no bad thing, I hear you say). Brendan’s lot launched 28 long balls to welcome Christian Benteke to the team, compared to an average of 16 per match last term. They only managed four shots though. Bournemouth learned a harsh lesson in taking your chances last week – or at least we hope they did…
Score Prediction: Tough GM 2 for the new boys. 2-0
MVP Prediction: Bournemouth players will have never seen anything like Phillipe Coutinho before.
Seven out of ten draws as I see it. But more importantly 24 goals, assists and just a couple of clean sheets to shoot for. Best of British luck to you all!
This feature will develop as the season unfolds. As form lines appear, trends emerge and players sink or swim. I will be tracking all such developments, plus offering my own ‘contrarian’ stance on FL matters.
Until next time.
Matt Nesbitt’s unspectacular but joyful playing career has given way to a much more successful but miserable one writing about football and providing betting advice. Email: Matt Nesbitt
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