NFL Over/Under: Addressing fantasy dilemmas Charles, Foster, White and Ertz – Yahoo Sports (blog)
Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don’t, and you’re painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here’s our view on 10 intriguing rookie over/unders for the upcoming season.
[Yahoo Sports Fantasy Football is back: Sign up for a league today!]
Jamaal Charles, who KC coaches want to rest more often to ensure season-long health, touches per game this fall 15.5.
Brad – UNDER. The JC of KC was hardly a bellcow last season netting 16.4 grips per game. Due to his svelte frame, advancing age and accumulated touches, OC Doug Pederson has made it clear Knile Davis will help ease the burden. Charles has tallied at least 5.5 yards per touch every year he’s been in the league, meaning he’ll continue to be lethal in moderate doses. However, he’s likely a 240-245 total touch rusher this year. The anticipated reduction is precisely why I have him ranked behind AP, Lacy, Lynch and Le’Veon, though he’s undoubtedly still worth a Round 1 pick.
Andy – OVER. C’mon. This is silly. An OC talks about, “giving a guy like Knile Davis some reps,” and we suddenly think Charles is looking at … what? Twelve carries, maybe 2-3 catches? Get outta here. This is ridiculous. Davis is a fumbly back who’s averaged 3.5 YPC in consecutive seasons; Charles is among the most productive rushers in NFL history, averaging 5.5 YPC for his career (5.0 last season). These two aren’t close at all in terms of talent. For all the fretting about his frame, Charles routinely gives us 15 or 16 games per season, and he’s reached double-digit TDs in back-to-back years. He’s also perfectly healthy these days — in fact, that was the point of the story which supplied the quote that Brad is using to freak you out.
Scott – I shade UNDER here. We saw a hint of this workload down the stretch in 2014, which makes me suspect it’s been on Andy Reid’s mind all spring and summer. Nonetheless, Charles remains parked in the top half of my first round; he doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to achieve fantasy relevance.
[Preseason rankings: See how our experts stack each position]
There’s some dispute between fantasy ‘experts’ whether Russell Wilson is deserving of a top-five draft rank among QBs. Doubters believe his 800-plus rushing yards from ’14 are unsustainable. Fearlessly forecast Mr. Ciara’s line this fall (pass yards, rush yards, total TDs, INTs).
Andy – Final answer: 3685 passing yards, 26 pass TDs, 590 rushing yards, 4 rush TDs, 7 INTs. That’s a great year, kids.
Dalton – 3650 passing yards, 29 pass TDs, 625 rushing yards, four rush TDs, nine INTs. He’ll be a top-five fantasy QB.
Scott – Call it 3577 passing yards, 27 TDs; 589 rushing yards, four rushing TDs; 11 picks; 25 interviews ending with “go Hawks.” He’s definitely in my Top 5.
Scratch-off ticket showdown. What wide receiver going after pick No. 140 in average drafts conducted at Fantasy Football Calculator cashes biggest for late-round gamblers: Rueben Randle, Stevie Johnson, Eddie Royal or Kenny Stills?
Dalton – ROYAL. I actually have all four of these wide receivers ranked within six spots of one another, so this is a close call. I’ll go with Royal, who sure looks like he’s going to have a big role in Chicago’s offense this season.
Scott – The answer is never Rube Randle, let’s start with that. That guy wanders his pass routes like a puppy chasing a butterfly. I could go either way on JOHNSON or ROYAL, who are both set to get a cushy slot role tied to an experienced quarterback. I’ll side with Royal because I think the Bears, for better or for worse, need him more than the Bolts need Johnson.
Brandon – STILLS. This is close for me between Stills, Royal and Johnson – I’m not, nor have I ever been, a Randle fan. I’m going with Stills, though, because I think he’s the most talented of the bunch, and Miami is trending up in the passing game – finished 12th in pass attempts last season and QB Ryan Tannehill should only continue to improve with another season under his belt.
Popular breakout candidate Zach Ertz, who’s been relegated to second-team duties thus far in training camp, receiving yards this season 749.5.
Scott – I have to go OVER here, thinking what we saw in December (24-242-1, on 31 targets) is a sign of things to come. And Year 3 is often a tasty one for young, emerging tight ends.
Brandon – OVER. He finished with 702 yards last season. He might not get a huge uptick in playing time, but he should get at least a bit of a bump. I’ll say he finishes somewhere between 750-800 yards.
Liz – UNDER. Impressively efficient, Ertz is one of the league’s best pass-catching TEs. Unfortunately, he’s not the best blocker, which is why he lost playing time to Brent Celek. Ertz has spent much of the offseason working on his blocking technique, but he’s still running with the second-team in camp and listed behind Celek on the depth chart.
Additionally, a giant chunk of Ertz’s production last year came from his Week 16 outing at Washington where he posted 15 receptions for 115 yards. That single game made up over 16 percent of Ertz’ total yardage. Setting that one game aside, he averaged 39 yards per game. It’s certainly not impossible for Ertz to flirt with 750 yards, but I think a total closer to 700 is more likely.
[Fantasy Draft Guide: Safest Bets | Busts; | Sleepers; | Breakout Candidates | Top Rookies]
John Brown, recently elevated to the WR2 spot post Michael Floyd digits disaster, final fantasy rank among WRs 36.5 (In other words, will he be a top-36 wideout)?
Brandon – UNDER. He finished 49th last year, and the difference between his numbers and that of Mohamed Sanu, the 34th receiver, was 94 receiving yards – both had five touchdowns. Do I think Brown can pad an extra 9-10 total fantasy points to his ’15 bottom line? Yes, I do. In fact, he’ll probably be good for a few more than that.
Liz – UNDER. IF Carson Palmer can stay healthy. The veteran QB and the sophomore receiver have great chemistry, as evidenced by Weeks 8 and 10 of last season. Those two games were Brown’s most productive in terms of yardage and receptions. Heading into 2015 the duo has been rekindling their bromance, hitting the gym together and further establishing their rapport.
Having the confidence of your QB is one thing. Earning the trust of your coach is another. Bruce Arians likes to spread the ball around, but he also has knack for getting smaller receivers to play big. He was impressed with Brown’s 10-pound weight gain and has mentioned Smokey’s big-play ability.
All signs are pointing towards a breakout year for Brown. Assuming the Cardinals’ revamped offensive line keeps Carson upright, the sophomore wideout could come close to 900 yards and 6 TDs.
Brad – UNDER. Some will stupidly shun him because of his diminutive frame (5’11”, 179 pounds), but the desert bird is a Steve Smith type, a excellent blend of speed, toughness and route savvy. Opening against D softies New Orleans and Chicago he should assert himself as the No. 2 in short order. Kendall Wright was the No. 36 WR last year totaling a 57-715-6 line. Assuming his forward step, Brown should best those numbers without much effort.
Fill in the blank. Arian Foster, who’s stock has yoyo’ed considerably over the past week, is worth the dice roll in Round ________ of 12-team exercises.
Liz – SEVEN. He’s in RB3 territory. The backs in this chunk of drafts are members of muddied backfields. Guys with a respectable amount of talent, but in situations that are less than clear. Think Isaiah Crowell to Tre Mason. Foster falls into the upper echelon of that category. Whether he returns mid-season as is currently the thought or after the Texans’ Week 9 bye as was initially reported, we still don’t know what kind of volume he’ll see. That will depend on everything from his recovery to Houston’s record.
Brad – SEVEN. Isaiah Crowell, Shane Vereen, Chris Ivory and Tre Mason are rushers typically going around that time. It’s presumed Foster will be placed on the IR/Designated to return list which would deactivate him for through Week 9. Still, if the rumored 4-6 week recovery time comes to fruition, he could avoid an extended regular season layoff altogether. Grab him in RD7 and super-glue him to Chris Polk, who I feel will eventually head up the committee in Foster’s absence, five rounds later.
Scott – I’m not putting in a number. I’m confident the rest of the room wants Foster more than I do. Here’s the thing: you’re going to have to play the first nine regular-season fantasy games without Foster. And it’s possible you might not have the gumption to use him in Week 10; there might be a need of a “prove it” week before he’s start-worthy. And what if there’s any kind of a setback, or what if the Texans get off to a lousy start? I hate making positive assumptions on long-term injury cases. You’re going to encounter a handful of other injuries you don’t even know about yet. Why play short a man? Why go out of your way to find problems? In fantasy football, problems find you.
RB Grab bag. All going in the No. 30-40 range overall in average drafts, which rusher will have the finer fantasy season: Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller or Latavius Murray.
Brad – LATAVIUS. The ‘Other Murray’ possesses devastating size/speed characteristics and is slated for a borderline RB1 campaign. Recently tabbed a “do it all” RB by GM Reggie McKenzie he has workhorse appeal behind what should be a much improved offensive line. I refuse to waffle on my original 1,300 total yards, 7-9 TD projection.
Dalton – HYDE. Murray probably has the most upside, but I worry about his durability. I also like Miller, but I question whether the Dolphins do, as he wasn’t given 20 carries in a game even once last season. Hyde will cede third down work to Reggie Bush (at least until Bush gets hurt), but he should approach 275 touches as San Francisco’s new lead back.
Andy – I have LATAVIUS just one spot ahead of Miller in my RB ranks, both ranking top-15. I really have no quarrel with either player. (Hyde, for me, is just a tier below.) I made my case for Murray in this recent predictions piece; he was a revelation last season. It won’t surprise me a bit if he’s a second round player in fantasy drafts next season.
Todd Gurley, who likely won’t see a single snap this preseason, has potential investors between a rock and a hard place. NFL Week he records his first 20 touch effort 5.5.
Andy – OVER, but with an important caveat: I won’t be surprised if he delivers his first 100-plus yardage game much earlier (maybe in Week 3, vs. Pittsburgh). My guess is that the backfield workload will really begin to tilt toward Gurley in early November.
Dalton – OVER. The Rams are going to be extra cautious with him, with an eye toward his future more than any short-term gain. Gurley is a special talent and a future star, but I wouldn’t be expecting 20+ touches any time soon.
Scott – OVER. The Rams have a long-term view for their most talented back. They won’t force the issue.
Sam Bradford, healthy, for now, and firmly entrenched as the Eagles starter, passing touchdowns assuming he somehow plays a full 16-game slate 28.5.
Andy – Well, this is a weird hypothetical, because I would definitely take the under on 16 games. The whole trick of ranking Bradford is accounting for his injury history. But sure, if he were a completely different guy, I’d take the OVER.
Dalton – OVER. I definitely don’t expect Bradford to play 16 games, but if he somehow did, I’d go over here given the system in which he now plays. There’s a lot of upside if he suddenly stops being so injury prone.
Brandon – OVER. The Philly QB position has averaged 29.5 TD passes in Chip Kelly’s two seasons, and I think Bradford is a more talented passer than the Eagles QB collective the past couple of seasons. But, I’m with Andy, the 16 games played is the bigger question for Bradford.
Kevin White, who is a major question mark for Week 1 due to ongoing shin pain, receptions in his inaugural campaign with the Bears 54.5.
Brad – UNDER. Don’t bank on him pulling an Odell Beckham. August is a formative period for any young player. For a green route runner, the missed practice time sets his development back weeks and possibly months. He’ll make an impact, but it likely won’t come until at least midseason. Sharpie me for 48 receptions, 600 yards and four scores this year.
Brandon – UNDER. I’ve had to dial back my enthusiasm on White. In the long run, he probably has the most upside of any WR drafted. But it looks like he’ll be slow played into the Bears offense, and he’s expected to miss the entire preseason with shin splints. If Marc Trestman was still running the show in Chicago, I might bite on this. But, as it stands, I’m bearish on the Bears rookie at this O/U number.
Liz – UNDER. We all know the “John Fox hates rookies” narrative, which makes getting on the field ealry even more important for White. Plus, his quarterback favors familiarity more than most. While White is gifted with incredible athletic attributes, an understanding of Adam Gase’s route tree is what will help him to ascend immediately. There’s potential for him to emerge midseason and he’s likely to have a few flashy plays, but I don’t see him catching more than 40 balls by season’s end.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy team on Twitter: @YahooNoise, @scott_pianowski, @andybehrens, @1befun, @daltondeldon, @LizLoza_FF
- Jamaal Charles
- Zach Ertz
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
