2015 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Picking No. 6 overall – CBSSports.com
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Most drafts will lead off with four running backs going within the first four picks. The fifth pick in most drafts will also be a running back. By this spot — sixth overall — the pick could go a number of ways.
Is the league standard scoring or PPR? How do you feel about the running backs who will be on the board in Round 2 versus the receivers? How do you feel about Rob Gronkowski?
Picking sixth is no picnic. But the dilemmas you’ll have here aren’t anything like the dilemmas you would have if you picked even one or two spots later.
There will be running backs worth taking at six, but there will be receivers too. And Gronk. If catches are worth a point each, those receivers have to be considered. Why not? They’re all 100-catch candidates (maybe a little less for Gronkowski) with room for tons of yards and scores. Plus in a PPR league, running backs are a little deeper and can be found a little later than in standard formats.
That’s not your only tough decision. Rounds 2 and 3 will be challenging, and by the time you get to Round 5 you might not love what’s available.
It’s challenging, but it doesn’t make the sixth pick bad, as you will soon see.
Round 1
Standard: QB 0% | RB 85% | WR 10% | TE 5%
PPR: QB 0% | RB 45% | WR 50% | TE 5%
League format comes into play with the top pick. If catches don’t count, owners should take advantage of the depth at receiver, punt on tight end and take the best available stud running back. It’s the right move considering the wideouts that will be available in Round 2 (and the rushers in Round 3). If catches do count, owners should consider a PPR beast like Antonio Brown, who has been consistent for a while and is a candidate for well over 100 catches this year. Also, PPR drafts typically push receivers and tight ends up, which means running backs slip. You can get by with two rushers taken within your next three picks while locking up the best wideout in PPR leagues. As for Gronkowski, if you really like him there’s no argument in taking him, but it feels a little too soon at sixth overall.
Players I could have had here (Standard and PPR): C.J. Anderson, Matt Forte, Jeremy Hill, Rob Gronkowski?, any wide receiver
My selection at No. 6 standard: C.J. Anderson
My selection at No. 6 PPR: Antonio Brown
Round 2
Standard: QB 5% | RB 20% | WR 70% | TE 5%
PPR: QB 0% | RB 20% | WR 75% | TE 5%
There’s going to be a feeling that if you took a running back in Round 1, you have to take a receiver in Round 2. And vice versa if you took a receiver in Round 1. You don’t have to. In fact, it’s in your best interests to aim for a stud Top 10 receiver in Round 2 regardless of what your first-round pick was. That’s just playing it safe — the receivers in the top 10 have the look of sure-fire must-start thoroughbreds. Don’t let them go unless someone you really want makes it to you.
Players I could have had here (Standard and PPR): Randall Cobb, Mike Evans, Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, DeMarco Murray, Alshon Jeffery
My selection at No. 19 standard: Randall Cobb
My selection at No. 19 PPR: Randall Cobb
Round 3
Standard: QB 10% | RB 65% | WR 25% | TE 0%
PPR: QB 5% | RB 65% | WR 30% | TE 0%
Last round, the recommendation was to take a receiver over almost everyone. This round, it’s time to take a running back over almost everyone. That’s because the receivers who are left on the board aren’t quite up to snuff as the running backs. Weigh the potential — if all the backs and receivers have the same kind of expectation, why not take the position that will be much thinner by the time you’re up in Round 4? That would be running back. Peyton Manning fans will have a tough call to make here because this is also right around the spot he should go.
Players I could have had here (Standard): Melvin Gordon, Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram, Peyton Manning, Brandin Cooks
Players I could have had here (PPR): Lamar Miller, C.J. Spiller, Jordan Matthews, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, Andrew Luck
My selection at No. 30 standard: Melvin Gordon
My selection at No. 30 PPR: Lamar Miller
Round 4
Standard: QB 15% | RB 35% | WR 50% | TE 0%
PPR: QB 10% | RB 45% | WR 45% | TE 0%
There should be enough players with quality expectations to make this pick great. It’s a good spot to swipe a quarterback, but a better spot to land one of the last reputable receivers. Now if you’re already set with stud receivers, go ahead and pass, but you’re probably looking at running backs with flaws and/or inexperience in standard leagues (in PPR the running backs will be OK). There isn’t a tight end worth grabbing at this spot.
Players I could have had here (Standard): Joseph Randle, Amari Cooper, Emmanuel Sanders, Drew Brees
Players I could have had here (PPR): Aaron Rodgers, Julian Edelman, Andre Johnson, Joseph Randle, T.J. Yeldon
My selection at No. 43 standard: Amari Cooper
My selection at No. 43 PPR: Aaron Rodgers
Round 5
Standard: QB 10% | RB 45% | WR 35% | TE 10%
PPR: QB 10% | RB 40% | WR 35% | TE 15%
The middle of Round 5 is a good place to be for fair values, not necessarily steals. You should still focus on starters, so take inventory of what you have and what you need. If you don’t have two rushers or receivers, fill the need now before things look worse in Round 6. But if you feel good about those positions, be on the lookout to splurge at quarterback or tight end. The value at quarterback might be good, not great, but a pick of Travis Kelce at tight end wouldn’t be a reach and should pay off when it comes to setting lineups.
Players I could have had here (Standard): Andre Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Matt Ryan, Andre Ellington, Jarvis Landry, Travis Kelce
Players I could have had here (PPR): Travis Kelce, Andre Ellington, Jarvis Landry, Drew Brees, Giovani Bernard
My selection at No. 54 standard: Andre Johnson
My selection at No. 54 PPR: Travis Kelce
Round 6
Standard: QB 30% | RB 40% | WR 20% | TE 10%
PPR: QB 25% | RB 35% | WR 30% | TE 10%
The advice here is the same as it was last round: fill need but keep an eye out for a modest steal including at quarterback or tight end. Quarterback might be your best bet. Running back will be the position to dwindle down first, so if you need one, strongly consider it here. Problem is that we’re getting into the range of part-time, 10-touch-per-week rushers. Not a lot of fun to draft them unless you think they can strike it big.
Players I could have had here (Standard): Ryan Mathews, Doug Martin, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Roddy White
Players I could have had here (PPR): Sammy Watkins, Roddy White, Ryan Mathews, Devonta Freeman
My selection at No. 67 standard: Ryan Mathews
My selection at No. 67 PPR: Sammy Watkins
Round 7
Standard: QB 25% | RB 25% | WR 30% | TE 20%
PPR: QB 25% | RB 30% | WR 35% | TE 10%
I don’t mind taking a sleeper running back by this point, especially if it’s someone with huge upside. There’s not a lot of risk in taking a chance with a seventh-round pick. The receivers left at this point aren’t all that dandy, either. If there’s a good quarterback sticking out to you, don’t think twice. This is also the range for Greg Olsen in standard leagues, and he’s not a bad pickup at tight end.
Players I could have had here (Standard): David Cobb, Devonta Freeman, Michael Floyd, Charles Johnson, Greg Olsen
Players I could have had here (PPR): David Cobb, Rashad Jennings, Jeremy Maclin, Martellus Bennett, Vincent Jackson, Tony Romo
My selection at No. 78 standard: David Cobb
My selection at No. 78 PPR: David Cobb
Round 8
Standard: QB 20% | RB 35% | WR 25% | TE 20%
PPR: QB 20% | RB 35% | WR 20% | TE 25%
Remember how in Round 4 you were able to make a pick before the entire talent pool took a step back? The same thing is happening in Round 8. There should still be some fellas you’d be okay with at this stage in the draft — and that’s good because when you’re up in Round 9 it all gets a little bit worse. A couple of decent tight ends should still be floating around, so if a number of teams picking after you in Round 8 still need a tight end you should probably pick one up if you haven’t already.
Players I could have had here (Standard): Julius Thomas, Martellus Bennett, Charles Sims, Kevin White, Bishop Sankey, Matthew Stafford
Players I could have had here (PPR): John Brown, Tom Brady, Zach Ertz, Charles Sims, Knile Davis
My selection at No. 91 standard: Charles Sims
My selection at No. 91 PPR: John Brown
Round 9
Standard: QB 15% | RB 30% | WR 35% | TE 20%
PPR: QB 20% | RB 30% | WR 35% | TE 15%
Don’t be surprised to see some good quarterback values here. Russell Wilson slipped to Round 9 in our standard draft, but that was partly because the teams picking after me in Round 8 and before me in 9 already had quarterbacks. Steals like that happen, and it could for you (your quarterback may vary), especially if you pay attention to your opponents’ needs. Save for burglaries like that one, you’ll see a handful of sleeper wide receiver prospects, some running back handcuffs and veterans at every position with some name recognition.
Players I could have had here (Standard): Russell Wilson, Zach Ertz, Matthew Stafford, Brandon LaFell, DeAngelo Williams
Players I could have had here (PPR): Kevin White, Reggie Bush, Arian Foster, Breshad Perriman
My selection at No. 102 standard: Russell Wilson
My selection at No. 102 PPR: Kevin White
Round 10
Standard: QB 10% | RB 30% | WR 25% | TE 25% | K 0% | DST 10%
PPR: QB 15% | RB 30% | WR 25% | TE 20% | K 0% | DST 10%
I mean, it’s Round 10; what do you expect? This is a great spot to land the handcuff to your top running back (like Montee Ball if you took C.J. Anderson). It’s also a good spot for a running back sleeper in general. What about going a little nuts and taking a DST? The timing isn’t perfect, but if you love the picks you’ve already made, go for it. I wouldn’t expect a great tight end or defense at this point.
Players I could have had here (Standard): Andre Williams, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith, Reggie Bush, Ryan Tannehill, Montee Ball
Players I could have had here (PPR): Victor Cruz, Steve Smith, Jonas Gray, Jordan Cameron, Brandon LaFell, Texans DST
My selection at No. 115 standard: Montee Ball
My selection at No. 115 PPR: Jonas Gray
Round 11
Standard: QB 10% | RB 35% | WR 25% | TE 20% | K 0% | DST 10%
PPR: QB 10% | RB 35% | WR 30% | TE 15% | K 0% | DST 10%
It’s not that you should mind taking a DST here, it’s that there could be a sleeper available who you shouldn’t pass up. My favorite sleepers are ones who double as key backups on your roster. So not only are they a safe part of a Fantasy bench, they have some attractive potential to develop into a starter or trade chip. There isn’t a lot of that in the 10th round, but whatever there is makes for an appealing choice.
Players I could have had here (Standard): Carson Palmer, Texans DST, Jeremy Langford, Javorius Allen, Eric Decker
Players I could have had here (PPR): Andre Williams, Seahawks DST, Jerick McKinnon, Darren Sproles, Dwayne Allen
My selection at No. 126 standard: Carson Palmer
My selection at No. 126 PPR: Andre Williams
Round 12
Standard: QB 10% | RB 25% | WR 25% | TE 10% | K 0% | DST 30%
PPR: QB 10% | RB 25% | WR 25% | TE 10% | K 0% | DST 30%
You have three picks left. If you still need a DST and a kicker, you’re looking at your last position player with this pick. You could table it until the next round, or you can just take one here. Also double-check to see if you need a handcuff back to your starter — it’s not too late for a lot of the rushers you might have taken in the early rounds.
Players I could have had here (Standard): Panthers, Rams and Dolphins DSTs, Robert Turbin, Coby Fleener, Chris Polk
Players I could have had here (PPR): Chris Polk, Jeremy Langford, Jason Witten, Bills DST, Carson Palmer, Cody Latimer
My selection at No. 139 standard: Panthers DST
My selection at No. 139 PPR: Chris Polk
Round 13
Standard: QB 5% | RB 10% | WR 10% | TE 5% | K 5% | DST 65%
PPR: QB 5% | RB 10% | WR 10% | TE 5% | K 5% | DST 65%
With two spots left, you’re best off taking a kicker in Round 14 and either the DST you need or the deep sleeper you want. You might find that the best bang-for-buck players left are serviceable (not spectacular) receivers and tight ends along with volatile running backs. Just remember, the worst thing you could do is take a player who you wind up cutting for waiver wire help two weeks into the season. It’s like a free pull of a slot machine — why not take a chance (unless you took the chance already)?
Players I could have had here (Standard): Dwayne Allen, Chris Polk, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Packers and Cardinals DSTs
Players I could have had here (PPR): Carson Palmer, Dolphins DST, Packers and Patriots DSTs, Cody Latimer, Eddie Royal
My selection at No. 150 standard: Dwayne Allen
My selection at No. 150 PPR: Packers DST
Round 14
Standard: QB 0% | RB 0% | WR 0% | TE 0% | K 95% | DST 5%
PPR: QB 0% | RB 0% | WR 0% | TE 0% | K 95% | DST 5%
What do you want me to tell ya? You’re not going to get the very best kicker here — at least, not on paper to start the season. In addition to kickers who play with high-powered offenses, look for kickers who will spend a lot of time indoors. Anytime we can eliminate the weather, it’s good for the strong legs.
Players I could have had here (Standard and PPR): kickers
My selection at No. 163 standard: Chandler Catanzaro
My selection at No. 163 PPR: Chandler Catanzaro
My two teams
Standard
QB: Russell Wilson
RB: C.J. Anderson
RB: Melvin Gordon
WR: Randall Cobb
WR: Amari Cooper
FLEX: Andre Johnson
TE: Dwayne Allen
K: Chandler Catanzaro
DST: Panthers
Reserve: Ryan Mathews
Reserve: David Cobb
Reserve: Charles Sims
Reserve: Montee Ball
Reserve: Carson Palmer
PPR
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Lamar Miller
RB: David Cobb
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Randall Cobb
FLEX: Sammy Watkins
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Chandler Catanzaro
DST: Packers
Reserve: John Brown
Reserve: Kevin White
Reserve: Jonas Gray
Reserve: Andre Williams
Reserve: Chris Polk
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