Draft Analysis: Round-by-Round ADP Values
The concept of a “value pick” often brings to mind late-round fliers, but there’s value to be found across the board. The reverse is also true, with each round presenting its own value traps. Frame by frame, there both players going both too high and too low, creating value anywhere the discerning owner is willing to find it. Going round by round, here are 10 players costing too much, and 10 falling too far.
Note: ADPs via FantasyPros’ consensus ADP.
Round 1
Undervalued: C.J. Anderson (12.6)
It’s hard to call any first-rounder “undervalued,” but Anderson is an extreme bargain as the RB8. He’ll jump ahead of injured RB7 Arian Foster soon enough, but he deserves to vault RB6 Matt Forte, as well. Anderson’s upside is nearly unlimited as Peyton Manning’s caddie in Gary Kubiak’s run-first offense. Kubiak has said the run game will be Manning’s “best friend” this season, and it’s Anderson’s job to make sure that happens. Manning will still be the primary chain mover, but lots of checkdowns will be dumped Anderson’s way, while it’s Anderson who will be the focus of Kubiak’s pledge to run more in the red zone. Anderson has top-three upside, and a legitimate shot at RB1 overall status.
Overvalued: Matt Forte (8.6)
Forte is a textbook example of last year’s accomplishments overshadowing this year’s reality. Forte caught 102 passes in 2014, a record for a running back — and a feat no one wants to repeat. That includes Forte himself. And while Forte might have been setting reception records last season, he was also taking a step back as a runner, watching his YPC dip from 4.6 to 3.9. That was thanks in part to defenses teeing off on Marc Trestman’s predictable scheme, but this is not a runner headed into his prime. Going on 30, Forte has 2,395 career touches. His best days — and fantasy-friendly system — are behind him. Forte is an RB2 being drafted as a top-flight RB1.
Round 2
Undervalued: Jeremy Hill (17.2)
Hill is just one of many second-rounders going lower than he should — I recently wrote 700 words on DeMarco Murray — but perhaps the most obvious bargain in the draft’s second 12 picks. Last year’s RB10 despite making only eight starts, Hill is going as the RB11, behind a quarterback and five pass catchers. He led the entire league in rushing yards and yards per carry over 2014’s final nine games, and is the clear focal point of Hue Jackson’s run-heavy offense. Hill is going to have a hard time not being a top-five running back. He’s a league-winning value at his current ADP.
Overvalued: Randall Cobb (24.0)
Cobb is one of the league’s most dynamic talents, but it’s hard to see him repeating his 12-touchdown contract drive. Cobb is a slot threat who had 13 receiving touchdowns in 36 career games before last year’s outburst. His 12 2014 scores came despite the fact that he was just 20th in receiver targets, and second on his own team in TDs. Cobb is an elite NFL player, but the two wideouts going directly behind him, Alshon Jeffery and Mike Evans, are more-realistic scoring dynamos for 2015. The case against Cobb isn’t his own forecasted production — it’s quite good — it’s just that the wideouts going right after him should be even better.
Round 3
Undervalued: Frank Gore (35.0)
Gore is a hot-button player. On the one hand, he’s the lead back for the league’s best offense. On the other, he’s 32. It’s a perilous age for a running back, no doubt. The last 30-plus player to finish as a top-10 fantasy back was Thomas Jones in 2009. But Gore hasn’t aged like other runners. As former Rotoworlder Chris Wesseling points out, Gore has actually been more effective since turning 28. Gore closed out 2014 with his best two-game stretch since 2006. Routinely greeted by stacked boxes in San Francisco, Gore will now benefit from the soft underbellies Andrew Luck invites. Criminally underused as a receiver by ex-49ers OC Greg Roman, Gore will also get a chance to start flashing his soft hands again. Gore might be the wrong age, but he’s landed in the right place at the right time to defy fantasy expectations.
Overvalued: Peyton Manning (32.2)
Fantasy players get tired of us so-called “experts” preaching to avoid quarterbacks early. Even I’ll admit the mantra can be a bit overblown. There’s something to be said for snagging a points machine like Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck. The same used to be true of Manning, but that time has come and gone. Manning finished as the QB4 last season, but that hardly tells the tale of his 2014. Anyone who owned Manning remembers his stretch-run collapse, where he managed just 10 touchdowns over his final seven starts, averaging a Ponder-esque 259 yards in the process. Manning’s quads may be back to 100 percent, but it’s not like his health can be assumed. Run-game maestro Gary Kubiak is there to ensure his 39-year-old quarterback is no longer the sun, the moon and the stars of the Broncos’ offense. Manning will remain effective. He’s one of the greatest players in league history. He just won’t be a top-five fantasy quarterback, and has zero chance of living up to his current ADP.
Round 4
Undervalued: Lamar Miller (38.6)
Last year’s RB9, Miller is being drafted as the RB18. This is despite the fact he has no viable competition in the Dolphins’ backfield, and is finally being talked up for a bigger role by the coaching staff. Running for one of the league’s most efficient, creative rushing attacks, Miller has the kind of three-down skill-set that makes for fantasy explosions. Past disappointments are understandably leaving some drafters gun shy, but Miller should not be going behind unproven commodities like Carlos Hyde and Melvin Gordon.
Overvalued: Drew Brees (42.8)
For all the talk that the Saints have become a running team, they’re still going to throw. Brees and Sean Payton haven’t swapped out their DNA for Paul Johnson’s. But it’s not like their actions haven’t been supplementing their words. Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham are out, and a better offensive line is in. Brees will be a cinch top-10 quarterback for however long he stays in the game, but top five is beginning to look like a stretch. The signal caller going directly behind him, Ben Roethlisberger, has much higher upside for 2015. Brees isn’t going to sink your fantasy team, but there are better fourth-round values to be had.
Round 5
Undervalued: Travis Kelce (53.6)
You’re tired of the Kelce hype. We get it. It’s just that someone with the ability to be an every-week X factor should not be falling to the middle of the fifth round. Kelce has questions, namely the quarterback throwing him the ball. He was so ridiculously efficient in 2014, corralling 66-of-71 catchable passes, that it can sometimes be hard to spot the room he has to grow in Kansas City’s boxed-in offense. Then you watch this highlight and remember that he wasn’t even at 100 percent health in 2014. No longer fighting Anthony Fasano for snaps, Kelce is ready to be unleashed in 2015 after being unveiled in 2014.
Overvalued: Golden Tate (61.4)
You could argue fantasy owners are actually showing impressive restraint with Tate. Last year’s WR13 is being drafted as the WR24. But it’s still too high for a player whose entire 2014 was built on the back of Calvin Johnson’s injuries. By now you’ve probably already seen the numbers, but to wit: Tate averaged 7.8 catches, 119.8 yards, 0.6 touchdowns and 11.8 targets in the five games where Megatron played fewer than 40 snaps. In the 12 where Johnson was healthy (including the playoffs), Tate’s line crashed to 5.5/68.4/0.16/7.7. (Courtesy of Adam Levitan and the Rotoworld Draft Guide). They’re the numbers of a WR3, something Tate has usually been, and almost certainly will be in 2015.
Round 6
Undervalued: Jeremy Maclin (70.0)
This isn’t the first time I’ve made the case for Maclin this summer, and it probably won’t be the last. Maclin essentially has zero chance to match last season’s WR9 finish with Alex Smith at the controls, but he hasn’t forgotten how to play football. Yes, Smith was an extreme liability in 2014, but it’s not as if he was working with a superstar cast at receiver. Maclin will be the best wideout Smith has had in Kansas City by a mile, and one who can almost certainly muster WR2 numbers one year after catching 85 passes for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns. Coach Andy Reid will be itching to funnel Maclin — a player he has now both drafted and given $55 million — targets after circumstance dictated they be spread around the past two seasons. There’s zero excuse for a 27-year-old receiver in his prime to be going behind Tate and Brandon Marshall, not to mention rookie Amari Cooper. 2014 was Maclin’s career year, not the end of it.
Overvalued: Seahawks Defense (65.8)
The Seahawks’ D is in a class of its own, but you simply don’t select a defense before the final two rounds. Taking one in the first six is fantasy malpractice. Even for units as dominant as Seattle’s, team Ds can be a fickle year-to-year proposition. Take a difference making skill player in Round 6, not a position that’s best left streamed.
Round 7
Undervalued: Martavis Bryant (74.4)
Once in danger of being overdrafted, Bryant has transformed into a bargain after Ben Roethlisberger claimed Markus Wheaton would be the Steelers’ No. 2 receiver. Maybe Wheaton will begin the year with that distinction, but there’s one big problem: He’s nowhere near as good as Bryant. A touchdown-scoring force from the second he first set foot on an NFL field, Bryant found the end zone eight times as a rookie despite drawing just 49 targets on 306 snaps. When the chips were down in the Wild Card round, he was on the field for 62-of-76 plays. Even if the charade of “Wheaton, No. 2 receiver” continues indefinitely, Bryant should easily live up to his current ADP of WR27, and likely blow by it.
Overvalued: Darren McFadden (83.8)
This one doesn’t really need much explanation. McFadden was a unique talent when he entered the NFL in 2008, but his stiff, upright running style quickly eroded his durability. He’s posted a Trent Richardson-esque 3.3 YPC over the past three seasons, a number that covers 485 carries and 38 games. Simply running behind Dallas’ elite offensive line isn’t going to restore a yard per carry to his YPC, let alone 1.5. It’s quite possible McFadden doesn’t even make the Cowboys’ 53-man roster. He’s a boondoggle waiting to happen as a top-100 fantasy pick.
Round 8
Undervalued: Ameer Abdullah (98.6)
A dynamic every-down talent, Abdullah’s path to playing time is paved with gold as an aging and increasingly-ineffective Joique Bell struggles to get healthy. Even if Abdullah ends up the passing-down back in a committee, his upside far outstrips his current ADP of RB34. He should not be going behind players like McFadden. That injustice should be corrected in the coming weeks, so get Abdullah at a discount while you still can. He has the talent, and perhaps the role, to be this year’s top rookie back.
Overvalued: Stephen Gostkowski (97.4)
As is the case with the Seahawks Defense, it doesn’t make any sense to take a non-skill player this early in the draft. Kickers are volatile from year to year, and highly replaceable from week to week. Taking one ahead of the likes of upside talents like Abdullah, Nelson Agholor and Allen Robinson is an easy way to lose a fantasy league. Let someone else be the rube who takes the first kicker.
Round 9
Undervalued: Charles Johnson (110.0)
Of all the ADPs we’ve discussed so far, Johnson’s might be the most out of whack. An elite athlete — we’re talking 6-foot-2, 225 pounds with 4.39 speed — Johnson jump-started the Vikings’ offense after joining the starting lineup last Week 12, prompting OC Norv Turner to call him “far and away our best receiver.” That was before Mike Wallace came to town, but if Turner — who has coached his fair share of elite wideouts — believes in Johnson, why shouldn’t fantasy owners? Johnson provides upside as the WR41 that simply shouldn’t exist at this stage of the draft. Johnson is a potential WR2 at a WR4 price.
Overvalued: Steve Smith Sr. (103.4)
Sr. was a renaissance man for Gary Kubiak’s 2014 offense, but has lost a play-caller who has never been shy about featuring his “X” receiver. Now 36, the Ravens have unsurprisingly talked about dialing back Smith’s snaps to help keep him fresh. Sr. has been underestimated before, but he feels like a fool’s play when talents like Johnson and Torrey Smith are still on the board. Smith is unlikely to be a bad fantasy pick in Round 9, but there’s much greater upside to be found elsewhere.
Round 10
Undervalued: Marques Colston (133.2)
Truth to be told, there are few values to be found in Round 10, but Colston as the WR44 seems unduly pessimistic. Colston is on the downslope of his career, but still has unrivaled chemistry with Drew Brees. As you may have heard, Brees lost two of his top targets in Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham this offseason, and the Saints didn’t address pass catcher in the draft. Brees has to throw to someone, so why not Colston, who despite the outward appearance of disappointment still finished as the WR31 last season. That’s firmly in WR3 territory. It’s not wishful thinking to assume Colston can match last year’s production, and last year’s production would be a nice value at his current ADP.
Overvalued: Antonio Gates (125.4)
This is a “name value” pick. Gates had a turn-back-the-clock 2014 … and was then promptly popped for PEDs. Whether or not you’re willing to connect those dots, the fact remains that Gates is missing the first quarter of the season, and if you include the Chargers’ bye, 5-of-13 fantasy weeks. There’s no reason to snatch him up in the 10th round when talents like Kyle Rudolph and Larry Donnell can be gotten for a fraction of the cost.
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