Three-Man Weave: Which Western Conference contender is most vulnerable?
With the draft and the bulk of free agency now behind us, it’s time to start taking stock of what’s transpired this summer and how it all figures to impact the upcoming NBA campaign.
First up for consideration: Which Western Conference contender looks most vulnerable heading into next season?
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Kelly Dwyer: Last October I picked the Memphis Grizzlies to miss the playoffs, not because I’m a complete and utter idiot (I totally am, never forget this), but just because I chose them as the Random Western Team That Can’t Afford a Major Injury. It turned out that the Oklahoma City Thunder was that team, and they needed three major injuries to barely keep them out of the playoffs by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin. I still think the Grizzles can be that team, heaven forbid, and I also think they can win a championship in 2016. Such is life in the West (the Grizzlies play in the Central time zone, and just barely).
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The Houston Rockets are ostensibly contenders based on their Western Conference finals appearance from last year, but the team has a lot to figure out on the fly. Sure, Houston will hopefully be healthier once spring hits, but it will also have to deal with the weird push/pull that is Dwight Howard’s career. Is he slowly working his way back from his injury concerns and about to have one last prime season, or was last year the peak? Presuming Ty Lawson is in a sound state of mind as he deals with his admitted sickness, is he a fit or an odd match?
The San Antonio Spurs are a hard read. They’ve never been a destination point, losing out on gathering free agents from other teams in 2000 and 2003, and while you would trust Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan, a penknife and flask of Canadian whiskey at the scene of a major accident to solve all issues, this is still a roster that has to learn how to develop on company time. LaMarcus Aldridge is as determined and versatile as they come, but the depth is lacking and his teammates are old.
I also wrote those last four words in 2006.
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Ben Rohrbach: I’m working under the assumption that the Golden State Warriors, Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Grizzlies, Spurs and Thunder will contend out West. The Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks regressed this summer, and while the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz are poised to take steps forward, none of those four teams will challenge the aforementioned sextet, customary health caveat withstanding.
Golden State kept its core intact, save for circuitously swapping David Lee for Jason Thompson. Houston hopes Ty Lawson discovers Uber and his 3-point shot. The Clips retooled their bench. San Antonio reloaded. Oklahoma City returns Russell Westbrook and a rehabbed Kevin Durant.
That leaves Memphis, a city with title hopes ever since the unlikely “grit ‘n grind” run to Game 7 of the 2011 conference semifinals. The argument for the Grizzlies remaining in contention is an understandable one, as they pushed the Warriors further than anyone in the West despite the absences of a masked Mike Conley and hobbled Tony Allen in Games 1 and 5 of their second-round series.
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The additions of Matt Barnes and Brandan Wright provide head coach Dave Joerger with more versatility matchup-wise, but neither represents a significant upgrade over the existing options of Tony Allen and Jeff Green on the wing and the loss of Kosta Koufos in the middle. So, when faced with the question of which West team is most vulnerable, I’d place my chips on Memphis, betting on an aging core (Vince Carter, 38; Barnes, 35; Zach Randolph, 34; Allen, 33; Beno Udrih, 33; Marc Gasol, 30; and Courtney Lee, 30) being unable to eclipse what they accomplished in their prime and experiencing the sort of slide that inevitably befalls a stagnant roster.
As gritty as the Grizzlies are, eventually they’re going to grind to a halt.
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Dan Devine: I wouldn’t say “most vulnerable,” but I’m a bit concerned about the Warriors, if only because it’s tough to replicate the sort of health luck they had in their championship run. Golden State’s players lost the NBA’s fourth-fewest number of games due to injury, per Jeff Stotts of InStreetClothes.com, and the fewest total minutes to injury, per ESPN.com’s Tom Haberstroh, with only one member of the Dubs’ top eight missing a considerable chunk of time. (A right knee injury cost center Andrew Bogut a dozen games in December and January, but he bounced back to log more regular- and postseason minutes than he had since 2010-11 and earn a spot on the All-Defensive Second Team.)
Then again, given both the youth of the Warriors’ core — the top four of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes range in age from 23 to 27 — and the organization’s emphasis on rest and biomechanical monitoring, it’s possible that this luck was the residue of careful design, and might be more repeatable than you’d think. And while I’ve got my concerns about the Spurs (now perhaps a bit top-heavy) and Grizzlies (age can be a lot more than a number), I feel like I have an easier time seeing things short-circuiting for the Clippers than the West’s other top-flight teams.
Yes, the Clippers eventually accomplished their prime summer objective, keeping All-NBA Third Team center DeAndre Jordan after his infamous dalliance in Dallas. Yes, they built a bench on a budget, importing five potentially useful players — versatile forwards Josh Smith and Wesley Johnson, backup center Cole Aldrich, veteran point guard Pablo Prigioni and rookie Summer League standout Branden Dawson — on minimum deals, while also taking a buy-low risk on Lance Stephenson that cost them only the 35-year-old Barnes and persona non grata Spencer Hawes. Yes, they upped their experience-and-gravitas quotient by adding Paul Pierce. All these moves look positive on paper; I’m just curious how they’ll play out in practice.
How will the playmaking responsibility get divided up with Stephenson, Smith, incumbent sixth man Jamal Crawford and re-upped postseason spark plug Austin Rivers — all more productive and comfortable with the ball than without it — sharing the second unit? Now that he’s got the pieces to downshift, how comfortable will Doc Rivers be with running small-ball lineups more frequently, especially now that Jordan’s a maxed-out star? Smith and Aldrich sure look like significant defensive upgrades over Hawes, Glen Davis and Hedo Turkoglu, but will that be enough to keep the Clips from capsizing when Jordan and Blake Griffin sit?
What if Stephenson can’t pull out of the tailspin that followed his exit from Indiana? As much as Jordan, Rivers, Griffin, Chris Paul and everyone else have downplayed the issues that led DeAndre to agree to leave L.A., are we sure that one full-house group-hug solved everything? And is this collection of new vets, reshuffled relationships and combustible elements what’s needed to right what went wrong with a team that coughed up a 3-1 series lead and a 19-point second-half lead in the Western semis?
It very well might be — L.A. returns the core of a 56-win team that was one win away from the conference finals, and looks deeper than any squad of the CP3-Blake-DeAndre era. But something about the finished product feels just a touch off to me, and in a conference this tightly packed and hotly contested, a minor slip could become a major fall.
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