Shutdown Countdown: Steelers have become an offensive power

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

NO. 5: PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Let’s get it out of the way right now: The Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t going to be able to cover anybody.

Their secondary is a lot of question marks and no names, even with the addition of cornerback Brandon Boykin from the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this month. Cornerback Ike Taylor and safety Troy Polamalu retired together this offseason. Not much was done to replace them. The argument against the Steelers is that their defense was mediocre at best last season, and it won’t improve.

(Graphic by Amber Matsumoto) I get all of that. But I’m buying into these Steelers. They were much better at the end of last season than anyone remembers, their front seven is going to be just fine and, man oh man, that offense.

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What do most people remember about the 2014 Steelers? Probably them going one-and-done in the playoffs. They lost to the Baltimore Ravens in the opening round. But that’s not entirely fair. Le’Veon Bell was out for the game. Ben Tate, who was cut twice during last season, was signed the week of the game and started. The Steelers went from arguably the best running back in football to a guy who didn’t have a job as the regular season ended. I’m willing to give them a pass.

Before that? They won four in a row to finish the season and were 8-2 from Oct 20 on. Three of those last four wins came against teams that had winning records in 2014 (two over Cincinnati) and another at Atlanta, which was still in playoff contention. I have and will continue to believe that if Bell never got hurt, they were going to beat the Ravens, win at the Denver Broncos the following week, and then probably give the New England Patriots a better game in the AFC championship than the Indianapolis Colts did. Because we judge teams so much on the one-and-done playoffs, we’d think about the Steelers entirely differently right now had they gone on that run. But Bell got hurt and it never happened.

The Steelers have a legitimate MVP candidate in quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, arguably the NFL’s best running back in Bell (and a good backup in DeAngelo Williams to play while Bell serves a two-game suspension) and perhaps the best receiver in the NFL in Antonio Brown. There are other less-heralded weapons and the line is much improved. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley and Roethlisberger seem to be on the same page. This will be the best offense in the AFC for the second straight year.

On defense the Steelers could start four first-round picks at linebacker, and there’s a ton of speed and talent in that group. The line in front of them is solid. Some old veterans departed off the defense, including long-time coordinator Dick LeBeau, but maybe some new blood will benefit everyone.

I think the Steelers are underrated by many coming into the year because they didn’t make any noise in the playoffs. But they had a good excuse for that. This won’t be the defense-first Steelers team that we’ve grown accustomed to watching over the years, but they’re going to be pretty good.

2014 review in less than 25 words: The Steelers were as hot as anyone down the stretch and won the AFC North, but a playoff failure left a sour taste.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same? The names the Steelers lost off the defense — Polamalu, Taylor, defensive lineman Brett Keisel and suddenly-retired linebacker Jason Worilds — represent a lot of star power. But the only one still playing at a high level last season was Worilds, and he was a free agent anyway. And the Steelers drafted Bud Dupree in the first round to replace him. The only free-agent addition of note was Williams and the draft class is off to a rocky start with second-round pick cornerback Senquez Golson possibly out for the year with a shoulder injury, so the roster surely isn’t better.

Best offseason acquisition: I suppose it has to be Williams since he was the only free-agent addition. Williams is a solid veteran and the Steelers were woefully short at running back after cutting LeGarrette Blount. That allowed Bell to blossom as he got a higher percentage of snaps than any team gives its tailback in this era. The Steelers will be able to give Bell a break this season because Williams, the longtime Carolina Panther, should be productive when he plays.

Achilles’ heel: The secondary is obvious, but let’s look at a troubling trend. Why do the Steelers seem to blow so many games they shouldn’t? Six of their eight losses in 2013 came to teams that finished .500 or less. Then 2014 was really weird. If we put their resume on the screen like an NCAA Tournament bubble team, under “bad losses” they would have had the worst set of losses among any decent NFL team: Tampa Bay at home, at Cleveland, at the New York Jets and at home against New Orleans. The Saints and Browns weren’t terrible, but the Jets and Bucs? There was a point last season in which the Jets and Buccaneers were 2-0 against the Steelers and 2-22 against the rest of the NFL. “Upset” losses happen in the NFL because this isn’t college football and you can’t schedule Jacksonville State and Idaho. Every NFL team is capable. But you can’t lose to the 2014 Buccaneers at home, either. It would be nice if coach Mike Tomlin cleaned up that issue.

Position in flux: Let’s go to the coaching staff for this one. LeBeau is an absolute legend, and especially so around Pittsburgh. That’s why it was a shock when the Steelers and LeBeau “parted ways,” with LeBeau almost immediately ending up in Tennessee after he resigned. Keith Butler, the longtime linebackers coach, took his spot. It’s hard to suggest that the defense maybe needed a spark, because that seems disrespectful to one of the greatest coordinators of all time, but maybe that’s the case. Either way, Butler will be watched closely. It’s not easy taking over for a Hall of Famer.

Ready to break out: One reason I’m OK with the Steelers defense is Ryan Shazier. Shazier, the team’s first-round pick last year, never really took off as a rookie because of injuries. But he looked fantastic in the preseason when he was healthy, and played well early in the season before injuries hit. I think Shazier has a big season coming, and he and fellow inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons will be one of the best inside duos in the NFL.

Stat fact: Brown’s consistency is unbelievable. He holds the NFL record for consecutive games with at least five catches and 50 yards, at 32 and counting coming into the season. He also has a record for at least five catches and 70 yards in 18 straight games. Remember when it was a big deal to have a streak of consecutive games with one catch? Brown laughs at your low standards. Five catches or get out of here.

Schedule degree of difficulty: This is a problem for the Steelers. The AFC North, a first-place schedule and dates with the NFC West conspire to give the Steelers the toughest schedule in the NFL, based on 2014 records. The combined 2014 record of their opponents is 147-107-2. Even if the Steelers are good, their schedule will limit their regular-season ceiling.

This team’s best-case scenario for the 2015 season: I think this team can win a Super Bowl. The offense is not a question. I think the defense could mimic the 2013 Carolina Panthers, with a group of super-fast linebackers masking some deficiencies in the secondary. The Steelers were really on a roll at the end of last season, Roethlisberger is coming off a monster 4,952-yard season and seems to be getting better, and Bell is a superstar at tailback. The AFC doesn’t have an unbeatable favorite, especially if the Patriots drop some games without Tom Brady (perhaps including a Week 1 game against Pittsburgh), and the Steelers can out-score anyone.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: I’d be foolish to ignore that the defense was fairly awful last season. They were 27th in yards per pass play allowed and 25th in yards per rushing play allowed. And they didn’t make a lot of additions in the offseason. The Steelers still went 11-5 with that defense, but if they don’t make the playoffs it will be because the defense was bad again.

The crystal ball says: Obviously I like the Steelers this season. I think the offense is fantastic and the defense will get a bit of a spark with some new faces, and they win a tough AFC North. And while I don’t think I’ll be picking the Steelers to win the Super Bowl, at 25-to-1 to win it they’re the best value on the board (or maybe the Miami Dolphins at 40-to-1, via Sportsbook.ag). They were poised for a run last season before Bell got hurt, and I believe they’ll make it happen this season. There’s a reasonable chance they have the best quarterback, running back and receiver in the NFL this season. Of course, there’s also the chance that Jimmy Garoppolo wrecks the Pittsburgh defense in the NFL season opener and I feel dumb for having placed so much faith in this team.

Previous previews
32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Washington Redskins
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. New York Jets
26. Chicago Bears
25. Cleveland Browns
24. Atlanta Falcons
23. San Francisco 49ers
22. New York Giants
21. New Orleans Saints
20. Houston Texans
19. Carolina Panthers
18. St. Louis Rams
17. Minnesota Vikings
16. San Diego Chargers
15. Buffalo Bills
14. Detroit Lions
13. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Cincinnati Bengals
10. Arizona Cardinals
9. Miami Dolphins
8. Dallas Cowboys
7. Baltimore Ravens
6. Denver Broncos