(Ed Mulholland, USA TODAY Sports)

(Ed Mulholland, USA TODAY Sports)

Average draft position (ADP) is just a means of evaluating the approximate value of a fantasy selection, certainly not the be-all, end-all measuring stick. Understand that league nuances greatly impact when players tend to come off the board, but in standard PPR scoring, these players are being overvalued.

*ADP figures come from FantasyFootballCalculator.com

image1RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (ADP: Pick 1:11): Losing the friendly confines of a Marc Trestman offense will be damaging — irreparably to Forte’s current first-round average placement. An age-30 season, coming off 731 touches over the last two seasons, Forte is well-positioned to collapse.

image2WR Brandon Marshall, New York Jets (ADP: Pick 5:06): Historically speaking, when a prized wide receiver begins his descent it is a steep, spiraling crash landing. While just 31 years old, Marshall has undergone more than his fair share of surgeries and now enters the worst quarterbacking situation of his career.

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image3QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (ADP: Pick 6:01): Discounting this high-volume attack seems like a fool’s errand. Objectively, the outlook isn’t rosy in 2015. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks is smallish (5-10, 189 pounds) and has to remain healthy. Marques Colston, 32, is an elder statesman at this point. And that Jimmy Graham guy is gone. Just how much can passing in bulk overcome?

https://usatfantasy.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/image4.jpg?w=50&h=50WR Victor Cruz, New York Giants (ADP: Pick 6:11): The buzz suggests Cruz will be back figuratively bigger and badder than ever before … don’t count on it. A torn patella tendon rehab is nothing like an anterior cruciate ligament recovery. It robs players of their explosiveness, despite what Prince Amukamara professes, and will leave Cruz struggling to separate from defenders.

https://usatfantasy.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/image5.jpg?w=50&h=50Seattle Seahawks defense/ (ADP: 9:05): Every single year people overdraft defensive teams. Most people probably default to Seattle being the best fantasy defense, which hasn’t been true in any of the last five years. Last year, this unit ranked tied for 23rd in standard fantasy points. No joke. Your response: Don’t draft a defense before the penultimate round. Period.