Shutdown Corner: Well-rounded Ravens always a Super Bowl threat

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

NO. 7: BALTIMORE RAVENS

In this offseason of regret, most of the focus has been on the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks, who blew playoff games in heartbreaking fashion. But don’t forget about the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens didn’t flub an onside kick or throw an interception when they should have been running from the 1-yard line, but that doesn’t lessen their pain. Twice they held a 14-point lead over the New England Patriots in a divisional playoff game. The Patriots played incredible football down the stretch to barely pull off the win. Two games later, the Patriots won a Super Bowl.

(Graphic by Amber Matsumoto) The Ravens had to feel like that could have easily been them on the stage accepting another Lombardi Trophy.

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The Ravens are one of those teams who you can pencil in to be somewhere in the range of good to great every season. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2000, the Ravens have had just three losing seasons, and the last one was 2007. Coach John Harbaugh has never finished under .500 in his seven seasons. They’ve been to the playoffs six of the last seven years, and won a Super Bowl in that stretch. And you can assume they’ll be contenders again this season.

The Ravens lost some key players this offseason, but the biggest change came at offensive coordinator. Gary Kubiak did an exceptional job last season, re-inventing the Ravens offense with his work in the running game. Kubiak is a master at implementing the zone running scheme, and behind that Justin Forsett went from being a journeyman to one of the best running backs in football. Forsett had 1,692 yards in his first six NFL seasons. He had 1,266 in his seventh season, with Kubiak. Kubiak became the Denver Broncos head coach this offseason.

Marc Trestman, the fired Chicago Bears head coach, takes over. He has vowed to not change the offense, and that’s probably a smart thing. Flacco had a career-best 91 rating last season. Forsett was fifth in the NFL in rushing yards. Put that with a very strong defense and typically good special teams, and the Ravens are among the small group of teams who should realistically believe they can win a Super Bowl.

It wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Ravens did make it to the Super Bowl. You already know that under Harbaugh, they’re going to be in the mix.

2014 review in less than 25 words: The Ravens lost seven games, including playoffs, and five of those were by a touchdown or less.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same? It’s not better since the Ravens were quiet in free agency. Torrey Smith isn’t an all-around receiver, but his deep ability will be missed. Outside linebacker Pernell McPhee was never a full-time player because the Ravens are so deep, but the $40 million he got from the Chicago Bears speaks to his talent level. Defensive tackle Haloti Ngata was traded to the Detroit Lions to shave some salary. Safety Kendrick Lewis was a solid free-agent addition, and perhaps first- and second-round picks receiver Breshad Perriman and tight end Maxx Williams help the offense right away. The roster is worse, but the Ravens had the depth to withstand it.

Best offseason acquisition: I’m pretty high on Perriman, who I think can develop into a more well-rounded version of Smith if he eliminates the drops from his game. Perriman is big, lightning fast, and some of his production issues last season at UCF can be explained away by poor quarterback play. And it’s not like his 50-1,044-9 line was all that bad. Steve Smith can’t be productive forever (right?) and Perriman might quickly find himself as Joe Flacco’s top target. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the rare rookie to post a 1,000-yard season. I think the Ravens got a steal with the 26th overall pick.

Achilles’ heel: There aren’t many glaring weaknesses on the roster, but depth at cornerback has been a concern lately. Jimmy Smith is a good No. 1 cornerback, but is coming off a season-ending Lisfranc injury in his foot. The Ravens don’t seem to be worried because they gave him a four-year, $48 million extension this offseason. Lardarius Webb can be a good second corner if he stays healthy. The Ravens added Kyle Arrington and Cassius Vaughn, which should help depth. The Ravens gave up the 23rd most yards against the pass last season, the 17th most yards per pass attempt and had just 11 interceptions. There’s a reason Tom Brady passed 50 times in that playoff comeback, and why he had 367 yards and three touchdowns. On an otherwise solid team, the Ravens aren’t great against the pass.

Position in flux: There has to be some concern that Forsett is a one-year wonder. He played very well from beginning to end last season, but nothing in his NFL history suggests that’s his norm. He’ll turn 30 this year and nearly doubled his career high in carries last season. If Forsett struggles or gets hurt, the Ravens have some questions. Lorenzo Taliaferro seems to be next in line after averaging 4.3 yards on 68 carries as a rookie last year. Javorius “Buck” Allen, a fourth-round pick this year, might help. The Ravens will have to figure out their backup plan for Forsett, and hope they never need to use it.

Ready to break out: It’s more of a question than a prediction: Can one of the Ravens’ young strong safeties be a star? Matt Elam was a first-round pick in 2013 but hasn’t played to that level. He also suffered an arm injury on Aug. 1 in practice that could knock him out a while, and perhaps for the season if he tore his biceps. Will Hill has flashed legitimate NFL talent, but has to show he’s reliable after so many off-field issues caused the Giants to cut him. Both of those players have an excellent opportunity, and the Ravens hope at least one of them takes advantage.

Stat fact: In Football Outsiders’ final 2014 ratings of their DVOA per-play metric, only one team finished in the top 10 in offense, defense, special teams and overall ranking: the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens finished ninth in offense, eighth in defense, second in special teams and fifth overall. That shows how well rounded the roster is.

Schedule degree of difficulty: In a bit of a scheduling quirk, the Ravens have five of their first seven games on the road, including long trips to Denver, Oakland, San Francisco and Arizona. But of course it all evens out, and if the Ravens survive that stretch then six of their last nine are at home, including a three-game homestand in December against Seattle, Kansas City and Pittsburgh.

This team’s best-case scenario for the 2015 season: The Ravens will again be among the best teams in football, especially if Forsett repeats his 2014 and Perriman and Williams immediately help the passing game. The Ravens have won playoff games at New England and Denver in recent years, so it’s not like a trip to either place in the postseason would bother them, if it comes to that. There’s also a good chance the Ravens play well during that early stretch of road games and get the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: The AFC North is tough, and the Ravens didn’t win it last year. If Smith slows down at age 36 (his four 100-yard games last regular season all came in the first six weeks) and Perriman and Williams aren’t ready as rookies, who will Flacco throw to? And if the Ravens miss Kubiak’s brilliance in the run game, the offense could take a big step back. The Ravens won’t be bad, because they never are, but missing the playoffs would be tough to swallow.

The crystal ball says: The Ravens are so well run and well coached, it’s folly to pick against them. They’re a tough team on both sides of the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if they win the AFC North, but you can look at who has been listed so far on the countdown and figure out I like another North team a little better. I think the Ravens make the playoffs as a wild-card team and nobody will want to play them in January, as usual.

Previous previews
32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Washington Redskins
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. New York Jets
26. Chicago Bears
25. Cleveland Browns
24. Atlanta Falcons
23. San Francisco 49ers
22. New York Giants
21. New Orleans Saints
20. Houston Texans
19. Carolina Panthers
18. St. Louis Rams
17. Minnesota Vikings
16. San Diego Chargers
15. Buffalo Bills
14. Detroit Lions
13. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Cincinnati Bengals
10. Arizona Cardinals
9. Miami Dolphins
8. Dallas Cowboys