Shutdown Countdown: Cowboys need a new formula without DeMarco Murray

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

NO. 8: DALLAS COWBOYS

In a long-ago era, like maybe seven or eight years ago, we wouldn’t be having this conversation about the Dallas Cowboys and their running backs.

The Dallas Cowboys would have re-signed DeMarco Murray, because running backs were not yet thought of as disposable quantities that you draft, use up and discard. In many ways, NFL teams have gotten smarter about investing resources in running backs. The return is often poor. But the Cowboys are taking that theory to the extreme.

(Graphic by Amber Matsumoto) The Cowboys reportedly made a good but not great offer to Murray, and Murray unsurprisingly walked. He signed with the Philadelphia Eagles. That isn’t an insignificant loss. Murray was clearly the MVP of the Cowboys’ 12-4 NFC East championship season in 2014.

The Cowboys are betting that anyone can have success running the ball in their offense, behind an elite line. And to make sure their point was being made loud and clear, Dallas did nothing to replace Murray. if the Cowboys were going to run this experiment, they were going all the way with it.

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It’s risky. The Cowboys found a great formula last year, and credit coach Jason Garrett for that. Behind the best offensive line in the NFL, the Cowboys rode Murray hard. They knew he could handle it. Murray rushed for 1,845 yards, the 17th highest total in NFL history and almost 500 yards ahead of second-place Le’Veon Bell (1,361). Tony Romo, freed from having to carry the offense, threw less and had the most efficient season of his career. He barely missed becoming the sixth player in NFL history to complete 70 percent of his passes, settling for 69.9 percent. Romo had a career-best 113.2 rating, by far exceeding his career mark. And the defense, which wasn’t good in 2013, was on the field for only 978 plays. That was fifth fewest in the league, as Murray ate up yards and the clock. Dallas finished a respectable 14th in yards allowed.

It all worked together. The best front offices build teams that play complementary football, in which one strength feeds off another or sometimes hides a weakness. The Cowboys did that better than anyone last season. Murray was named NFL offensive player of the year. Romo had a career year. The defense played above its talent level. The Cowboys made the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and won their second playoff game this century. It clicked. Now it changes. Jerry Jones and company will be second guessed for a long time if it doesn’t work.

The theory has to be that last season was more about the offensive line than Murray, because the Cowboys’ running back depth chart is surprisingly weak. Joseph Randle has 105 career carries for 507 yards, and he’s by far Dallas’ best option. Darren McFadden is hurt, and hasn’t been a good back for a few years. Ryan Williams already went to injured reserve. Lance Dunbar is even less proven than Randle. Lache Seastrunk has been practice-squad fodder. The Cowboys didn’t draft a running back. They didn’t sign anyone of note either.

Maybe Randle is going to be phenomenal. Or maybe the Cowboys will miss their MVP more than they counted on, and last season can’t be replicated. NFL Films’ Greg Cosell likes to say that being a workhorse back is a skill, to have the mentality to want the ball 25 times a game and take that punishment. Randle has never had more than 13 carries in a game. Randle has reached double-digit carries four times in his career, and has averaged 2.54 yards in those games. If you have a strong opinion on Randle for this season, it’s still just a guess. Nobody knows how he’ll do in Murray’s role. To assume Randle will produce just like Murray is probably ignoring what a special season Murray had.

The Cowboys had quite a renaissance last season — and even if you hate them, come on, admit it was fun that they were relevant again. But it’s possible that although most of the cast looks exactly the same this season, the production as a whole will look a lot different without the 2014 headliner.

2014 review in less than 25 words: The Cowboys had a fantastic season, winning a controversial playoff game against the Lions before losing a controversial playoff game against the Packers.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same? I can’t write that opus on how Murray’s loss is being underrated and say the roster is better, right? I also like linebackers Bruce Carter and Justin Durant more than most, and they’re gone. So is defensive tackle Henry Melton. I’m not sure any of those players were adequately replaced. Defensive end Greg Hardy was the big addition, and the Cowboys caught a break when his suspension was reduced from 10 games to four.

Best offseason acquisition: Let’s leave the off-field stuff with Hardy aside, because it’s not like you can’t find many discussions on that topic elsewhere. The Cowboys didn’t rush the quarterback that well last season, and now they add one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. In his last 32 games, Hardy has 27 sacks. He’ll command a lot of attention and that could free things up for fellow end DeMarcus Lawrence, who we’ll speak more about in a moment.

Achilles’ heel: The Cowboys drafted cornerback Byron Jones in the first round, and they might need him to play a lot right away. Orlando Scandrick really has saved the Cowboys the last couple years by making a successful transition from nickel corner to full-time starter, but there are questions after him. Brandon Carr has been a disappointment. Former top-10 pick Morris Claiborne was looking like a bust and now faces a long road back after tearing his patellar tendon in his left knee last season. The Cowboys’ cornerback situation is a bit scary if Jones struggles as a rookie.

Position in flux: On most other teams, La’el Collins would start as a rookie. But there’s no spot for him in Dallas, at least not yet. Collins went from first-round talent to undrafted after the crazy and tragic story of his ex-girlfriend being shot and killed (Collins was cleared; Yahoo’s Dan Wetzel caught up with Collins and recounted the entire unusual tale). Collins is still working with the second team at left guard, as 2014 starter Ronald Leary has kept his spot. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Leary kept the spot all year, as he played really well last season. But Collins is worth keeping an eye on, in case he’s needed as a rookie.

Ready to break out: I can’t just pencil in Randle here; there are just too many doubts until I see him with a full workload. I’ll play it safe and go with Lawrence, who finished last season with a bang. Lawrence, a second-round pick last year, missed half the season because of injuries. Then he had a strip-sack to end the playoff game against the Lions, and another sack a week later against the Packers. You’d assume once Hardy returns and eats up attention, Lawrence will benefit. He should have a nice second season.

Stat fact: Dez Bryant is fourth in Cowboys history with 56 touchdowns catches in just 75 games. Everyone ahead of Bryant on the list played at least 53 more games. Bob Hayes is the leader with 71 receiving touchdowns in 128 games, so Bryant has about three-and-a-half seasons to get 15 touchdowns to match Hayes, a Hall of Famer. Fellow Hall of Famer Michael Irvin had nine more career touchdowns than Bryant has now, in 84 more games.

Schedule degree of difficulty: The Cowboys don’t have it too bad, and they catch a big break getting the Patriots at home on the last game of Tom Brady’s suspension. Dallas has the 24th toughest schedule, based on 2014 records.

This team’s best-case scenario for the 2015 season: A Super Bowl win. How often have Cowboys fans wondered if they could have been last season’s Super Bowl champions had Dez Bryant’s fourth-down play at Lambeau Field been ruled a catch? Considering they were that close last year, if the Cowboys are right on their gamble that any back can run behind that offensive line there’s no reason Dallas should have any other goal.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: It’s worth mentioning that a year ago the Cowboys were known as the NFL’s 8-8 team after going .500 three straight years. They did a great job building a powerhouse team around Murray, but now Murray is gone. If Randle isn’t a good lead back, I’m not sure what the Cowboys are going to do. Then maybe more goes on Romo’s shoulders and it’ll be harder to hide the defense, and a step back to Mediocreville is in the cards.

The crystal ball says: The Cowboys have a solid foundation on offense. The defense isn’t great but coordinator Rod Marinelli is a very good coach and he did a great job last year. Linebacker Sean Lee’s return from injury won’t hurt either. The Eagles and Cowboys should have a spirited battle for the NFC East, and I’ll pick the Cowboys edge them. I do think the Cowboys won’t be quite as good without Murray, and I don’t believe they get a playoff bye or win a conference title with the Seahawks and Packers in line ahead of them.

Previous previews
32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Washington Redskins
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. New York Jets
26. Chicago Bears
25. Cleveland Browns
24. Atlanta Falcons
23. San Francisco 49ers
22. New York Giants
21. New Orleans Saints
20. Houston Texans
19. Carolina Panthers
18. St. Louis Rams
17. Minnesota Vikings
16. San Diego Chargers
15. Buffalo Bills
14. Detroit Lions
13. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Cincinnati Bengals
10. Arizona Cardinals
9. Miami Dolphins