The Cleveland Cavaliers? Gone till November.
Before we begin, I want to remind you of what you just saw:
And what you won’t see for the rest of your life:
(And hopefully what we’ll never have to see again.)
It’s true that a confluence of events led to LeBron James dominating the ball, playing otherworldly minute counts, and getting to shoot whenever he wanted in these NBA Finals. Kevin Love has been out since April, and Kyrie Irving was out for over 85 percent of this series. James “got” to run things as he saw fit, and as a result the massive numbers piled up.
If you’re going to point at that part of the confluence, you have to detail the entire swirl.
James was doing his work against the league’s best defensive squad, and against the best team designed to stop him from dominating. San Antonio could have had its Kawhi Leonard in his eventual way, Atlanta (kind of) had DeMarre Carroll, Chicago had Jimmy Butler, and the Clippers could have had Matt Barnes had they made it out of the West. One guy, each.
Golden State had Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. Four of the best potential LeBron Limiters around, all on the same team, all playing in the same contest as James ran his way toward another 46 minutes.
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LeBron still raged. That confluence, even after five wearying trips to the NBA Finals and a minutes allotment and international history that no other 30-year old NBA star has ever worked through, also included the game’s best player working within his prime. LeBron shot under 40 percent, but he also averaged 35.8 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. He played 275 minutes against the game’s best defense, with the ball in his hands throughout, and turned the ball over just 21 times.
These aren’t normal things. This wasn’t a normal regular season, and these weren’t normal playoffs. At one point nothing James did in his career was normal because of his hubris, because of his lack of tact and the odd way he would save his best performances for when he was the massive underdog, but fail when crossed with expectation, attempting to take on the role of the martyr.
Now, things aren’t normal because of his greatness, and his desperation to get to June with a supporting cast that doesn’t look so damn overmatched.
James has now lost four of six NBA Finals, but nobody but someone you shouldn’t be listening to could blame him for any of those losses beyond his befuddled, embarrassing failure in the face of the Dallas Mavericks (a deserved champion, but still …) in 2011. This year’s Warriors and last year’s San Antonio Spurs, clearly, were far better teams. The 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers shouldn’t even been allowed to play in that year’s Finals after the weigh-in.
This is how it goes in this league. James has had the luxury of playing in the East, but his Finals combatants have also had the luxury of playing against one of the worst conference champions ever in 2007, an injury-riddled mess in 2015, and a top-heavy team with absolutely no depth or chance in 2014.
(And, also, a confused LeBron James in 2011, someone who was doing terrible things to his bedsheets at the time.)
Now, the Cavaliers will try to attempt to do it all over again. Minus the part about LeBron James having to shoot 32 times a game in the Finals.
James can be a free agent this summer, if he wants to be. So can Kevin Love, and so can J.R. Smith. All three own player options that could pay them what they’re probably worth if we ignored superstar inequality and the upcoming TV deal the NBA is set to take in come 2016: $21.5 million, $16.7 million, and $6.4 million respectively.
The (somewhat, as we’ll talk about later) ideal move for both player and team would be for both James and Love to opt-out of their current contracts, and sign a maximum two-year extension with a player option for the 2016-17 season that both would almost certainly decline. This would then allow the Cavaliers to pay both players to work on an astronomical contract extension once the NBA’s salary cap dives over the $90 million mark in the summer of 2016, with the two-years-but-not-really extension acting as a workaround to preserve the players’ Bird Rights and ability to sign for a figure that juts over the salary “cap” line.
Unless something incredible happens between now and the summer of 2016, this will be the route James takes. Love’s adherence to that ideal is less certain, but he’ll still preserve fantastic flexibility should he, for now, commit to the Cavaliers with that mini extension.
It would allow him one more chance, when healthy, to win a title with LeBron in 2015-16, it would still put him in a position to choose any team in the 2016 offseason (even if he had another frustrating year, teams would still talk themselves into throwing max money at a seemingly-underutilized former All-Star), and it would give him the chance to make the most money possible should he decide to stay with the Cavaliers following 2015-16.
Despite his maddening inconsistency, the Cavaliers should covet Smith’s return, and hope that he opts-in and takes his chances on the 2016 market. For various reasons, J.R. Smith has always preferred to get the cash up front, though it is hard to imagine the sort of team that would be willing to take the chance that its culture could turn Smith into a happy and willing contributor despite not working on a sure championship contender like Cleveland. But, hey, you never know what sort of moves Mark Cuban some teams have up their sleeve.
If Love and Smith have had it, and decide to leave, then the Cavs will have major issues replacing them. Kyrie Irving’s five-year, $90 million extension is and will be a major bargain moving forward, but it will align with James’ expected new contract and Anderson Varejao’s nearly eight figure contract to inch toward the last salary cap line of the pre-2016 era.
This is because Tristan Thompson will receive an eight-figure contract of his own this summer from the Cavaliers or some other team as a restricted free agent, and the Cavs will either assign or match that offer. Iman Shumpert may have struggled mightily in the Finals, but the Cavaliers cannot afford to let a versatile defender with occasional offensive pop get away as a restricted free agent. After a rather rough regular season, fellow restricted free agent Matthew Dellavedova will need to be retained as the rare reserve point man with potential. There is also a first-round pick’s salary to consider, and Mike Miller is not going to turn down $2.8 million next in his player option in order to embrace retirement.
All of this will put Cleveland over the luxury tax line again, a tax they paid this season, which would deny them the chance to, say, send Love back to his Oregon home in a sign-and-trade for fellow free agent LaMarcus Aldridge due to NBA luxury tax rules. Tristan Thompson’s massive cap hold – around the $12 million mark that he hopes to either sign for or eclipse – makes it so that the Cavs can’t exactly hold off on their restricted buddies while working with Love to suss things out.
(There is always the chance, however slight, that the Cavs could turn someone like Love into a midseason deal for all time at some point during this run, for all manner of stretchy-sorts, but who has that return package? The NBA watched in horror as two other teams sent the Cavs Mozgov, Smith and Shumpert for draft picks midseason prior to a frighteningly-great Cavalier run. Who is going to step up to be the jerk that puts the Cavs over the top with three or four needed assets in exchange for one frustrated star?)
The Cavaliers’ best case scenario is to retain Love and James with that two-year deal, to pay Thompson what LeBron’s representatives demand, to keep Smith for next season and possibly beyond (he genuinely could be the wild card on a title-winner), and then pay Timofey Mozgov heaps of money after he plays for a bargain team option at just $4.9 million next season. Yes, James Jones, Shawn Marion, Kendrick Perkins will all go away, but even with the limitations of the luxury tax (which limits your cap exception opportunities) you can always find helpers, right?
Miami thought as much with James, and yet it struggled to win a title with those helpers in 2013 against a deeper San Antonio team, and outright failed in keeping up with the Spurs in 2014. Worse than that, Cleveland Cavaliers ownership will pay an astronomical luxury tax bill if all of its dreams come true: James and Love making the veteran max both next year and after the TV revenue increase, with Thompson and eventually Mozgov in the eight figures and Kyrie Irving at the “bargain” price of an average of $18 million a year.
That’s just five players, not including Mr. Shumpert and the potential for J.R.’s return. Brendan Haywood’s non-guaranteed eight-figure contract for next year remains a nice potential trading piece, but this would only mean the Cavaliers sending out potential tax and luxury savings for more role players to go at it once again.
This is the price you have to pay for housing the best player in the game, and attempting to surround him with teammates suitable of his time. It’s not like it was in the 1990s, when Scottie Pippen backed Jordan as the 122nd highest-paid player in the NBA, and Dennis Rodman was working on a $4.5 million deal alongside MJ’s $31 million. Things have changed.
The Cavaliers don’t want to change, save for improved health, next year. They want a chance to follow through on what their potential holds – a championship contender led by a player for the ages. They’ll have to pay.
They’ll try to. Happily, as they should be.
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Kelly Dwyer is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @KDonhoops
