MLB 2015: Five of the best over/under bets
Another place that pushes out projections is Vegas. There, you can legally place your hard-earned “gummy bears” on team over/unders. Gambling on sports is difficult, and the people setting these lines typically know what they are doing. With that in mind, let’s see if we can find five teams whose over/unders might be a little off.
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A few disclaimers before we begin: All of these win totals come from the Bovada Sportsbook (Bovada.lv). Also, I’m an idiot, and you should definitely not take my advice. Here we go!
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Over/Under: 84 1/2 wins
My pick: Over
The Indians won 85 games last season, and return essentially the same club. So, why do we think they’ll improve? Well, Cleveland got nothing from Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher last season. While both of those players are in the decline phase of their careers, anything they contribute will be gravy. On top of that, Jason Kipnis should see somewhat of a bounce back after injuries kept him down in 2014.
The starting rotation, however, is the real reason for optimism in Cleveland. Cy Young winner Corey Kluber should head the staff, but the team has a lot of promising players behind him. Carlos Carrasco broke out in a big way over the second half last year, posting a 1.72 ERA over his final 78 2/3 innings. Danny Salazar was also much better in the second half, and Trevor Bauer hasn’t walked a batter this spring. Any improvement from either player would be huge.
CINCINNATI REDS
Over/Under: 77 1/2 wins
My pick: Under
The simple fact that the Reds will have a healthy Joey Votto and Jay Bruce makes this a dangerous proposition. Still, some team needs to finish near the bottom in the National League Central, and it looks like it could be the Reds. The rotation, in particular, looks iffy. Johnny Cueto is fantastic, and Mike Leake is a known quantity, but the depth behind those guys is thin. Homer Bailey’s return should help, but the team is slated to open the year with veteran Jason Marquis and rookies Anthony Desclafani and Rasiel Iglesias at the back end. That’s worrisome.
Cueto and Leake are also entering the final year of their contracts, and could be used as trade bait if Cincinnati gets off to a bad start. Cueto has said he’ll only negotiate a new deal until the start of the season, so we’ll know by then whether the Reds will lock him up. He’ll be one of the best assets on the market if he’s made available, and could bring the Reds at least one useful part at the deadline. Leake could also be used to get something at the deadline if the team struggles. Trading either player is going to push down the team’s win total, even if there are promising pitcher prospects in the minors.
Over/Under: 78 1/2 wins
My pick: Over
Nobody believes in the Rays. Well, nobody except for Baseball Prospectus. The website’s PECOTA projection system has the Rays slated for 87 wins this season. The projections at FanGraphs aren’t as rosy, but still have the Rays averaging 81.3 wins, enough for them to reach the over.
What exactly is the reason for optimism? Well, Tampa Bay potentially boasts one of the best pitching staffs in the game. Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly may be questionable for opening day, but both players have shown plenty of promise over their careers. Chris Archer is also improving, and Jake Odorizzi increased his value by learning a splitter last season. On top of that, the team should have Matt Moore back after roughly a month or so. Admittedly, the lineup doesn’t look great. But if Evan Longoria can get back to his former level, things will look much better. There’s no powerhouse in the American League East, so the Rays just have to be average in order to hit the over. They can probably do that.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Over/Under: 82 1/2 wins
My pick: Over
If you think the Blue Jays are a playoff team, this is an easy bet. The Blue Jays loaded up during the offseason, bringing in both Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin. Donaldson gives them another middle-of-the-order slugger who could hit 30 bombs. Combine that with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and you have a devastating trio.
Martin is going to help on offense as well, but he should have a bigger impact on the team’s pitching staff. Martin is regarded as one of the top defensive catchers in the game, and an excellent pitch framer. With Marcus Stroman out for the season, the Blue Jays are going with rookies Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris in the rotation. The hope is that Martin’s contributions will help them make it through their first seasons unscathed. The last member of the rotation, Drew Hutchison, is getting some sleeper buzz, and could be in for a nice breakout. The offense should carry them, but the pitching will push them to the over.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Over/Under 81 1/2 wins
My pick: Under
The Yankees lineup is old, and old players often get hurt. The team is counting on both Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran to fill full-time spots. Neither is a bastion of health. We haven’t even talked about Alex Rodriguez yet. Who knows what the 39-year-old will do after a year away from the game. Jacoby Ellsbury is already dinged, though should be ready by opening day. There’s just a lot of risk in the lineup.
That risk extends to the rotation. Masahiro Tanaka has the potential to finish the season as the American League Cy Young winner, but he’ll be pitching on a partially torn UCL all season. If his elbow pops after 13 starts, this team is in big trouble. While both Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda are promising, you can’t count on the latter for a high amount of innings. Eovaldi could be in for a breakout, but he was fairly average with Miami last season. CC Sabathia may never return to his previous levels of performance, and, after last season, it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to handle a massive workload.
There you have it. Five teams who could (should) beat their Vegas projections. Do you agree enough to put your hard-earned gummy bears on any of them?
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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
