This is one of my favorite times of the year for sports.  The opening week of the NCAA Tournament is days away, NBA playoff races are heating up, and fantasy playoffs are either happening or about to happen.  There’s a lot of background noise for fantasy owners to work through, especially as shutdown season starts to pick up. 

Category pushes, fine-tuning your roster, and trying to catch the next great waiver wire pickup make the playing surface slippery – and fantasy fortunes can hinge on a guy like Alexey Shved.

Just like we all planned.   

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THE BIG NUMBERS

BUSTED

INJURIES

Serge Ibaka’s owners got terrible news when it was announced he’ll miss the next 4-6 weeks after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right knee.  Enes Kanter has been a top-50 value this past week and he shouldn’t have been floating on waiver wires, but he’s now a must-own player for the rest of the year.  Steven Adams has a shot at late-round value and has been performing as such this past week, so give him a look if you need a big man. 

Klay Thompson’s timetable isn’t as bad as Ibaka’s but 7-10 days off due to his ankle injury is also a huge blow for owners.  By the time he returns it’s possible the Warriors and Hawks have separated in the race for home court throughout the playoffs, and I’m not sure if the Warriors are going to be swayed by that race when it comes to resting guys. 

I mentioned Justin Holiday as a sleeper in the Fantasy Extra portion of my podcast the other day and a three-game sampling of his value this past week shows early round returns.  Obviously, the numbers are skewed with averages of 2.7 treys and 2.0 steals in just 22.9 mpg, but Steve Kerr is already talking about starting him and when the DNPs start coming for key guys he could very well emerge with 25-plus mpg for the rest of the year.  He really fits the profile of a no-name guy making a name for himself down the stretch, and I’m fine with a 12-team owner taking the plunge here.  

Tobias Harris left last night’s game with an ankle injury and reporters didn’t think it was a big deal at the time, but after giving it a go following a re-taping he quickly tapped out for the night.  I had previously been concerned about the Magic playing it safe with his knee soreness, but this ankle has history.  The Magic have zilch to play for and Harris has to protect his restricted free agency.  The Magic have a terrible schedule going forward.  A widespread Harris owner, I’m mentally preparing for him to be a flawed option of mine down the stretch. 

If things go south for Harris, the guy owners will want to look at is Channing Frye (nine points, 3-of-8 FGs, three treys, eight boards, two assists, zero blocks, 26 minutes).  I laughed when Kyle O’Quinn (five minutes) got into the game last night because we still haven’t gotten any word about what knocked KOQ out of the rotation.  General terribleness? An injury?  Something scintillating?  I win some and I lose some but I’d at least like to know what the story is. 

Dewayne Dedmon (23 minutes, two points, seven boards, two blocks) was limping in the locker room after the game due to his own ankle injury.  I don’t think the team is going to turn to O’Quinn, and they’d love to get something out of Frye to justify his bloated contract.  Frye isn’t anything more than a flier add for competitive leagues or folks in need of threes. 

Matt Barnes missed last night’s game due to a hamstring injury that has apparently been lingering for the past few weeks, which isn’t surprising with his mileage and recent injury history.  The Clippers’ roster, unfortunately, is devoid of talent once you get beyond the obvious names.  It’s actually impressive how bad their bench is considering their owner foams at the mouth on the sidelines and free agents usually flock to championship contenders.  But I digress. 

Kemba Walker took another small step forward last night, scoring 15 points on 3-of-8 shooting (7-of-8 FTs) with two threes, three boards, two assists and one steal in 24 minutes.  He looks fine and Steve Clifford has been beating around the bush a bit, sitting Walker down the stretch in critical moments last night because the car keys on the perimeter are currently held by Mo Williams (18 points, 8-of-15 FGs, two threes, four rebounds, eight assists, one steal, 35 minutes). 

A lot is going on here because the Hornets are fighting for their playoff lives, Al Jefferson has some injury risk, and Williams has to have the ball in his hands to maximize the benefit of his minutes.  He and Walker didn’t look terrible on the court together tonight, but Walker was a bit of a spectator at times and eventually that has to change.  My sense is that Clifford is tip-toeing the line between wanting to win now, knowing Walker is still legitimately rusty, and giving the keys back to Walker. 

I originally thought Williams would lose 2-4 rounds of value with Walker’s return, and then if Jefferson was going to miss time that I would cut that in half, and that’s still where I am.  But I’m filing away the chance Clifford decides that when Mo is on the floor with Kemba, that it’s Mo’s show because he’s certainly not locking anybody down on the other end.  The time to measure that is about 3-4 games away. 

Cody Zeller (shoulder) did not play last night but he’s hoping to return on Friday against the Kings, and that has the potential to eat at Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (10 points, seven boards, one block) and Marvin Williams’ (10 points, 11 rebounds, one three, one steal) value.  I say ‘potential’ because it’s not necessarily a given.  Williams has been sitting on serviceable low-end value for a while and both Zeller and Jefferson are injury risks, but the kicker here is that the Hornets’ schedule is among the league’s best going forward.  MKG has been hot by his standards lately and I don’t think it’ll be a blanket-drop moment for either guy when it’s announced that Zeller is playing again. 

Mike Conley (ankle) missed another game last night and the duo of Beno Udrih (30 minutes, nine points, 3-of-7 FGs, one three, four rebounds, nine assists, one block) and Nick Calathes (18 minutes, four points, two boards, three assists, one steal) took over point guard duties.  They split minutes down the middle in the last outing and Dave Joerger looks like he’ll ride the hot hand, and that means speculating on Udrih’s output last night will carry some risk. 

The Grizzlies don’t play until Sunday so Conley’s absence can be explained in that light, but his injury issues aren’t going away anytime soon.  A silver lining for Conley owners is that the Grizzlies are trying to fix their starting lineup and they’d preferably have him on the floor while doing that.  The Grizzlies also lost some of their cushion for the No. 2 seed and that should also keep them from having an easy decision to rest him.   

Greg Monroe took a night off due to knee soreness and an MRI came back clean, so along with the all-clear report out of Detroit owners can be cautiously optimistic it isn’t threatening his fantasy playoffs.  The Pistons don’t have anything but ping pong balls to play for so any real problem would make him a shutdown risk. 

Pat Beverley was questionable with bursitis in his right (shooting) elbow but played well last night, scoring 12 points on 5-of-12 shooting with two threes, two boards, seven assists and one block.  He has really struggled lately and it’s been a while since I’ve watched him and thought he looked alright, and that’s probably going under the radar as folks size up their playoff predictions.  He is a mid-to-late round producer when things are going well and he has just as good of a shot or maybe even better than the other late-round guys on your waiver wire.  Unless you’re looking at mid-round upside on the wire I’d probably roll the dice on Beverley giving you late-round numbers the rest of the way. 

Tyreke Evans has been dealing with an ankle issue and last night he rattled off 12 points, 10 boards and six assists.  It’s probably not going away for the rest of the season, but as long as the Pelicans are in a battle at the bottom of the West playoff picture he’ll play through quite a bit of pain.  Giannis Antetokounmpo (15 points, nine boards, five assists, three blocks, 36 minutes) isn’t in the same injury boat as Evans, but he’s also playing through an ankle injury and looked good last night.  Once seeding gets hashed out in the East the Bucks may think about some rest, but that’s not happening anytime soon unless he seriously aggravates it. 

I’ve been hammering at you guys about DeMarcus Cousins (calf) and Rudy Gay (knee) for weeks about time off and they’re both questionable for tonight’s game against the Clippers.  Aside from the Kings’ tanking, I don’t think either of them is going to run through a brick wall for anybody in Sacto right now.  In particular with Cousins, the unsavory and misleading leaks that he was somehow holding up the George Karl hiring had a deferred cost at the time – and it’s unclear what kind of charges hit his emotional bank account. 

Cousins alluded to needing time off to rest his body and Karl was quoted in the press as wanting Cousins to play right now.  Karl also made reference to the big man’s agents in another interview – who reportedly aren’t the biggest fans of Karl – and one would think you’d just let that story go away if you’re Sacramento.  I paint the picture so owners get a sense of the potential tension that could be simmering under the surface, and even without that both Cousins and Gay have logged a lot of miles this year so have contingency plans ready.  And if Cousins starts getting painted as a malcontent, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. 

For more injury news check out our injury page.

WELCOME BACK

Michael Carter-Williams (ankle) returned to action last night, scoring six points on 2-of-12 shooting with two rebounds, four assists and a steal in just 25 minutes.  Let’s wait another game before deciding if this injury has the potential to limit him going forward. 

Jerryd Bayless (ankle) is also in the same boat and he scored 14 points with eight rebounds and five assists in 34 minutes.  O.J. Mayo (hamstring) had another false start last week before both he and Jared Dudley (knee) were sent back to Milwaukee to get treatment.  Dudley’s situation doesn’t sound good and the Bucks may opt to play it safe with Mayo, so Bayless may have some deep league appeal. 

PICKUPS

Alexey Shved has made his way into my columns throughout the past few years and he has mostly disappointed.  I’m just lucky that I’ve always carried a stubborn belief that he isn’t dead money in the NBA, because I now own him pretty much everywhere.  He kept his foot on the gas last night with 21 points, one three, three boards, seven assists and three steals in 36 minutes, and if he’s available in your league stop what you’re doing and pick him up. 

I’m going to have my guard up, because Shved has the ability to go in the tank at any time, but hearing Derek Fisher talk about him like a heavier usage guy helps in that area a lot.  Jose Calderon (Achilles) might not play again this year and Tim Hardaway missed another game with his shooting wrist injury.  Shved has had trouble at the foul line lately but that’s not likely to be a long-term thing, and he sits on a nice mid-round upside. 

Omer Asik has been persona non grata in standard leagues due to various deficiencies, but with Ryan Anderson (knee) still without a timetable there’s a window for him to continue producing.  He scored 16 points with 11 rebounds, three assists, one steal and two blocks and he’s been playing well enough to be in lineups. 

I can’t believe I’m writing this but Ersan Ilyasova has been consistent lately.  He added another 15 points, eight rebounds, three treys and a steal over 36 minutes to his game log last night, and he’s been a must-own player in 12-team leagues over the last month.  His value dipped for a bit toward the bottom of the top-150, but he’s back into the top-100 range this past week and everybody around him is ailing. 

THE MIDDLE

With Terrence Jones being all the rage these days, the other two-thirds of their big man triumvirate has slid lately and both Donatas Motiejunas and Josh Smith might have been dropped in your league.  Jones was benched for what sounds like a minor infraction, perhaps being late to a shootaround, and both Motie and Smith picked it up with Jones having a quiet night.  Motiejunas scored 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting (including two threes) with seven boards and four assists in 32 minutes, and Smith scored 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting with two threes of his own, five rebounds, one steal and two blocks in 27 minutes. 

Both big men have been shooting terribly lately and with Dwight Howard out another 10-14 days both could be primed for a bounce-back in fantasy leagues.  The Jones situation doesn’t sound like it’ll be a big deal, but if he cools off after his hot streak it also wouldn’t hurt.  Corey Brewer (13 points, 12 rebounds, one three, three assists, one steal, 28 minutes) has been playing well enough to be in lineups, but I have a hard time telling owners to chase the numbers since his 53.6 percent mark from the field over his last seven games is primed for a regression. 

Other than Alexey Shved, Andrea Bargnani and Langston Galloway, it’s going to be hard to predict which Knicks scrub is going to be useful from night-to-night going forward.  Last night it was Lou Amundson (12 points, 17 boards, two blocks) and Cole Aldrich (three points, seven rebounds, two blocks, 19 minutes) had a solid low-minute outing.  Owners gambling on any of that noise hopefully have the luck of the Irish. 

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored 24 points but hit just 2-of-7 threes and it’s possible he’s about to turn around a nasty slump.  Owners can only view him as a 3-point specialist and he’s got all the risk so beware. 

Jeff Green bounced back from a 17-minute effort on Monday with 21 points, three treys, five boards and two steals in 33 minutes last night.  When the Grizzlies are at full-strength, he’s a late-round guy at best, but there’s an outside chance he gets some extra looks with a lot of their key guys hurting.

DROPS

Anthony Tolliver stepped in for Greg Monroe (knee) for one game last night, scoring 15 points with four threes, seven rebounds and one steal in 32 minutes.  If you grabbed him feel free to pitch him back to the wire.

Tim Hardaway had a few good games last week but his wrist injury derails any progress he made in fantasy leagues.  If you added him during the five-game slate last week, feel free to move on. 

Al-Farouq Aminu (shoulder) is questionable for tonight’s game and for a guy that was returning top-100 value for the bulk of the last month, there’s too much risk to hang on.  Even if he returns quickly and picks up where he left off, the Mavs’ unfavorable schedule makes this a bit of a mess. 

NCAA TOURNEY

I interviewed our own Ed Isaacson and got his thoughts on what to watch for in the NCAA tournament.  If you’re filling out your bracket or want to get his take on who could be interesting in fantasy leagues next season, you can check it out here.