Saves and Steals: All About Steals
We spent the last six weeks reviewing every bullpen in major league baseball. To see the results, follow these links for the NL East, AL East, NL Central, AL Central, NL West, and AL West. While a few potential breakout relievers may have slipped through the cracks, those six articles offer hot takes on nearly every major league reliever.
The astute reader may note that this column is titled Saves and Steals. The latter portion of that title has been ignored over the last six weeks. As such, today will focus solely on base thieves. I’ve created six groups of five players, ranging from elite talents to little known sleepers. The resulting analysis should give everybody a good cross section of names to target.
Editor’s Note: For more than 1,000 player profiles, prospect reports, positional tiers, mock drafts, ADP date, customizable projections and more, get Rotoworld’s MLB Draft Guide.
The Elites
Put simply, these are the five players who I expect to lead the league in stolen bases. They’ll score runs and may even hit for a high average. Just don’t expect much power production.
Entering 2014, there was concern about Hamilton’s ability to stick in the majors. In the past, top speed prospects like Joey Gathright failed to blossom. At the plate, Hamilton hit a meager .250/.292/.355. Despite reaching base at such a low rate, he still swiped 56 bases. Elite defense ensures that he’ll continue to play through any slump at the plate.
There is some cause for positivity with Hamilton. His 7.6 percent swinging strike rate was below the major league average, which means he could improve upon a tepid 19 percent strikeout rate. More balls in play means more opportunity for his blazing speed. He even has surprising pop for a player of his stature. A 10 home run season is not completely out of the question.
Injuries forced the Dodgers to give Gordon another look last year. The result was a .289/.326/.378 line with 64 stolen bases. Andrew Friedman and friends decided to sell high on Gordon, shipping him to Miami for prospects (and eventually Howie Kendrick). Gordon is a high contact speedster without a hint of power. His breakout occurred because his infield fly rate cratered. That allowed him to put his speed to use.
With the Marlins, expect Gordon to play everyday at second base. The club is reported to be among the bidders for Hector Olivera, which could complicate the picture for Gordon. For a speedy player, he lacks defensive value. A shift to the outfield seems long overdue, but the Marlins are stacked out there.
Continuing the theme of this category, Revere is a high contact, no power runner. He’s the spit of Juan Pierre, right down to the wet paper arm. He hit his first major league home run last season. Then he hit another. He puts almost everything on the ground. He’ll leadoff for the Phillies, but don’t be surprised to see a contender acquire him as an ideal fourth outfielder.
After winning the batting title last season, Altuve is probably the best player in this category. Like Revere, he rarely strikes out. He’s unlikely to replicate his .341/.377/.453 line, but a high average with 35 steals should be easily attained. His contact rate was the sixth best in baseball at 91.1 percent. Unlike the other players in this tier, Altuve has doubles power. He smashed 57 extra base hits – 47 of which were doubles.
I fudged a bit to push one player down to the next group. Even though he only stole 27 bases last year, Andrus is a reasonable bet to rebound. He trained harder this last offseason than in years past. While it’s easy to slough off “Best Shape” stories, there can be some merit to them. A re-focused Andrus probably reaches base at a better clip and improves upon his caught stealing rate. With a healthy season, I expect about 40 steals.
The Multi-Threats
To qualify, I’m looking for players who possess 30 steal upside with strong production in multiple categories and at least some power.
When the Yankees signed Ellsbury, I predicted a return to 20 home run power. He came close with 16 blasts. The short right field porch should continue to boost his power numbers. He hit third for the Yankees last season, but it’s unclear if he’ll reprise that role or bat leadoff. Where he hits will obviously affect his runs and RBI. As the three-hole, he’s a five category monster. Before you invest, don’t forget his injury history.
Gomez is the crown prince of five category players. Entering his age 29 season, I have some concern about his stolen base rate. Some power hitters scale back the base running to remain fresher at the plate. The Brewers finally started to use Gomez in the heart of the order last season. This spring, manager Ron Roenicke is deciding between Gomez and Scooter Gennett as the leadoff man. If Gomez hits first, it reduces him to a four category player. He’ll still drive in more runs than most leadoff hitters.
Marte is a little different than the others here. While he features good power, he rarely hits fly balls. The result is 10 to 15 home run pop. He generally bats near the top of the Pirates lineup. He’s an aggressive hitter, but it’s good for his profile. He has a high whiff rate, so it makes sense to put early-count pitches into play. He probably won’t drive in many RBI, but he should contribute to the other four categories.
Entering his age 32 season, Reyes’ power has declined in recent seasons. Once considered an annual threat to hit 15 home runs (he rarely did), he’s now a guy who will push about 10 bombs. He bats atop a potent Blue Jays lineup. A healthy season should result in over 100 runs scored with a good average and about 30 steals. The bottom of the Jays order is weak, so RBI might be rare.
Desmond has three consecutive 20-20 seasons. He’s never stolen over 25 bases, so he possesses less upside in the steals department. Since he’ll hit somewhere around the middle of the Nationals lineup, we’re looking at plenty of RBI. He can hit for a decent average, but don’t rely upon it. He strikes out frequently.
We spent the last six weeks reviewing every bullpen in major league baseball. To see the results, follow these links for the NL East, AL East, NL Central, AL Central, NL West, and AL West. While a few potential breakout relievers may have slipped through the cracks, those six articles offer hot takes on nearly every major league reliever.
The astute reader may note that this column is titled Saves and Steals. The latter portion of that title has been ignored over the last six weeks. As such, today will focus solely on base thieves. I’ve created six groups of five players, ranging from elite talents to little known sleepers. The resulting analysis should give everybody a good cross section of names to target.
Editor’s Note: For more than 1,000 player profiles, prospect reports, positional tiers, mock drafts, ADP date, customizable projections and more, get Rotoworld’s MLB Draft Guide.
The Elites
Put simply, these are the five players who I expect to lead the league in stolen bases. They’ll score runs and may even hit for a high average. Just don’t expect much power production.
Entering 2014, there was concern about Hamilton’s ability to stick in the majors. In the past, top speed prospects like Joey Gathright failed to blossom. At the plate, Hamilton hit a meager .250/.292/.355. Despite reaching base at such a low rate, he still swiped 56 bases. Elite defense ensures that he’ll continue to play through any slump at the plate.
There is some cause for positivity with Hamilton. His 7.6 percent swinging strike rate was below the major league average, which means he could improve upon a tepid 19 percent strikeout rate. More balls in play means more opportunity for his blazing speed. He even has surprising pop for a player of his stature. A 10 home run season is not completely out of the question.
Injuries forced the Dodgers to give Gordon another look last year. The result was a .289/.326/.378 line with 64 stolen bases. Andrew Friedman and friends decided to sell high on Gordon, shipping him to Miami for prospects (and eventually Howie Kendrick). Gordon is a high contact speedster without a hint of power. His breakout occurred because his infield fly rate cratered. That allowed him to put his speed to use.
With the Marlins, expect Gordon to play everyday at second base. The club is reported to be among the bidders for Hector Olivera, which could complicate the picture for Gordon. For a speedy player, he lacks defensive value. A shift to the outfield seems long overdue, but the Marlins are stacked out there.
Continuing the theme of this category, Revere is a high contact, no power runner. He’s the spit of Juan Pierre, right down to the wet paper arm. He hit his first major league home run last season. Then he hit another. He puts almost everything on the ground. He’ll leadoff for the Phillies, but don’t be surprised to see a contender acquire him as an ideal fourth outfielder.
After winning the batting title last season, Altuve is probably the best player in this category. Like Revere, he rarely strikes out. He’s unlikely to replicate his .341/.377/.453 line, but a high average with 35 steals should be easily attained. His contact rate was the sixth best in baseball at 91.1 percent. Unlike the other players in this tier, Altuve has doubles power. He smashed 57 extra base hits – 47 of which were doubles.
I fudged a bit to push one player down to the next group. Even though he only stole 27 bases last year, Andrus is a reasonable bet to rebound. He trained harder this last offseason than in years past. While it’s easy to slough off “Best Shape” stories, there can be some merit to them. A re-focused Andrus probably reaches base at a better clip and improves upon his caught stealing rate. With a healthy season, I expect about 40 steals.
The Multi-Threats
To qualify, I’m looking for players who possess 30 steal upside with strong production in multiple categories and at least some power.
When the Yankees signed Ellsbury, I predicted a return to 20 home run power. He came close with 16 blasts. The short right field porch should continue to boost his power numbers. He hit third for the Yankees last season, but it’s unclear if he’ll reprise that role or bat leadoff. Where he hits will obviously affect his runs and RBI. As the three-hole, he’s a five category monster. Before you invest, don’t forget his injury history.
Gomez is the crown prince of five category players. Entering his age 29 season, I have some concern about his stolen base rate. Some power hitters scale back the base running to remain fresher at the plate. The Brewers finally started to use Gomez in the heart of the order last season. This spring, manager Ron Roenicke is deciding between Gomez and Scooter Gennett as the leadoff man. If Gomez hits first, it reduces him to a four category player. He’ll still drive in more runs than most leadoff hitters.
Marte is a little different than the others here. While he features good power, he rarely hits fly balls. The result is 10 to 15 home run pop. He generally bats near the top of the Pirates lineup. He’s an aggressive hitter, but it’s good for his profile. He has a high whiff rate, so it makes sense to put early-count pitches into play. He probably won’t drive in many RBI, but he should contribute to the other four categories.
Entering his age 32 season, Reyes’ power has declined in recent seasons. Once considered an annual threat to hit 15 home runs (he rarely did), he’s now a guy who will push about 10 bombs. He bats atop a potent Blue Jays lineup. A healthy season should result in over 100 runs scored with a good average and about 30 steals. The bottom of the Jays order is weak, so RBI might be rare.
Desmond has three consecutive 20-20 seasons. He’s never stolen over 25 bases, so he possesses less upside in the steals department. Since he’ll hit somewhere around the middle of the Nationals lineup, we’re looking at plenty of RBI. He can hit for a decent average, but don’t rely upon it. He strikes out frequently.
The Young Guns
In this corner, we have five unestablished players who could steal between 25 and 30 bases with a full season. In all but one case, these are players who could graduate to the multi-threat list.
Everybody is in on Betts. He’s a universal preseason favorite. He features a high contact rate, on base skills, 15 home run power, and 30 steal speed. The Red Sox have a roster crunch to sort through, but most analysts expect Betts to hit leadoff. The 22-year-old could return first round value with four category production.
Among Boston’s embarrassment of riches is Castillo. A minor oblique injury could be enough for him to be sent to the minors for the first few weeks. Expect it to be a short stay. With just 79 professional plate appearances – 40 in the majors – it’s hard to form clear expectations for Castillo. He appears to possess 10 to 20 home run power with 15 to 30 steal potential. He’s likely to hit down in the order until he establishes some baselines.
The Jays plan to break camp with Pompey in the outfield. He reminds me of Jackie Bradley Jr., which isn’t a good thing. A high whiff rate hints at the potential for a return to the minors. If he sticks in the majors, he has good instincts on the bases. His speed doesn’t compare to a guy like Hamilton, but he can still swipe 20 to 30 bags with regular play. There is potential for 10 home runs or decent run production, but it’s unlikely to come this season.
Polanco was one of the highest touted prospect debuts last season. As prospects sometimes do, he flopped in his initial engagement. Though he hit just .235/.307/.343, he flashed the power and speed that could make him a special player. His contact rate hovered around league average, but he had trouble consistently squaring up the ball.
The 23-year-old seems like the type who may need to develop over several seasons. Full time play could result in 10 to 15 home runs with 25 stolen bases. Watch out for the infield depth. If Polanco scuffles, Josh Harrison could take some reps.
Pollock falls into the fake sleeper category this year. In 287 plate appearances, he hit .302/.353/.498 with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases. He’ll bat atop the Diamondbacks order. Be wary about projecting more power. He’s never hit more than eight home runs in a professional season. I believe he has 15 home run power, but keep the downside in mind. He’s a contact hitter, so he should continue to reach base.
Breakout Veterans
Last season, Todd Frazier came out of nowhere to swipe 20 bases. Let’s speculate on a few potential surprise base thieves. Please note my use of the word “speculate.” I continue to maintain that it was impossible to predict Frazier’s surge on the bases, so this could be an exercise in futility.
The White Sox leadoff man stole only 15 bases in 24 attempts last season. He has the speed and instincts to improve upon those numbers. He rarely hits fly balls (about 20 percent), and his contact rate is well above league average. He won’t hit for much power or drive in runs, but he can contribute to three categories. He should play very often.
The Reds clearly encourage base thievery. Even though 2014 was his worst season in the majors, Bruce stole a career high 12 bases. He hit .218/.281/.373, so it’s not like he had a lot of opportunities. A more typical Bruce season combined with last year’s steal rate would lead to around 18 to 20 swipes. It’s dangerous to extrapolate results, but it’s not a blind gamble.
The Angels leadoff hitter tallied five steals in 2014, but he demonstrated good awareness on the base paths. His best minor league season included 20 steals (back in 2011). He can’t afford to give away outs in front of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. Still, it’s easy for a pitcher to forget about a marginal stolen base threat when facing elite hitters. Maybe 20 steals is a stretch, but 15 wouldn’t shock me.
Utley is a gamer. While his speed isn’t what it used to be, the Phillies plan to rest him more frequently this season. That should mean fresher legs. Teams aren’t likely to take the Phillies very seriously, so Utley may be forgotten at times. A 20 steal season would be his second highest total, and it should be viewed as very unlikely. If you own Utley, it’s because he has modest five category production at a weak position. Any stolen bases are a bonus.
Puig has developed a reputation for bonehead base running, but he also has all the necessary components of a regular runner. If he was smarter on the bases, the Dodgers would probably let him take 20 to 25 bases. There are few players with Puig’s overall upside.
The Rebounds
Some stolen base threats struggled in 2014. Here are five who could bounce back to prominence.
Now we’re talking about some sleepers. Young has never been good, but he did swipe 46 bags in 2013. The Braves are talking about starting the year with him in center field. He’ll eventually lose playing time to Melvin Upton, and he’ll probably be cut at some point. For the first few weeks, he could be a source of completely free steals.
Rios is one of the most frustrating players in all of fantasy baseball. His power and stolen base totals yo-yo all over the place year-to-year. Last season was a double dud – four home runs and 17 steals. The 2013 season included 18 home runs and 42 steals. Personally, I’m staying far away from Rios unless he falls late in the draft. He’s just 34, so he could recapture some power and steal over 20 bases.
Segura suffered through a tragic season and not because of his performance. He lost his nine-month old son early in the year. While he isn’t an exciting player, he has the speed and contact ability to hit .270 with 30 stolen bases. He’s cheap in most leagues, although some people are buying a full bounceback. He should be more focused this season.
Last relevant in 2012, Bourn is trying to provide Cleveland with some value. He’s struggled with health – especially his hamstrings. That’s bad news for a speed guy. If he’s right, he has 30 steal upside with some other positive attributes. Make no mistake, Bourn is a lottery ticket for fantasy owners.
Victorino missed most of last season. Now he’s healthy and supposedly in line to start for the Red Sox. Most pundits expect Victorino to be traded so Hanley Ramirez, Betts, and Castillo can form the starting outfield. Victorino tallied 21 steals in 2013 and 39 in 2012, so there is a chance he’ll run wild. It’s just a question of where he’ll land.
Who?
This group of players could skizzle their way into regular playing time at some point this season. If they do, you may want to use them for waiver wire steals. They probably aren’t worth a long term investment outside of extremely deep leagues.
One of two Rule 5 picks made by the Phillies, Herrera has performed well enough to make the team. He’s unlikely to do anything for fantasy owners besides steal bases, although there is a whiff of upside in his power and contact skills (think small). Herrera is of immediate interest in dynasty formats. Anything shallower can wait to learn more about him.
Burns has fantastic, game changing speed. He also has very questionable contact skills. It’s not that he whiffs often, he just doesn’t hit the ball hard. Any kind of breakthrough at the plate could unleash an under-the-radar version of Hamilton. Don’t count on it. If you found ways to deploy guys like Jarrod Dyson or Terrance Gore last season, Burns might be worth a look.
Astros starting shortstop Jed Lowrie is quite familiar with the trainer’s table. Top prospect Carlos Correa is at least half a season away. As such, an early season injury to Lowrie could open playing time for Villar. He’s also a trade candidate. If he plays, he has 30 to 50 steal potential. There is way too much swing-and-miss in this profile, but he does have 10 home run power. If he made more contact, he’d be a major league second baseman. His defense rates poorly at short.
Johnson, a prospect for the White Sox, is often described as a running back. He has that explosive first step which allows his plus speed to play up. He stole 84 bases in 2013 across three levels, but he settled for just 22 last season. He could receive a shot at some point in 2015. Per reports, his hit tool needs further refinement.
Last but not least, Perez is on the Braves’ 40-man roster. He’s hit fine this spring, and the club is a disaster area in the outfield with guys like Zoilo Almonte, Young, Upton, Nick Markakis, and Johnny Gomes among the favorites for playing time. Perez never received a fair shake with the Nationals, yet he’s produced in the upper minors. Last year, he stole 20 bases in 238 Triple-A plate appearances. The speed is there to produce an interesting project.
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