Three things the selection committee got right and three it got wrong
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What it got right: The No. 1 seeds
If choosing between the contenders to join Kentucky on the No. 1 seed line was one of the committee’s most daunting task, then credit it for a very fair decision.
Villanova (32-2) was likely the most obvious choice by virtue of its Big East regular season and conference tournament titles and its 18 RPI top 100 wins. Duke (29-4) belonged on the top seed line as well even without winning the ACC regular season or tournament titles because it had beaten Wisconsin and Virginia on the road and owned the best collection of quality wins of any team in the nation.
The tougher call was between Wisconsin, Virginia and Arizona for the last No. 1 seed. The Cavaliers may have had the strongest résumé, but the committee’s decision to give that last spot to the Badgers was a very reasonable choice. Virginia hasn’t performed like a No. 1 seed since Justin Anderson’s thumb injury and appendectomy, Arizona has three losses to sub-100 RPI opponents and Wisconsin captured the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles in impressive fashion.
What it got wrong: UCLA making the field
Had UCLA been one of the at-large teams sent to the First Four to play for a spot in the main draw, that still would have been a controversial inclusion. The Bruins avoiding the First Four altogether and receiving a No. 11 seed was even more stunning.
UCLA made the field despite a 2-8 record in road games and only four wins against opponents ranked in the RPI top 100. Quality home wins against Utah and Oregon and a strong showing against Arizona in a Pac-12 semifinal loss certainly bolstered the Bruins’ case, but bubble teams Colorado State and Temple both had stronger profiles and First Four-bound Dayton’s isn’t even comparable.
Committee chair Scott Barnes said on the selection show that the committee included UCLA because it felt the Bruins were “gaining steam” late in the season. Gaining steam? Of their four most recent wins, two were against last-place Pac-12 team USC and the other two were at home against also-rans Washington and Washington State. That’s hardly much of a case for inclusion.
What the committee got right: The regions are pretty balanced
One of the big controversies when last year’s bracket was unveiled was the lack of balance among the four regions. The Midwest Region was absurdly stacked as it featured unbeaten Wichita State, national powers Duke and Michigan, a surging, underseeded Louisville and preseason No. 1 Kentucky.
There were no such issues this year as the four regions look pretty even. You can quibble that the East may be a little weaker with Villanova and Virginia as its top two seeds, but even that balances out with dangerous Oklahoma and underseeded Northern Iowa in that region, as well as Louisville, Providence and Michigan State.
Concern that Wisconsin and Kentucky might end up in the same region became a non-issue when the Badgers played their way onto the No. 1 seed line. The Wildcats’ draw is favorable with Kansas as their No. 2 seed, but they’ve earned the right to have the weakest No. 2 seed in their bracket. Plus, third-seeded Notre Dame is a potentially challenging matchup for the Wildcats and fourth-seeded Maryland easily could have been a No. 3.
What the committee got wrong: Dayton as the last at-large team in the field
Had UConn beaten SMU in the American Athletic Conference title game on Sunday, the at-large hopeful the Huskies would have stolen a bid from was Dayton. That’s unfathomable considering many believed that the Flyers would land around the No. 9 seed line.
Dayton has seven RPI top 100 victories this season including wins over NCAA tournament-bound VCU and Ole Miss and bubble snubs Texas A&M and Rhode Island. The Flyers also have a top 40 KenPom ranking, a top 30 RPI and only one loss to a team outside the RPI top 100. Is that the profile of one of the nation’s elite teams? No. Is it the profile of a team that belongs in the First Four this year? Not even close.
Compare that to Georgia, which got in easily as a No. 10 seed. The Bulldogs have eight RPI top 100 wins — zero against the top 50 — and two losses outside the top 100. Sounds pretty similar to Dayton, huh? The worst part about the Dayton snub is it doesn’t only hurt the Flyers. First Four opponent Boise State now has to win a veritable road game to make the main field.
What it got right: Early-round matchups with compelling storylines
It’s hard to believe the selection committee pays no attention to storylines when it creates NCAA tournament matchups, and this year’s draw is a perfect reason why. Between regional rivalries, mentor-pupil face-offs and rematches of previous classic games, there will be numerous made-for-TV contests during the opening weekend.
Wichita State fans will probably deal with being underseeded as a No. 7 seed because of the possibility the Shockers will finally get their long-awaited dream game against No. 2 seed Kansas if they both win round-of-64 games. We also could have a battle between Ohio State coach Thad Matta and his former Xavier assistant Sean Miller if the Buckeyes advance to meet Arizona in the round of 32.
Other fun games on the horizon: Larry Brown facing off against his former school in a UCLA-SMU opening-round tussle, Steve Masiello potentially facing his alma mater if Manhattan can advance to face Kentucky in the round of 64 and potential rematch of last year’s Sweet 16 matchup if Virginia and Michigan State both survive their opening-round tests.
What it got wrong: Georgetown as a No. 4 seed.
One team is 27-6. The other is 21-10. One team boasts a 5-4 record against the RPI top 50. The other is 4-10. One team has eight victories over NCAA tournament teams. The other has five.
Sounds like two teams who probably should be on different seed lines, right? Apparently not. Maryland and Georgetown both received No. 4 seeds from the committee even though the Terrapins have a résumé that might have been worthy of a No. 3 seed and the Hoyas probably merited no better than a No. 6.
The one thing that did not work out in Georgetown’s favor is the draw it got. It will have to travel across the country to Portland to face high-scoring, up-tempo Big Sky champion Eastern Washington, a team that already defeated Indiana this season. Given the Hoyas’ history with double-digit NCAA tournament teams — Florida Gulf Coast, Ohio and Davidson ring any bells? — Georgetown might have been better off with a worse seed and a different opponent.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
